UFC 314 takes place tomorrow night in Miami, Florida and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
After 14 months out recovering following back-to-back KO defeats, former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski now returns looking to reclaim the now vacant title against Diego Lopes, who comes in off a five-fight unbeaten run in the Octagon.
On Saturday night we will go a long way to discovering whether the 36-year-old Volkanovski really is now damaged goods and past is best, or whether his two knockout losses were just a case of having gone up against two of the other best fighters in the sport right now at the peak of their powers in Islam Makachev and Ilia Topuria. Over the years Volkanovski has proven many times that he can get the better of other leading fighters in the division, despite not being the biggest, flashiest or hardest hitting 145lb’ers around. Volkanovski is however technically sound and has very good fight IQ, managing distance effectively while doing a great job of setting-ups and timing his strikes, all while staying compact defensively and being able to push a hard pace from start to finish. Volkanovski also has good wrestling and very solid takedown defense, while he can also take care of himself well in grappling exchanges too. Naturally his durability has now become a concern though and he’s getting to the age where any erosion in his speed, timing and reactions could have a real impact on his ability to be competitive at the highest level in the lighter weight classes.
The 30-year-old Lopes has proven to be an unflappable fighter who consistently brings his A-game in every fight. Even in his debut decision defeat a couple of years ago Lopes still emerged with plaudits due to having given the undefeated Movsar Evloev a tougher than anticipated fight despite coming on very short notice. Lopes has continued to be put into challenging fights since, and he’s risen to the occasion each time, beating the likes of Brian Ortega, Sodiq Yussuf and Dan Ige along the way. Lopes has a 5″ height advantage over Volkanovski, but only 1″ extra in reach. He is a fast-starting pressure fighter who will attack in volume with respectable accuracy and power on the feet, and also keeps an aggressive tempo on the mat too with a knack for chaining together submission attempts. That’s led to a strong finishing rate, with 22 of his 26 career victories being inside the distance, with 12 coming by way of submission. Lopes’ approach does expend a lot of energy and he did show signs of fatigue late in in his fight with Evloev (understandable given the short notice), and this will be his first five-rounder in the UFC, though he has fought the distance a couple of times on the regional scene.
This is a really intriguing fight that in the end does seem to hinge a lot on whether Volkanovski’s chin is intact and he can still replicate the kind of performance we’ve seen from him many times in the past. If he can then he is the technically superior and more crafty striker here and has strong enough takedown defense to snuff out Lopes’ grappling threat. And if he’s not at his best then Lopes’ forward pressure and intensity could certainly put him in danger. When all’s said and done I’m willing to give ‘old man Volk’ the benefit of the doubt here and will say that he is able to outland and outsmart Lopes in the striking exchanges and have the better cardio in the later rounds on his way to a decision victory.
Pick: Alexander Volkanovski wins by decision.
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
Michael Chandler comes in off a unanimous decision loss to Charles Oliveira late last year to fight Paddy Pimblett, who has gone 6-0 in the Octagon so far.
Chandler is trying to make up for lost time after spending two years on the sidelines waiting on a money-spinning fight with Conor McGregor that never materialized. Being in the media spotlight during that time did bolster his star power though, but the reality is that he’s now 38-years-old and has lost four of his six UFC fights so far, so the former Bellator champ has work to do. Chandler clearly came off second best against former champ Oliveira in November, but given his age and long lay-off the fact that he managed to go five rounds with a deadly finisher like him and actually had his best moments late on in the fight showed that there’s still plenty of fight left in him. Chandler is a heavy-handed striker who always commits 100% to his power punches and can be explosive as he closes the distance in search of a finish. while he’s smart enough to know better, he does have a habit of wanting to brawl though, and at times that’s left him having to rely on having strong powers of recovery to keep him in the fight if he doesn’t get the better of the heated exchanges. Chandler is also equipped with strong wrestling and hard ground-and-pound, while he can be a submission threat at times and generally has good defense on the mat too.
