UFC On ESPN 62 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
Jared Cannonier suffered a setback a couple of months ago when he was TKO’d by Nassourdine Imavov, but he’s quickly getting back on the saddle to take on the undefeated Caio Borralho, who is on a five-fight winning streak since joining the UFC.
Cannonier was actually doing reasonably well against Imavov in the early rounds of their fight, which is no mean feat given that he’s now 40-years-old and was coming off an MCL tear that had kept him out for almost a year, but in the end he succumbed to a 4th round TKO loss. The fight showed that despite his prior injury he’s recovered well enough to still throw the heavy leg kicks that have been a menace to his opponents over the years alongside good punches. He’s physically strong and his wrestling is better offensively than defensively, but doesn’t go for takedowns too often and lacks a real submission threat, though he does carry his power into his ground-and-pound attacks.
The 31-year-old Borralho is an athletic fighter with a good overall set of skills. He’s a strong wrestler and grapples well, though he tends to be more of a position-over-submission type of fighter, being comfortable just grinding his way to victory from dominant positions. Meanwhile, in the striking department he’s light on his feet and prefers to pick his moments to close the distance with fast, accurate strikes, though like his ground game he’s not proven to be the biggest finisher. Meanwhile he’s generally well conditioned, but this will be his first test over five rounds.
There’s a risk that this fight could become a cautious trade-off on the feet as they try to outpoint each other in a fairly low-output series of engagements. Whether that’s the case or not though I do think Cannonier’s more compact, hard-hitting strikes would get the better of it, but I doubt that will be Borralho’s gameplan. Instead I’d expect him to be looking to get the fight to the mat, and I think over the course of three rounds he’ll have some success doing that, and will enjoy spells of control to help him grind out a decision win.
Pick: Caio Borralho wins by decision.
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Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci
Angela Hill has picked up two wins in the past year and now fights Tabatha Ricci, earned a split-decision win over Tecia [Pennington] Torres earlier in the year.
Hill is better than her overall 12-13 record in the UFC would suggest, and at 39-years-old she’s demonstrated that by going 4-1 in her last 5 fights, and even picked up her first ever submission win last time out. Primarily Hill is a volume striker though who makes up for her lack of movement with solid fundamentals, good in-and-out movement and keeping a good pace over three rounds. There are other aspects of her game that continue to improve as she gets older though as she’s able to work in the clinch and has shown better wrestling and grappling recently.
At 29-years-old Ricci is a decade younger than Hill and will be giving up 2″ in height and 3″ in reach to the veteran here. Ricci has been able to improve her striking ability over time and nowadays has capable boxing and hits with more power than Hill, albeit without getting much in the way of finishes. Ricci is strong for her size and with a judo background she’s good in the clinch and can land takedowns. On the mat she can opt for control or use her well-versed jiu-jitsu, which has earned her a handful of submission wins, though only one in the UFC.
It’s tempting to pick Hill here as she’s become a little more well-rounded late in her career, but I do think Ricci still has the advantage on the mat and in what could be a very close fight otherwise, I think getting a few takedowns and grappling opportunities could swing the fight in her favor to win by decision.
Pick: Tabatha Ricci wins by decision.
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Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos
The featherweight final of TUF Season 32 finds Kaan Ofli taking on Mairon Santos.
The 31-year-old Ofli is an Australian fighter with an 11-2-1 career who has since gone on to earn two victories on TUF to make it to the final, with a unanimous decision victory being followed by a first round finish via submission. Ofli has a pressure-based style and has enough striking capability to stay active while trying to seek out opportunities for takedowns. On the mat he’s a solid grappler who has five submissions on his record and also secured a guillotine choke finish when he was takedown down in the 1st round of his TUF semi-final.
Santos is only 24, but has a lot of experience under his belt with a 13-1 career record so far, including a couple of fights under the LFA banner, and emerged with two decision wins on TUF to get to the final. He’s a striker who has notched up 7 TKO finishes from 13 victories so far, working effectively from range with good speed and timing to go with his power, but he doesn’t have the deepest game beyond his stand-up.
As the more well-rounded of the two Ofli has a real chance here, but I think Santos’ striking prowess will be the difference-maker, producing the bigger moments to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Mairon Santos wins by decision.
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Robert Valentin vs. Ryan Loder
The 2nd TUF 32 final is contested at middleweight and sees the 29-year-old Robert Valentin going up against the 33-year-old Ryan Loder.
