UFC 318 takes place this coming Saturday night in New Orleans, Louisiana and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier
Max Holloway famously KO’d Justin Gaethje in the final second to win the symbolic ‘BMF’ title last year, but was then KO’d himself for the first time in his career by Ilia Topuria in a featherweight title fight last October. Meanwhile, Dustin Poirier already holds two wins over Holloway, but now heads into a trilogy fight with him as he looks to win the ‘BMF’ title in what’s also set to be his retirement fight.
The 33-year-old Holloway was making his UFC debut in the featherweight division all the back in 2012 when he first came up against Poirier and suffered a submission loss. By the time they met again in 2019, Holloway had come a long way, being the long-running heavyweight champ on a 13-fight winning streak. However, the rematch was his first taste of competing at 155lbs, and it didn’t go his way, with Poirier appearing to wield a power advantage that led to him being visibly stung several times during the fight on his way to a unanimous decision defeat. That could have spelled an end to Holloway’s ambitions at lightweight, but his knockout win over Gaethje last year in the division suggested otherwise, with the star showcasing a bit more power, better defense and improved kicks to round out his already very impressive striking arsenal. He also showed that he can still retain his high-volume intensity up a division that has always been a hallmark of his decorated career at 145lbs, delivering some of the best boxing combination work in the game with speed and accuracy. Being KO’d last time out is certainly a concern here, but generally speaking ‘Blessed’ has had one of the best chins in the sport. Meanwhile, Holloway also has good takedown defense, but while he can also be somewhat competitive on the mat, he’s less proven and skilled on the mat than Poirier.
Coming off a submission loss against Islam Makhachev in his latest unsuccessful attempt to win the lightweight strap last year, the 36-year-old Poirier had decided that he’ll hang up his gloves for good after this trilogy fight with Holloway. It seems like a smart choice as while Poirier’s submission win over Michael Chandler and KO finish of Benoit Saint Denis in the past few years showed he’s still a major threat, there have also been increasing signs during that period, including a hed kick KO loss to Justin Gaethje, that he’s no longer operating at his best, having a bit less speed, activity, stamina and durability than before. Poirier remains a very good boxer though with finishing power and the fighting intensity of a true warrior together with the cool-headed tactical awareness of a seasoned veteran. While Poirier can be outwrestled at times and has been submitted, he is a well-rounded fighter who is comfortably working for submissions or scrambling back to his feet when required.
This should be a great fight between two of the most consistently exciting, talented and entertaining fighters of their generation. Poirier’s power was a difference-maker last time out, and I do still expect him to have the advantage there on Saturday night. From a technical standpoint I do believe Holloway is the better striking technician though. And significantly, compared to their previous fights I think age could be a more important factor this time around as Poirier is a few years older, and so I think Holloway’s speed, tempo and cardio could have more of an impact as the fight goes on. Holloway also now has the experience of their first 155lb clash and subsequent win over Gaethje to draw on, and as such I’m leaning towards him here to emerge with a hard-fought decision victory.
Pick: Max Holloway wins by decision.
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
Paulo Costa comes off two losses in a row in 2024 to fight Roman Kopylov, who has notched up back-to-back victories.
In his prime Costa was a formidable force in the middleweight division, arriving in the UFC as an undefeated fighter back in 2017 and then going on a five-fight rampage through the ranks that included TKO’ing four opponents in a row. With his muscular physique, striking technique, big power and surprisingly good cardio, it looked like the UFC had a real star on their hands. However, Costa’s hype train was abruptly derailed with a very underwhelming TKO loss in a title challenge against Israel Adesanya in 2020, and that was just the start of a slide that’s now seen him win just once in his last five fights. Mentality seems to have a lot to do with it as Costa’s killer instinct appears to have vanished, and in it’s place he’s become a fighter who appears to just be going through the motions at times, further reflected in the fact that he now fights fairly infrequently. That’s unfortunate as he does still have good boxing technique, punishing low kicks and very respectable cardio, but he seems to lark the spark and aggression to fully harness that and it’s now been seven years since he last stopped an opponent inside the distance.
The 33-year-old Koplyov is also a striker and he’s been putting his potent kickboxing to good use in his career so far with all but two of his 14 career victories to date having come via strikes. Both his fast punches and kicks are potential fight-enders, and he’s shown an impressive ability to stop opponents in their tracks with body work, although last time out he stopped Chris Curtis with a head kick. Kopylov has also shown good durability, having never been finished by strikes, but he has been submitted a couple of times during his 6-3 UFC run, so he’ll do what he can to ensure the fight stays on the feet.
While the physical tools and ability are there, Costa is just completely unreliable these days, so Kopylov’s consistency together with his speed and assured striking arsenal makes him feel like the safer pick here, and so I’ll take him to win by decision.
Pick: Roman Kopylov wins by decision.
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Kevin Holland continues to be extremely active in the Octagon, having already put together a 2-1 record so far this year, and now he’ll take on Daniel Rodriguez, who has won his last two fights.
