We’re headed for the TUF season 11 finale this weekend, and if our predictions are anything to go by then we should be prepared to see a lot of judges scorecards on Saturday night.
Court McGee Vs Kris McCray
Both fighters in this seasons final are in the unusual position of having being eliminated earlier in the show and then brought back in later. The two men made the most of the opportunity and are now within touching distance of the UFC contract.
There’s no questioning either fighter’s hearts, both men have proven they will give everything they’ve got for the cause. I think McGee is the more well rounded fighter though and he’s got more fights and far more rounds under his belt. I like him to take a decision victory here.
My Pick: Court McGee to win by decision.
Matt Hamill Vs Keith Jardine
After back-to-back knockout defeats there’s big question marks over Keith Jardine’s chin going into this match-up. Matt Hamill is not the deadliest striker he’s faced recently but he will get inside and land some powerful blows.
If that doesn’t work out then he’s always got his wrestling to fall back on to cause more Jardine more problems. It’s still possible that Jardine’s awkward stand-up style could bemuse Hamill, he has beaten the likes of Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin and Brandon Vera after all, but I favor Hamill’s skill-set and overall toughness to win out here.
My Pick: Matt Hamill to win by decision.
Chris Leben Vs Aaron Simpson
The trials and tribulations of Chris Leben are well documented, and even though we’re many years removed from his show-stealing antics on TUF season 1, in more recent times he still appears to be battling his demons. That means your never sure which Leben your going to see, and it’s questionable how much he’s improved over the years as he still seems to rely heavily on landing one fight ending punch despite having the potential to be more than just a slugger.
Meanwhile Aaron Simpson is an ever improving fighter despite being 35 years of age. He has a very strong wrestling background, excellent cardio, and proved in his last fight that there’s no quit in him, all of which should come in very handy against Leben and I believe will earn him a decision victory.
My Pick: Aaron Simpson to win by decision.
Spencer Fisher Vs Dennis Siver
No stranger to stand-up scraps, Spencer Fisher appears set for another one against Dennis Siver who, despite having won a number of his fights by submission, appears to be happy striking with his opponents lately, affording him ample opportunities to throw his remarkably accurate spinning back kicks.
If it does stay standing I think Fisher will be the busier of the two though and have more success in the exchanges. If it goes to the mat at any stage I don’t think Siver will be able to give Fisher the kind of problems that Joe Stevenson did in his last fight. overall Fisher’s fought tougher opponents throughout his career and should have enough in the locker to overcome a solid but not spectacular opponent like Siver.
My Pick: Spencer Fisher to win by decision.
Jamie Yager Vs Rich Attonito
After being branded a quitter on the TUF show, season 11’s villain Jamie Yager will be looking to prove his critics wrong against Rich Attonito. He certainly has some good weapons in his arsenal to help him do so, particularly a dangerous assortment of kicks, but he’s still a relative novice with a record of just 2-1 and if you look past his eye-catching style there’s holes which Attonito can exploit.
Attonito was unlucky to be eliminated from the competition due to a broken hand, and I like his chances here. Rather than stand and trade with Yager I expect him to get inside and take him to the mat where he’ll outwrestle and outwork him. You can’t teach heart and though I don’t think Yager will quit again, I think the will to keep fighting will evaporate in the later rounds.
My Pick: Tom Attonito to win by TKO in the third round.
Prelims: (Predicted winners highlighted in bold)
John Gunderson Vs Mark Holst
Brad Tavares Vs Seth Baczyinski
Kyle Noke Vs Josh Bryant
James Hammortree Vs Chris Camozzi
James McSweeney Vs Travis Browne