UFC Fight Night 285 takes place tomorrow night in Sacremento and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Anthony Hernandez looks to rebound from a TKO loss to Sean Strickland that ended an eight-fight unbeaten run when he fights Gregory Rodrigues, who comes in off a three‑fight winning streak.
The 32-year-old Hernandez has had a good deal of success in recent years beating opponents by outworking them at a pace they can’t match. That’s particularly true on the mat where his non-stop combination of wrestling and tireless high-tempo grappling has even worn down the likes of Brendan Allen, who is used to doing that to other people. Hernandez also has nine submission wins on his record, including against grappling ace Rodolfo Veira early in his UFC run and more recently thes likes of Roman Dolidze and Roman Kopylov. Against Sean Strickland last time out he couldn’t manage to secure takedowns to get the fight where he wanted it though. And with Hernandez’s high-volume striking typically being more of a means-to-and-end to set up his takedowns he came off second-best and was eventually TKO’d. The stoppage loss will have stung him as he’s usually proven to be durable with just one other loss to strikes in his career, but there is a slight concern developing that he may have a weakness to body shots.
The 34-year-old Rodriguez has a strong background in BJJ and has also wrestled competitively too, but during his MMA career he’s tended to push that aside in favor of focusing on his striking game. And to be fair ‘Robocop’ has proven to be a dangerous striker as he has good boxing technique and will stalk his opponents before unleashing punches with explolosive power, leading to 12 finishes via strikes. Rodrigues is hittable though and has been stopped four times via strikes, while his early energy expenditure can wear on his cardio and it still feels like he could make better strategic use of his full MMA skill-set by making more use of his ground game.
Hernandez can ill-afford to get caught up in another purely striking based match-up here as Rodrigues’s heavier-hitting offense could cause him a lot of problems. Rodrigues could be tricky to deal with on the mat too, but Hernandez’s cardio-sapping style seems well suited to help drain his gas-tank in a five-round fight, enabling him to take control over time and secure a decision victory.
Pick: Anthony Hernandez wins by decision.
Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino
Serghei Spivac returns after beating Ante Delija in February to face Vitor Petrino, who has gone 3‑0 since moving to heavyweight.
The 31-year-old Spivac has seven years of UFC experience under his belt, going 9‑6 in the process. Spivac has beaten some solid opponents over that time, but he does have a tendency to falter when up against top-tier opponents. Spivac’s at his best on the mat with respectable wrestling, a significant submission threat and damaging ground-and-pound. On the feet he’s far less convincing due to his limited athleticism, pedestrian technique, and a vulnerable chin that’s led to four TKO losses.
The 28-year-old Petrino started well in the UFC 205lb division with four wins in a row, but after a couple of losses he made the decision to move up to heavyweight in 2024. He’s got back to winning ways since then, although the reality is he’s been facing low‑tier opposition. Petrino has always been physically strong and doesn’t look out-of-place as a mid-sized heavyweight who seems to be benefitting from being a bit more athletic than some of his counter-parts. Petrino isn’t the most technical striker, but the skill-ceiling is lower in this division, so his explosive striking and ability to counter can be effective, and he is also able to mix in opportunistic takedowns and good ground-and-pound.
Spivac has a chance if he can work his grappling game, but Petrino is similarly sized and I can see him fending off his takedown approaches and turning this into a striking battle that suits his advantages in power and athleticism, leading to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Vitor Petrino wins by TKO in Rd2.
Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze
Both Reinier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze are moving to light‑heavyweight for this fight after each suffered back-to-back losses at middleweight.
De Ridder had a good run at 185lbs when he first joined the UFC, winning four fights in a row against good opponents, but he’s blamed his recent defeats on a tough weight-cut, prompting his move up to 205lbs. He’s no stranger to the weight-class though as he’s a former middleweight and light-heavyweight champion in the ONE FC promotion. The 35-year-old RDR has a strong ground-game with composed wrestling, stifling top control and high-level grappling that’s led him to 13 career submission wins. On the other hand, while he’s a willing striker, it’s not a natural fit for him as his kickboxing fundamentals are awkward, though his frequent use of knee strikes has troubled some opponents in the Octagon.
The 38-year-old Dolidze also has past experience up at light-heavyweight, but has spent the majority of his six-year run in the UFC at 185lbs. Dolidze is a physically strong, reliable and durable striker who sticks to the fundamentals with fairly predictable offense, but has good punching power and heavy low kicks. Dolidze can also wrestle and has respectable grappling too when required, though he did suffer his first submission loss to Anthony Hernandez last year. He’s still never been finished by strikes though.
As long as de Ridder doesn’t get sucked into a striking battle then I’d expect his superior grappling to be the difference-maker here, and hopefully there’ll be some signs of cardio improvement too up at 205lbs to help him secure a decision victory.
Pick: Reiner de Ridder wins by decision.
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones
MarQuel Mederos is unbeaten in the UFC so far with 3 wins and a draw, while Mason Jones is 3‑0 since returning to the promotion last year.
The 29-year-old holds an 11-1-1 carer record and is now getting his first taste of UFC main card action. Medoros is a reasonably technical striker who utilizes good footwork, stance switches and distance management to set up his punches and kicks, but does lack a little raw power. He found the going tougher last time out against Chris Padilla showed due to his constant forward pressure, though he did adapt with sharp elbows inside to score some damage and salvage a draw. Meanwhile his grappling remains limited and he’s yet to secure a submission win.
The 31-year-old Jones is an ex-two-division Cage Warriors champion who struggled with consistency in his first UFC stint a few years ago, but has made more of an impact so far in his second run. He fights aggressively with constant pressure, delivering solid boxing combinations with good power, while also being equipped with good knees too. His offensive focus means he can be hittable and absorbs more shots than he should, but he’s never been finished and is quietly well‑rounded, with functional wrestling and grappling available when needed.
There’s a real chance finds himself having to fight off the back foot again, which won’t suit him. And with Jones bringing more power than his last opponent and also having good durability I think he’ll battle his way to a decision win.
Pick: Mason Jones wins by decision.
Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves
Carli Judice brings a three‑fight winning streak into her fight against Jeisla Chaves, who looks to stay unbeaten after a split‑decision win in her UFC debut took her to 8-0.
The 27-year-old Judice was signed off the Contender Series after being earmarked for her potential despite losing on the night and only having four career fights in total. She then dropped her UFC debut, but has since got on track with two TKO wins and a unanimous decision victory. Given her relative lack of experience Judice is still developing from fight-to-fight, but her striking shows promise with natural power in her punches to the head and body, solid kicks, and even a knee‑to‑the‑body finish in the Octagon. Five of her six wins so far have come by strikes, while her takedown defense is gradually improving as she aims to keep the action upright.
The 29-year-old Chaves record looks good at her first glance, though it should be stressed that she was fighting complete unknowns out in Brazil before arriving on the Contender Series last year. Chaves is actually a former ring girl in her homeland, but she’s shown she’s up for a fight, has respectable athleticism and functional muay thai ability. However, though she racked up a few wins during her regional run, it’s noticeable that she’s already having to settle for narrow wins on the scorecards since having a slight step up in competition.
These two fighters are still very much works-in-progress but Judice has genuine potential and I think her impactful striking will take her to a 2nd round TKO victory.
Pick: Jeisla Chaves wins by TKO in Rd2.
Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman
Just over a week since earning a UFC contract with a 34 second TKO victory, Anthony Wint is already set to make his official promotional debut against another newcomer Terrance Chatman, who holds a 5-1 record.
The 30-year-old Wint had an all-too-brief stint in the NFL before following a new career path in MMA, and it’s gone well for him so far, including becoming Fury FC’s heavyweight title back in March and then that swift win on the Contender Series to go 7-0. He’s short for the division at 5’11”, but makes up for it with his athleticism as he’s quick, densely muscular and carries explosive knockout power, leading to five of his wins coming via strikes, while he’s also shown some versatility with a 41‑second submission on the regional scene.
Chatman also comes from the Fury FC promotion to make his debut on barely more than a week’s notice. The 29-year-old is 3″ taller than Wint and is significantly heavier, but has a less imposing physique and doesn’t have his athleticism. However, Chatman has capable boxing and respectable power, together with being a threat with leg kicks, having not only finished his last fight in the 1st round with them, but also doing the same to another opponent during his run as an amateur a few years ago.
Chatman tends to leave his chin exposed and I think the fast-starting Wint will punish him for that as he unleashes big power punches to secure a 1st round TKO finish.
Pick: Anthony Wint wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev
Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Márcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse
Gauge Young vs. Stanley Dorsainvil
Wesley Schultz vs. Jackson McVey
Shanelle Dyer vs. Elise Reed
