UFC 311 takes place tomorrow night in Inglewood, California and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Islam Makhachev managed to beat the debuting Arman Tsarukyan by unanimous decision when they first locked horns in 2019. Since then Makhachev has gone on to become lightweight champion, extended his winning streak to 14 fights and sits atop the current pound-for-pound rankings, while Tsarukyan has amassed nine wins from his last 10 Octagon appearances.
Despite his defeat in their first encounter, Tsarukyan marked himself out as one-to-watch that night as not only did he show no signs of ‘Octagon jitters’ in what was a very tough match-up for a newcomer, but he also made Makhachev work hard to assert his usual wrestling and grappling dominance, while also looking sharp on the feet too.
Several years later, the 28-year-old Tsarukyan now has a lot more experience under his belt, and has proven beyond any doubt that he’s a high-level operator with wins over the likes of former champ Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. He’s firmly in his prime-years now, has a very well-rounded skill-set, and his speed and athleticism could be key attributes against the reigning champion. He’s only gone five rounds once in his career though against Mateusz Gamrot, and that ended in a loss, which does add to the sense that his cardio could be a potential concern.
At 33-years-old Makhachev also still feels like he’s at the peak of his powers, and if anything there’s a sense that he’s the one who may have shown the most improvement since 2019. To be fair his wrestling, grappling and clinch-work have always been very strong, but it’s his striking that has clearly been elevated to an impressive level over time, becoming more calculated, composed and capable of landing fight-ending blows. And as such, during back-to-back wins over featherweight great Alexander Volkanovski, as well as besting the likes of Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier in the past two-and-a-half years, Makhachev has shown very little in the way of notable weaknesses.
There’s no doubt that Tsarukyan has earned this chance at vengeance, and I’d expect him to force Makhachev into another hard-fought battle. However, I do expect Makhachev’s wrestling advantage to still be there, and while Tsarkuyan will be tricky to deal with in scrambles, it’s hard to see him getting the upper-hand in the grappling department either. And though Tsarukyan may have the speed advantage on the feet, these days I feel Makhachev is the superior technician, and together with having a deeper gas tank and more five-round experience, I think he’ll gradually get more control over the fight and earn another decision win.
Pick: Islam Makachev wins by decision.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
After a long winning streak, Merab Dvalishvili seized the bantamweight title from Sean O’Malley last year and now heads into his first title defense against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, who has won six fights in a row since joining the UFC.
The 34-year-old Dvalishvili’s game-plan is no big secret and it’s not very intricate or adaptable, yet it continues to be a winning formula for him. Dvalishvili’s energetic approach sees him weaponize his cardio to push a gruelling pace, while relentlessly pursuing takedown attempts. The reality is that once he gets the fight on the mat he’s actually not all that effective at keeping his opponents there, or seeking out finishes via strikes or submission. However, when the action goes back to the feet he just goes right back to trying to take them down, over and over again. It’s a very draining style for his opponents to defend against and leaves little opportunity for them to implement their own offense. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili’s striking is mostly just functional and he can be quite hittable when he moves into range for his takedowns, but his excellent durability is a further thorn in the flesh of his adversaries.
Brother of Bellator lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov and cousin of UFC legend Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar has lived up to his family name well so far. As you would expect from someone with his lineage he’s an adept wrestler, and his grappling stands out too, with back-takes and submissions being his best avenue for finding a finish. What’s particularly notable about Nurmagomedov however is that he’s also a surprisingly fleet-of-foot, agile striker with a distinctive style, preferring to use a diverse selection of quick-fire kicks from range. As much as anything this seems to do a good job of keeping his opponents at bay, while enabling him to strike while not being hit in return. And he also does a good job of being able to suddenly switch to shooting for a takedown, adding a sense of unpredictability to his game.
It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. Dvalishvili’s style has proven effective against a long list of opponents and his forward pressure and durability could make it tricky for Nurmagomedov to maintain his striking range. That being said, Nurmagomedov does present a unique challenge here given how well-rounded he is, meaning that he can make it tricky for Dvalishvili to take him down in the first place, and also offer a submission threat when they are on the mat too. And he will have some success in the striking department too, and could potentially keep the champ at bay longer than most are able to. In the end it feels like Nurmagomedov has more weapons and more ways to win and so I’m leaning towards him getting the decision nod here, but he’ll have to fight very hard for it.
Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov wins by decision.
Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
Third on the main card is a battle of former 205lb champions, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, who are both coming off unsuccessful title fights against the current king of the division, Alex Pereira.