Valentin entered the show with a 10-3 record and has performed well with 1st round TKO and submission finishes. Valentin is an aggressive fighter on the feet who can be unpredictable with his offense and mixes in spinning attacks. Despite that he’s actually found more success finishing fights via equally aggressive submission hunting, accounting for 6 of his career wins, with a further 3 coming via strikes.
Loder’s style is very much rooted in his wrestling background and so he’ll tend to use his striking to close the distance and then use his wrestling to bring his opponent down and keep him there. It’s a control-based style, but he does have some capable ground-and-pound too.
with Valentin’s striking being a bit wild I think Loder will find opportunities for his takedown entries here, and I’d expect him to have a risk-adverse style on top as he grinds his way to a fairly dull decision win.
Pick: Ryan Loder wins by decision.
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Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales
After going back-and-forth between wins and losses in recent years Neil Magny now fights the undefeated Michael Morales, who has won all four of his UFC fights so far, extending his career record to a perfect 16-0.
The 37-year-old has come up short in the past couple of years when going up against leading divisional talents, but he’s still proving to be an effective gatekeeper, having ended the winning streaks of rising hopefuls like Daniel Rodriguez, Phillip Rowe and Mike Mallot during that period. A tall, rangey welterweight, Magny doesn’t really excel in any particular area, but is a solid all-rounder who can use that to take advantage of his opponent’s weaknesses. On the feet he uses his height and reach to keep opponents at bay with long-range kicks and punches, but he doesn’t have the power to keep more aggressive fighters from crashing the distance. He is good in the clinch though, can wrestle too and maintains a good work-rate from start to finish. He can be brought down though and has been vulnerable to submissions at times.
The 25-year-old Morales is the latest up-and-coming talent to face the Magny test. He is 3″ smaller than the veteran, but is only giving up an inch in reach. He’s a much more dangerous striker than Magny and as such will have a significant speed and power advantage when he unleashes his punches and kicks. He backs that up with good wrestling ability and he’s still at an age where he can make significant improvements from one fight to the next.
I do think there are signs that Magny is starting to slow down after a very active career in the UFC, but he still does well against a certain level of opposition. However, I think Morales is a cut above some of the others he’s got the better of lately, an the fact that Morales physical strength and wrestling will make it difficult for Magny to put together a plan B or C, I think Morales will be able to get the better of him on the feet and emerge with a TKO win in the 2nd round.
Pick: Michael Morales wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Coming off a 1st round KO win earlier in the year, Edmen Shahbazyan now returns to fight Gerald Meerschaert, who fought on the same event and claimed a win via submission.
It’s quite surprising that Shahbazyan is still only 26-years-old as it feels like he’s been in the UFC for much longer. He had a strong start to his UFC career with four straight wins in which he generally made short work of his opponents thanks to his very aggressive and powerfully despatched offense, with his boxing being his best weapon. Since then he’s found the going tougher though, with cardio becoming a major weakness for him, meaning that if he couldn’t finish an opponent early then he became easy prey for his opponents later in the fight. That led to four losses in his next five fights, and concerningly three of those were by TKO. He’s since switched camps and has tried to clean up his act a bit, giving hope that he can still live up to his early potential, but doubts remain as to whether he’s truly evolving enough to find more consistency in the next stage of his career.
Meerschaert is 10-years-older than Shahbazyan and has amassed more than 50 fights over the course of his career. There’s no doubt his gameplan here will be too drag him into deep waters as he’s the kind of fighter who tends to thrive in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, using his cardio and crafty submission game to claim victory. And that’s an approach that has worked well for him over the years as he has no less than 28 submission finishes from 36 career wins. Meerschaert can be more vulnerable on the feet early in his fights though as while he operates at range and throws some decent kicks his relative lack of speed and power, together with a questionable chin has led to him being stopped in the first round via strikes before. He does try to counter-act that however by timing clinch-opportunities or takedowns when his opponents get too close.
It feels like each fighters strengths and weaknesses offer up opportunities for both to capitalize on. It gives Meerschaert as strong chance of winning if he makes it past the first round-and-a-half, but I’m not so sure he makes it that far as Shahbazyan’s intense pressure and striking power early on is likely to make life very difficult for him, and I think that results in a 1st round TKO finish.
Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims
Danny Silva vs. Dennis Buzukja
Zachary Reese vs. José Daniel Medina
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. James Llontop
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Josiane Nunes
Wang Cong vs. Victoria Leonardo