By the time he steps into the Octagon it’ll have been six weeks since Holland’s 2nd round brabo choke submission finish over Vicente Luque. It was a good performance for the 32-year-old, and gave him a chance to show that despite still being on the weak side defensively in terms of his wrestling and grappling, he can actually pose a threat offensively with his submissions, including now having three brabo choke finishes to his name. Typically though Holland is more focused on his striking, and at welterweight he has an advantageous tall, lengthy frame for that, which will give him 3″ in height and 7″ in reach over Rodriguez. Holland fights well from range with long, straight punches and a good variety of kicks, while his long knees and elbows also come into play as weapons at closer range. Holland does have some bad habits, including losing focus, making poor decisions and does still have difficulties with being held down and controlled on the mat too. As such he’s rarely been able to break out of a pattern of winning a couple of fights followed by losing a couple, and his dedication to fighting so frequently limits his ability to spend time focusing on technical improvements.
Rodriguez was very consistent when he first joined the UFC, putting together an initial 7-1 record, but he then hit a rough patch a couple of years ago, appearing to be off his game during a three-fight losing slump. He’s now back in the win column courtesy over wins against fellow veterans in the twilight years of their careers, but his performances haven’t been convincing enough to say for sure that the 38-year-old is back to where he was before. When he’s firing on all cylinders D-Rod is a fighter with solid boxing fundamentals who makes good use of the jab and works well to both the head and body. He’s a volume-striker more than a power puncher and is able to keep applying pressure to gradually wear down his opponents as the rounds go on. Rodriguez can also wrestle and is capable on the mat, but it’s not his first option.
Even with his recent wins I can’t shake the sense that Rodriguez is starting to fade a bit, and with Holland having a distinct size and power advantage here I think he has a good chance to emerge with a decision victory.
Pick: Kevin Holland wins by decision.
Dan Ige vs. Patrício Pitbull
Dan Ige got back to winning ways last time out with a TKO victory after having suffered back-to-back defeats before that. Now he’ll take on ex two-division Bellator champ Patricio Pitbull, who was defeated on the scorecards by Yair Rodriguez in his UFC debut earlier in the year.
The 33-year-old Ige can be a problem for many fighters in the division when he’s allowed to fight how he wants to as he’s a challenging boxer to deal with at close quarters, as he has good combination work in the pocket and is also very durable, having never been stopped in his career. His pressure and solid power has led to four of his last five wins coming via strikes, and he can mix things up too with the occasional takedown. That being said, the compact Ige isn’t as effective at range and his skill-set hasn’t been enough to overcome a variety of other top contenders at featherweight, so he’s actually only gone 5-7 since 2020.
Pitbull was a star for the Bellator promotion for many years and won many accolades along the way, becoming a two-division champion who holds the record for most wins (24) and most title fights (18) in the company’s history. Unfortunately, Pitbull is only finally making the jump over to the UFC late in his career when he’s already 38-years-old and with 44 fights under his belt. Even in his latter Bellator fights the cracks were beginning to show, including picking up back-to-back defeats for the first time in his career a couple of years ago, and he certainly didn’t look at his best in a disappointing decision loss to Rodriguez in his UFC debut. A short, stocky fighter, in his prime Pitbull was a very well-rounded fighter who combined his hard-hitting punches and kicks with a strong wrestling game, mean ground-and-pound and a tried-and-tested grappling game. That’s led to 24 of his 36 career wins coming inside the distance, split evenly between strikes and submissions. Pitbull’s style has adapted as he’s moved into the later years of his career though and he’s now more cautious and focused on counter-striking, while he’s not as quick or durable as he was in the past.
At his best Pitbull was undoubtedly a better fighter on the feet and on the mat compared to Ige, but after all the fights he’s been in over the years I’m not sure if he’s going to be able to shift through the gears like he used to on Saturday night. I’d expect Ige to bring the fight to him, and while that may give Pitbull some opporunities to seek out counters, Ige is uncommonly durable and I feel his work rate from start to finish will enable him to edge out a decision victory.
Pick: Dan Ige wins by decision.
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber
Michael Johnson managed to pick up two wins in 2024 and now fights Daniel Zellhuber, who is coming off a split-decision loss, but had won three-in-a-row prior to that.
The 39-year-old Johnson’s improved form last year was unexpected given that he had lost six out of eight fights beforehand. He has a lot of miles on the clock at this point after a 15-15 run in the UFC, but he’s still in relatively good shape for his age and continues to be a quick boxer with good movement who has the power to notch up the occasional knockout victory. As his record suggests, Johnson has struggled with consistency over the years, being prone to strategic blunders, while also having a weakness to being submitted that accounts for 9 of his career losses.
Zellhuber turned 26-years-old earlier this month and though he lost his last fight against Esteban Ribivocs it was by the narrowest of margins on the main card of the much hyped ‘Noche UFC’ event at the Sphere, and the blow will have been softened somewhat by winning ‘Fight Of The Night’ honors. Zellhuber is very big by lightweight standards and as such will have a 3″ height and 4″ reach advantage to work with on Saturday night. Zellhuber is a skilled boxer and mixes kicks in nicely too, but though he’s capable of using his reach to his advantage, he does have a tendency to be drawn into more close-quarters brawls and can be too hittable at times for his own good. He is durable though and is also able to add variety to his game with clinch work as well as being a problem on the mat too with his ground-and-pound and capable grappling.
I think the younger, bigger Zellhuber’s striking is good enough to find success against the veteran here, and I’ll take him to deliver a 2nd round finish.
Pick: Daniel Zellhuber wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
Ateba Abega Gautier vs. Robert Valentin
Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov
Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio
Ryan Spann vs. Łukasz Brzeski
Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey
Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari
