UFC 304 takes place tomorrow night in Manchester, England and we’ve got all the predictions below.
Main Card
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Welterweight champion Leon Edwards is on a 13-fight winning streak and will be attempting to defend the belt for the third time on Saturday night when he fights Belal Muhammad, who’s on a 10-fight unbeaten run.
This is a rematch as they previously fought in March of 2021, with Edwards getting the better of the first round action on that occasion. However, the bout then ended in a no-contest ruling just seconds into the 2nd round after Muhammad suffered an eyepoke that left him unable to continue. The 32-year-old Edwards striking ability was on display in that fight as he was able to rock Muhammad with a head kick in the 1st round – a weapon that of course also famously won him the title in the 5th round of his fight with Kamaru Usman. He was also clearly the harder puncher of the two in that fight, but it should be stressed that Edwards isn’t typically a knockout machine, and instead tends to fight in a controlled and even at times cautious fashion, relying on good technical ability to land clean strikes, while also having good footwork and distance management. It’s also worth noting that during his UFC run there’s been times when he’s leaned heavily on a more grinding, wrestling-based strategy and has proven to have good control on top as well as offering the occasional threat via submission.
Like Edwards, the 36-year-old Muhammad is also a well-rounded fighter. He’s not as hard-hitting, fast or technically slick as Edwards in the striking department, but he’s still solidly capable, applies pressure well, has the cardio to maintain a high work-rate and just has a knack for making the most of his skill-set to exceed expectations. Muhammad is also good in the clinch and is a strong wrestler, which is something I’d expect him to be looking to utilize more in this rematch given how things went last time.
I think Edwards will come into this fight with a lot of confidence and rightly so, but Muhammad remains a genuine challenge, and if he can apply more pressure and bring his wrestling into the equation more then it’ll be an interesting challenge for the champion. However, I do think it’s a test that Edwards will pass, with his wrestling being good enough to prevent Muhammad from playing spoiler, while on the feet his ability and power should make it a tough night for the challenger. A finish is definitely possible, but given that Edwards can err on the side of caution at times I’ll say he settles for a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Leon Edwards wins by decision.
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Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
A KO win over Sergei Pavlovich last time out earned Tom Aspinall the interim heavyweight title and now he’ll look to defend it against Curtis Blaydes, who is coming off a knockout win against Jailton Almeida.
These two have already gone up against each other in the UK two years ago, but the fight only lasted 15 seconds before Aspinall suffered a freak knee injury that left him unable to continue, resulting in the only TKO loss of his career. After a lengthy layoff Aspinall picked up right where he left off though, showing impressing finishing ability by racking up too more first round victories via strikes. The 31-year-old Aspinall is not just your typically big heavyweight slugger though as despite tipping the scales close to the limit he’s actually an athletic fighter who is light on his feet, has fast hands and is a threat wherever the fight goes. He’s a well-versed boxer who Tyson Fury has trained with and believed was good enough to turn pro, but he’s comfortable landing kicks, elbows and knees too. Meanwhile, unusually for a UK fighter he trained wrestling at an early age, and in addition to that also went on to become a BJJ black belt. The only real downside to all this is that he’s been ending fights so quickly and comfortably that we’ve yet to see his defensive skills in all areas fully tested, as well as his cardio, having never been beyond the 2nd round in a fight.
The 33-year-old Blaydes is another big heavyweight who benefits from being athletic and well-rounded. Blaydes wrestling is particularly good and enables him to land takedowns with authority, and he’s strong on top and makes up for his lack of a submission threat by having mean ground-and-pound. On the feet he’s not a particularly aggressive fighter and generally sticks to the basics with technically proficient boxing fundamentals and leg kicks, while he also moves well. Blaydes has run in to trouble against heavy-handed strikers in the past, with strikes accounting for all four of his UFC losses and he can be particularly vulnerable when transitioning from striking into his takedown attempts.
On the feet I do feel Aspinall has a significant advantage here both in power and technique as well as being more willing to press the action. So Blaydes would do well to make use of his wrestling and really test the interim champ on the mat. However, to do so He’ll have to close the distance and that’ll be easier said than done without taking damage, while Aspinall’s BJJ means he could pose a threat with submissions or sweeps on the mat. As such I favor Aspinall here and think he’ll find a TKO finish in the 2nd round if not sooner.
Pick: Tom Aspinall wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
Bobby Green is currently ranked No.15 in the lightweight division after a convincing victory over Jim Miller at UFC 300 and now goes up against Paddy Pimblett, who has gone 5-0 in the UFC so far.
A couple of months away from his 38th birthday Green is playing the role of gatekeeper here as Pimblett tries to prove he’s worthy of a spot on the rankings. Green is a savvy striker with an unorthodox boxing-based approach who uses the philly shell, attacks from unexpected angles and will use fakes, traps and taunts to try to unsettle his opponents and open up opportunities to land his own strikes. He relies quite a bit on his natural reactions and durability to make his style work, and that’s becoming more of a problem as those attributes start to weaken with age, and that can be seen in the fact that despite having some notable successes of late, he’s also been finished three times via strikes in the past two-and-a-half years. Beyond his striking Green has respectable takedown defense and is quite defensively sound on the mat.
The 29-year-old Pimblett was tipped as a potential future star before joining the UFC, though perhaps as much for his charismatic personality than just his fighting ability. He’s a fighter who likes to entertain and will take the fight to his opponents on the feet. He’s not the cleanest striker and can be quite scrappy at times, but he does have natural power and a strong chin. That’s just as well though as he leaves his head wide open to be hit at times and he’s had to show off his good powers of recovery after being rocked more than once in his UFC run so far. Meanwhile, Pimblett can also wrestle, while his best asset is his crafty submission game that’s typically offered up his best chance of finding a finish. Even there it’s not all gone his way though and he was perhaps lucky to emerge with a decision win against Jared Gordon, while his cardio can also be a concern at times too.
There’s enough holes in Pimblett’s game that any match-up against a ranked lightweight opponent is going to be tricky for him. He is enough of an offensive threat that no-one can afford to take him lightly though and so Green will have to be careful. That being said, I do think that Green will have little trouble finding Pimblett’s chin in this fight, and though he’s not the biggest hitter I think the cumulative effect of his punches could well take their toll by the 2nd round, leading to a TKO finish.
Pick: Bobby Green wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Christian Leroy Duncan has won three out of four UFC fights so far, stopping each of his opponents by TKO in the process to go 10-1 overall. Now he will be going up against Gregory Rodrigues, who is 4-1 in his last five fights and like CLD has stopped each opponent via strikes.
The 29-year-old Duncan is a former Cage Warriors champion who is entertaining to watch with his dangerous and dynamic striking ability. He’s a big middleweight with a 79″ reach, which will give him an extra 4″ over Rodrigues on Saturday night. He’s a creative striker and loves to unleash eye-catching techniques, including spinning attacks and jumping knees without warning, while at close quarters he goes to work with heavy elbows and uppercuts. He’s not as comfortable when he’s the one being put on the back foot though and his offensive approach does leave holes in his defense, but on the plus side he’s also shown off a pretty capable ground game at times lately and has also never been finished in his career to date.
The 32-year-old Rodrigues has a strong background in BJJ and is a good wrestler, but it would often be hard to tell since he is generally far more interested in battling it out on the feet. And ‘Robocop’ can be a real menace in that regard too as he stalks his opponents, is explosive when he attacks and has an impressive knack for ending fights with his fists. That being said, he is the kind of striker who is willing to eat strikes to deliver his own and while he’s won more of those battles than he’s lost he has been KO’d both in the Octagon and on the Contender Series.
This will be a fun one to watch and there’s a good chance it won’t go the distance, but there’s no guarantee who will emerge with their hand raised. I’d lean more towards Duncan in terms of the striking game, but if he chooses to use it I believe Rodrigues is the more skilled grappler. The Brazilian isn’t completely against going to the mat – he did so successfully against Denis Tuiuliulin last year for example, and so I’ll say he does pursue that approach here and is rewarded with a 2nd round submission win.
Pick: Gregory Rodrigues wins by submission in Rd2.
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Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
Arnold Allen is in the unusual position of having to bounce back from two losses in a row after having won 10 fights in a row before that. This time out he’ll be fighting Giga Chikadze, who was on a seven-fight winning streak not so long ago, but has picked up a loss and a win since then.
The 30-year-old is generally a disciplined striker who has sound technical boxing and fight IQ, maintaining range well and cutting angles nicely when he attacks. He did also show in his fight with Calvin Kattar in 2022 that he can actually be effective adopting a more aggressive approach, but so far that’s proven to be a one-off. Meanwhile, Allen is also well conditioned and is actually a very respectable wrestler, showing good control and he can work for the occasional submission finish too.
Chikadze has a lengthy run as a Glory kickboxer before turning his attention to MMA. The 35-year-old’s accomplished striking ability is clear to see as he works very well from range and has an agile and versatile kicking game. His low kicks could be a problem for Allen, but he also has big power in his body kicks and can stop fights upstairs too. Meanwhile, Chikadze’s wrestling defense isn’t all that bad for a converted kickboxer, but it’s still an area of concern and he’s not really a threat on the mat.
Allen can strike with Chikadze here if required, but I think he’d be wise to use his underrated wrestling to give himself a much easier night, potentially leading to a submission finish, though I think he’ll happily settle for just getting back in the win column via a decision victory.
Pick: Arnold Allen wins by decision.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil
Mick Parkin vs. Łukasz Brzeski
Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons
Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie
Marcin Prachnio vs. Modestas Bukauskas