On paper the 30-year-old Pimblett’s UFC run looks impressive with six wins, but that doesn’t tell the full story as he’s not faced a particularly strong line-up of opposition and yet has had his struggles at times. Even in his first two Octagon victories that he won inside of a single round against mediocre opposition he still managed to get rocked due to his poor defense leaving him far too hittable, though he did do well to fight on through that adversity. And he was perhaps lucky to emerge victorious after an indifferent display against Jared Gordon at the end of 2022, while his tendency to balloon up in weight in-between fights has also led to doubts about how far he can go in his career. That being said, there have been signs that he’s starting to become more dialled in, particularly in his last fight against Bobby Green where he appeared to show genuine improvement in his striking technique to compliment his natural power and solid chin, before going on to win by submission. And it’s still the grappling realm where Pimblett tends to be at his best though with a crafty submission game that accounts for 10 of his 16 career finishes. And Pimblett also appears to be in good shape physically heading into this one, which is a must given that it’s a five-rounder.
There’s certainly opportunities for both fighters to win here. Pimblett has plenty of confidence and momentum ahead of the fight and given that his opponent has a lot of miles on the clock he might feel he can outlast him when punches start flying, or catch him in a submission on the mat. That being said though, given that Pimblett has been hurt against lesser opponents, Chandler’s big power and aggressive finishing instincts could well mean that he’ll not be given a chance to fight out of a bad spot. Chandler’s wrestling could also prevent Pimblett from getting the fight to the mat too, so in what I expect to be a back-and-forth scrap I’ll take ‘Iron’ Mike to punish ‘The Baddy’ for his defensive lapses to win by TKO in the third round.
Pick: Michael Chandler wins by decision.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva
After knocking out Kron Gracie late last year Bryce Mitchell now squares up to the in-form Jean Silva, who has won all four his UFC fights so far inside the distance.
The 30-year-old Mitchell has always been a bit of an out-there character who first hit the headlines early in his UFC career when he accidentally drilled through his own scrotum while woodworking and would go on to become a notorious purveyor of conspiracy theories, including believing that the world is flat, before landing himself in hot water earlier this year when he declared on his podcast that Hitler was actually a good guy he’d have liked to go fishing with. That could well have spelled the end of his UFC career, but instead Dana White publicly declared him he to be one of the dumbest human beings on earth and booked him to fight one of the 145lb division’s most exciting rising stars. His out-of-the-cage antics may have overshadowed his career, but Mitchell does remain a good fighter who is particularly good on the mat with a skilled grappling game that sees him perform well in scrambles and possess a submission threat that even led to a rare win via ‘Twister’ early in his UFC run. Mitchell has good cardio and brings his natural intensity to his striking too, but while he does have power he is not as effective on the feet as on the mat and suffered a bad KO loss to Josh Emmett just a couple of fights ago.
The 28-year-old Silva is a very talented striker who has had a knack for finishing opponents throughout his career and has continued that in the UFC, winning all of his fights so far be T(KO). There’s a real air of confidence about Silva’s work, and that’s not just due to having finishing power in his versatile and technical strike ability, but also due to his speed, reactions and ability to read his opponents intentions. That not only enables him to get into range and land with real accuracy when he sees openings, but also to do a good job of avoiding the strikes coming in his direction. That also means he’s quick to shut down takedown attempts too, and he punishes opponents for doing so by greeting them with elbows and uppercuts at close quarters. Silva does have a tendency to keep his hands low and rely on head movement at times, which can be risky, while his habit of wanting to interact with his opponents with high-fives in the heat of the battle can be an unnecessary distraction.
Silva is an impressive talent and I think he’ll be too fast, skilful and versatile for Mitchell to deal with on the feet. Perhaps Mitchell can battle his way to the mat to make things interesting, but I’ll take Silva to keep it standing and pick him apart, leading to a second round TKO victory.
Pick: Jean Silva wins by TKO in Rd2.
Yair Rodríguez vs. Patrício Pitbull
Yair Rodriguez’s short reign as interim-145lb champ ended with back-to-back defeats and now he goes up against the debuting Patricio Pitbull, a former two-division champion in the Bellator promotion.
The 32-year-old Rodriguez is an exceptionally dynamic, creative striker who successfully manages to blend very good fundamentals with more advanced, eye-catching techniques that make full use of his fists, feet, knees and elbows. Most memorably Rodriguez once KO’d ‘The Korean Zombie’ with an upward elbow in literally the final second of a five-round war, which serves as an example of how the Mexican ace is able to turn low-percentage moves into accurate and effective offensive opportunities, making him dangerous and unpredictable. In this fight Rodriguez’s striking will benefit from also being at a 6″ height and reach advantage, which he’ll put to full use. Rodriguez can be caught at times though due to the nature of his offense and tendency to rely on head movement and reactions to avoid strikes leaving him vulnerable at times, and he has been finished three times by strikes over the years. Rodriguez has worked to improve upon his ground game over time and that means he can be a threat via submissions, but his only ever submission defeat came in his last fight, albeit against a BJJ specialist in Brian Ortega.
Pitbull has been a pillar-stone of the Bellator promotion for 14 years, spending the vast majority of his campaign at 145lbs, but also having a brief foray into the lightweight ranks too, for a total of four separate title reigns, as well as having the most wins (24) and finishes (15) in the company’s history. As such he’s a fighter fans had hoped to one day see in the Octagon and it’s just a shame it’s taken until he’s 37-years-old to finally arrive. Pitbull is a short, sturdy fighter with very good striking fundamentals, heavy punches, hard low kicks and good counter-striking ability. He’s also very tough and is courageous when he finds himself in trouble, but he did suffer his first KO loss in the 1st round a couple of fights ago, though that could be partially explained by it being a very short notice fight up at 155lbs. Pitbull is a well-rounded fighter who blends his striking and wrestling well and is a real threat via submission, accounting for 12 of his 24 career finishes, including a good number of wins via his favored guillotine choke, while his ground-and-pound is effective too.
Pitbull is coming off a TKO win in his last Bellator 145lb title defense, but there’s no doubt that over 40 fights into his career he’s arriving in the UFC at a time when his best years are behind him. He’s still talented and able to deliver entertaining fights though, but I think this is a challenging match-up for him to perform at his best as Rodriguez will have both a size and speed advantage, and is more diverse and creative with his striking. Pitbull is more well-rounded and could threaten him on the mat, but I feel Rodriguez will be able to keep this one standing for the most part and find a TKO finish in the final round.
Pick: Yair Rodriguez wins by TKO in Rd3.
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes
Nikita Krylov has won his last three fights in a row and will attempt to keep that winning streak going against Dominick Reyes, who not so long ago was winless in four Octagon appearances, but steadied the ship last year with back-to-back victories.
While the 33-year-old Krylov is technically on a good run of the form, the caveat is that he’s actually been sidelined for over two years since his last win due to a bad shoulder injury that took a long time to heal after surgery. Krylov is an action-orientated fighter who is constantly looking to find a finish wherever the fight goes. On the feet he has a high-volume approach with versatile offense that includes a very capable kicking game. He can be quite reckless at times though and as such has had to lean on his sturdy chin to get him out of danger at times. Krylov’s aggression is mirrored on the mat, where he will greedily pursue submissions, but as a result can occasionally get caught up in them too, having been finished six times by subs. That being said, in total Krylov has finished 28 of his 30 career wins inside the distance, with 12 coming via strikes and 16 via submission.
The 35-year-old Reyes is best known for having given Jon Jones one of the toughest fights of his career while he was still 205lb champion back in 2020, though he ultimately lost by a controversial unanimous decision verdict. Reyes had high hopes of landing an immediate rematch, but it never materialized and Reyes form dipped drastically afterwards, suffering four defeats in a row, with the latter three troublingly all coming via strikes. Up until that point Reyes had been an impressively athletic striker who made the most of his fast hands, kicks and footwork to catch-out his opponents, while also having the power to find quick finishes over the likes of Jared Cannonier and Chris Weidman. During his dip in form he started to lose confidence though and as well as developing a durability issue he also seemed less sharp with his offense than before. However, Reyes has managed to dig himself out of that hole, for the time being at least, with a couple of nice wins that put his offensive prowess back on display with finishes over Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith.
Is the old Reyes really back though? It’s hard to say for sure since his last two opponents were also struggling at the time, particularly Smith. It’s certainly given him a much-needed confidence boost, but it’s easy to still have doubts about the quality of his chin. That being said, we don’t know how Krylov will perform either given his long lay-off and injury struggle. Even so, if Krylov adopts his usual aggressive approach then it won’t be long before he puts Reyes under threat, and given that he’s also more dangerous on the mat too I do favor him to win and will say he gets it done via TKO in the 2nd round.
Pick: Nikita Krylov wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson
Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba
Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper
Sedriques Dumas vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk
Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa
Su Mudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo
Tresean Gore vs. Marco Tulio
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan
