UFC Fight Night 290 takes place on Saturday night in Las Vegas and you can see our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
No.5 ranked middleweight Brendan Allen is on a three-fight winning streak ahead of his main event fight with the 10th placed Christian Leroy Duncan, who is on a five-fight unbeaten run.
Allen has been one of the division’s most reliable contenders in recent years, winning in 10 of his last 12 Octagon appearances. His wrestling and grappling have been the foundation of that success, with reliable takedowns, effective top control and a dangerous submission game that has produced 14 career finishes, including 11 rear-naked chokes. While not the fastest or most dynamic striker, Allen has solid boxing fundamentals, good kicking technique and the cardio to maintain a high pace. And the improvements in his stand-up and his willingness to utilize that was evident in his recent decision win over Edmen Shahbazyan.
The 31-year-old Duncan has become one of the UFC’s most exciting middleweights thanks to his creative and explosive striking that thrives on flashy techniques and spectacular finishes. Back-to-back KO victories last year over Eryk Anders and Marco Tulio via spinning back elbow and spinning backfist showed that he can use these kind of techniques effectly, and that’s actually been a running theme throughout a career that includes 10 wins by strikes. Duncan has also shown durability, having never having been finished, and demonstrated his ability to win over three rounds in his victory over Jared Cannonier. However, his aggressive style can leave defensive openings, and his struggles to prevent takedowns at times remains a potential weakness.
Duncan’s firepower makes him a big threat here, but I think Allen’s prowess in the wrestling and grappling departments will enable to nullify that and lead him to secure a 2nd round submission victory.
Pick: Brendan Allen wins by submission in Rd2.
Jai Herbert vs. Matheus Camilo
Jai Herbert comes in off a 1st round TKO win to fight Matheus Camilo, who has strung together back-to-back victories.
Herbert is an unexpected choice for co-main event status given that at 38-years-old he’s only managed a modest 4-5-1 run in the UFC and has typically been found on the prelims in recent times. The former Cage Warriors champion is a tall, rangy striker who will enjoy a 3-inch height and 7.5-inch reach advantage over Camilo. A muay thai practitioner, Herbert uses his length well, firing sharp straight punches from range along with damaging kicks to the body and legs. His size even posed problems for Ilia Topuria early in his UFC career, to the extent that he even dropped him with a head kick. However, Herbert’s willingness to engage in firefights has proven costly at times, and he’s suffered several stoppage losses throughout his career, including being KO’d by Topuria. Herbert can also mix in an occasional takedown,but he generally prefers to keep the fight standing.
The 25-year-old Camilo owns an 11-3 professional record and is starting to build some momentum in the UFC. He isn’t a high-volume striker, but he possesses solid boxing fundamentals, effective low kicks and can be effective on the counter, as evidenced by his TKO victory over Nazim Sadykhov last time out. Camilo also brings a respectable wrestling game that’ll see him regularly pursuing takedowns and working from top position. That said, his grappling is less convincing off his back, with all three of his career defeats coming by submission, while his cardio hasn’t always held out as well as it should in high-paced fights.
Herbert’s size and impactful striking from range presents a problem for Camilo, but I think that will lead him to focus more on getting the fight to the mat, with takedowns and submission attempts helping swing the fight in his favor to win by decision.
Pick: Matheus Camilo wins by decision.
Loopy Godínez vs. Ketlen Souza
Loopy Godinez returns after suffering a submission loss to Tatiana Suarez six months ago, while Ketlen Souza enters the bout looking to build on two victories already this year.
The 33-year-old Godinez has compiled a 9-6 record in the UFC to date. On the feet she’s a hard worker with capable boxing fundamentals and good defensive awareness, but she lacks finishing ability, with just one stoppage win by strikes on her record. Despite not being a big strawweight, Godinez makes up for it with physical strength and a judo-based clinch game that allows her to control opponents and create takedown opportunities. She’s competent on the mat, but against lacks a finishing threat via submissions and will have been disappointed to have picked up her first submission loss last time out.
Souza has gone 4-3 since joining the UFC and heads into this fight with growing momentum following back-to-back wins. A former Invicta FC flyweight champion, the 31-year-old soon dropped to strawweight after making it to the UFC and has made good use of her physicality in the division, applying pressure with her close quarters boxing, solid kicks and clinch work. Souza has genuine power, which was highlighted by her 94-second head-kick knockout victory last time out, though her other eight wins via strikes all came on the regional scene. Meanwhile, her takedown defence remains a notable weakness, and she’s had variable results when forced to grapple.
Souza carries the greater finishing threat here on the feet, but Godinez is more defensively sound, matches up well in the clinch and should find some success with takedowns to help grind out a win by decision.
Pick: Loopy Godinez wins by decision.
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
Andre Fili looks to snap his first ever two-fight losing slump when he goes up against Kai Kamaka III, who is 1-1 since returning to the promotion.
A veteran of the UFC’s featherweight division, the 36-year-old Fili has spent much of his 13-years in the Octagon alternating between wins and losses, including a significant amount being decided by split-decision. He’ll hold a notable 3-inch height and 5-inch reach advantage over Kamaka on Saturday night and can make good use of that with his straight punches and kicks from range. Fili has good counter-striking and reasonable power, but his defense can let him down at times, and so he’s now been finished five times via strikes. Fili can mix in takedowns to help win rounds, but while he can grapple when required he’s never won by submission in the UFC, but has been tapped out three times.
Kamaka originally went 1-2-1 during his first UFC run five years ago, before rebuilding his career with solid runs in Bellator, PFL and Tuff-N-Uff. That resurgence earned him a return to the UFC, where he picked up a split-decision victory before suffering a first-round TKO loss to Luke Riley. The 31-year-old is a pressure fighter with a good work ethic, high-volume boxing, solid wrestling and dependable cardio. He lacks significant finishing power, with the vast majority of his wins coming by decision, and he can also be quite hittable.
Fili will take some heart from the fact his TKO loss last time out did also lead to a ‘Fight Of The Night’ award, showing that the veteran is still a game opponent. Kamaka being less of a finishing threat will help him here and I think Fili can use his craftier counter-striking to win enough striking exchanges to secure a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Andre Fili wins by decision.
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Malcolm Wellmaker looks to get back on track after consecutive UFC losses when he takes on Otari Tanzilovi, who dropped a unanimous decision in his promotional debut earlier this year.
Wellmaker burst onto the UFC scene after a first-round knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series and quickly backed up the hype with two more first-round KO victories inside the Octagon. The 32-year-old is a dangerous boxer with fast hands, sharp head movement and proven knockout power. However, his recent setbacks have exposed some limitations in his overall game. Wellmaker has shown some signs of struggling to adapt when forced onto the back foot, and can fade under pressure as fights progress. Also, while he is capable offensively on the mat, his takedown defence remains a concern, and he was submitted last time out.
The 28-year-old Tanzilovi attempted to get into the UFC via the Contender Series a couple of years ago while still an unbeaten 9-0 prospect, but fell short in a split-decision loss. After rebounding with another regional victory, he earned a UFC opportunity, but lost again on the scorecards. Tanzilovi combines solid boxing with a varied kicking game and has produced several eye-catching finishes throughout his career. His aggressive style can leave openings defensively though, forcing him to rely on his toughness at times. He also mixes in takedown attempts to keep opponents guessing, though his wrestling success can be inconsistent.
Wellmaker’s two losses lately were against other highly regarded prospects and will have been a learning experience for him. I think he still has the greater up-side in this match-up, and will put his boxing to good use to deliver a 2nd round TKO finish here.
Pick: Malcolm Wellmaker wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim
Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan
Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris
Alice Pereira vs. Darya Zheleznyakova
Ernesta Kareckaitė vs. Melissa Gatto
