UFC Fight Night 111 takes place in the early hours of Saturday morning in Singapore and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Holly Holm vs. Bethe Correia
Holm seeemed to have the world at her feet after KO’ing Ronda Rousey in late 2015, but she’s been unable to fully capitalize on that, instead slumping to a three-fight losing streak.
To be fair, in a couple of those fights she wasn’t far off winning, but if you look at her UFC run as a whole so far, there have been a number of uninspiring performances.
Holm’s best asset is that she’s an excellent athlete who is quick, moves well and is as fresh in the fifth round as she was in the first. Technically she’s also sound, but she doesn’t have a great deal of power and tends to take on the role of a ‘cardio kickboxer’, often just exhailing loudly while swatting at thin air from range rather than genuinely looking to land hurtful blows.
Correia on the other hand has none of Holm’s athleticism, but she’s tough, she applies pressure and she does sit down on her punches, making her a genuine threat, even if she’s not a proven KO artist.
This isn’t an easy fight for Holm, particularly when she’s down on her luck, but I think she’ll be able to edge out Correia here by using her athleticism to play matador to the bull and having more energy in the later rounds.
Holly Holm to win by decision.
Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcin Tybura
At first glance this might seem like an easier fight for Arlovski after years of going up against big-name, established stars, but don’t be fooled as Tybura shows real promise, and at this stage of his career, it’s hard to feel confident about ‘The Pit Bull’ regardless of the opposition.
After all, Arlovski is currently riding a four-fight losing streak, including three stoppages due to strikes. That being said, he is still a major threat offensively, but his good work there can quickly be undone if he’s caught on that fragile chin.
As for Tybura, he’s a former M-1 champion who has the power to pose Arlovski problems and is dangerous offensively on the feet and on the mat. He can also take a punch too, and I like his chances of catching Arlovski and putting him away inside of 10 minutes.
Marcin Tybura to win by TKO in Rd2.
Colby Covington vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Covington has been on a great run in the UFC, winning six of his first seven fights, and he’s now getting his toughest test to date, facing one of the division’s most consistent campaigners in Kim, who has won 14 of his 17 fights in the promotion.
The key to Kim’s success is that he is an excellent grappler who can shut down fighters on the mat, but in recent years he has shown he can finish fights on the feet too if he chooses to, though that’s a far riskier proposition as he can be quite reckless in that regard.
Covington is also a talented wrestler with some gradually improving striking to back it up, so neither fighter has a definitive advantage in this match-up.
This is a close one and it’s hard to pick against Kim given his tried and tested track record, but I think he’ll struggle to impose his grappling game here and instead will have to engage on the feet, where defensive lapses and overexertion will enable Covington to capitalize and come out on top on the scorecards.
Colby Covington to win by decision.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Tarec Saffiedine
It’ll be interesting to see how former lightweight champion Dos Anjos fares at welterweight now that he doesn’t have to deal with that tough weight cut.
Saffiedine is a challenging first test as he’s an excellent kickboxer, but RDA can match him in that regard, fights at a tremendous pace that many opponents struggle to keep up with and and is the more well rounded fighter, meaning that he will have a big advantage if the fight hits the floor.
With that in mind, though there’s a slight hesitation given that we’ve never seen him compete at 170lbs before, I like RDA’s chances to get off to a winning start in his new division, with his pace and pressure proving too much for Saffiedine to deal with.
Rafael dos Anjos to win by decision.
Prelims: (Predicted winners in bold)
Takanori Gomi vs. Jon Tuck
Cyril Asker vs. Walt Harris
Alex Caceres vs. Rolando Gabriel Dy
Justin Scoggins vs. Ulka Sasaki
Li Jingliang vs. Frank Camacho
Russell Doane vs. Kwan Ho Kwak
Naoki Inoue vs. Carls John de Tomas
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Lucie Pudilova