The 32-year-old Prochazka, is renowned for his deadly striking power and battling mentality, with his unorthodox technique and relentless aggression having earned him 26 knockouts from 30 career victories in total. And it’s worth noting that out of those four other wins, three came by submission, underlining his desire to finish fights at all costs. There are flaws in that kind of offensively-minded approach however, particularly since he often abandons his defense altogether in favor of all-out attack, which clearly is a very risky endeavour. It helps that he’s got good durability and is mentally strong, and together with his striking potency that means he often does win these wild fire-fights. That being said, it does leave him wide-open to being hit at times, and he’s not immune to being finished, as Pereira proved by TKO’ing him twice, and a couple of others have succeeded in doing so as well over the years.
The 33-year-old Hill is also an explosive striker, though he’s not as much of a wild-man in his approach as Prochazka is. Ideally he likes to strike from range with his long-limbed punches and kicks, although he won’t have a reach advantage to work with on this occasion. Hill is a high-volume, versatile striker, has good speed, solid accuracy and has shown his power with finishes in four of his last five UFC wins. Hill’s better than Prochazka defensively, but does still leave holes that can be exploited at times. And it’ll be interesting to see if having been KO’d for the first time in his career last time out will affect his approach on Saturday night. Hill’s unlikely to take the fight to the mat here though, but he’s not a fish-out-of-water if the action does go there.
Both fighters here have the power to finish the other and will be intent on doing so, which should make for an exciting fight that could go either way. Prochazka has the edge in heart and intensity here, but given his reckless style it often feels that even in fights he wins he comes dangerously close to being finished himself. And with Hill being a bit more measured in his approach from range I can see him finding the opportunities to land a big punch that paves the way for a second round TKO finish.
Pick: Jamahal Hill wins by TKO In Rd2.
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Beneil Dariush suffering two tough losses via strikes in 2023 and subsequently opted to take a full year out. Now he returns to face Renato Moicano, who is on a four-fight winning streak.
Dariush’s year-out seemed like a wise choice as in addition to his 1st round TKO and KO defeats in 2023 the word from his camp was that he’d also suffered similar issues in training that same year. It’s actually not the first time that chin-issues has been a problem for him as back in 2017-2018 he had two KO losses that led to question-marks about his durability. To his credit though, on that occasion he actually bounced back brilliantly, going on an eight-fight winning streak that put him on the verge of title contention. The now 35-year-old Dariush has always been best known for his high-level grappling ability, showing a great balance of composure, technique and strength. He also has solid wrestling ability too and is good at controlling opponents. And chin-issues aside, Dariush also has developed a respectable striking game that’s enhanced by having notable knockout power.
Moicano is the same age as Dariush, but he’s enjoying a different career trajectory at the moment as he’s actually in the midst of his best ever run, reaching the Top 10 rankings after wins over Brad Riddell, Drew Dober, Jolin Turner and Benoit Saint Denis. Current form aside, Moicano has a number of similarities to Dariush, as he’s also a skilled grappler who has developed a capable striking game to go along with it. And it’s important to note that ‘Money’ is no stranger to durability concerns himself, as between 2019 and 2020 he was stopped three times via strikes. He’s managed to put that behind him since and these days has become a more aggressive finisher himself, finishing a string of fights, with submissions being his best weapon, but also having ruthless ground-and-pound too and respectable striking technique on the feet.
In terms of confidence and momentum these two are in a very different place. And that can’t be highlighted any clear than the fact that Moicano is focusing on a path towards title contention, while Dariush has spoken of potentially retiring if he loses on Saturday night. That being said, I feel as if Moicano could easily find himself going down a similar path to Dariush in the end as I suspect it’s only a matter of time before his own chin-issues come back to haunt him. And while there’s more fire and personality to Moicano’s game, I feel that Dariush is the heavier hitter and also may well be the more fundamentally sound technician on the mat too. So while it feels like a risky pick that may well backfire if Dariush’s chin is as compromised as it seems, I’m going to take him to be the one that ends the fight by TKO mid-way through the fight.
Pick: Beneil Dariush wins by TKO in Rd2.
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Kevin Holland moved back up to 185lbs last year and has gone 1-1 since, and now squares up against former two-division ONE FC champ Reiner de Ridder, who earned a submission victory in his UFC debut.
The 32-year-old is primarily a long limbed, dynamic striker with significant power who throws good straight punches from range backed up by a versatile kicking arsenal. At closer range Holland can shorten up his attacks, making use of effective elbows and knee strikes too. It’s well known that Holland’s previous stint at 185lbs went quite well up until he started facing high-level wrestlers who exposed his issues with takedown defense and getting back to his feet. He has attempted to address that in the years since while competing at 170lbs, and he does seem to be a bit harder to take down these days, while his offensive wrestling and top-side grappling is respectable. That being said, it still feels like he is vulnerable to being stifled when he’s on his back.
The 34-year-old De Ridder has enjoyed respectable success beyond the UFC, although it should be noted that while he won two ONE FC titles, he did go on to lose both in back-to-back fights prior to arriving here. De Ridder is a fighter who will hunt for takedowns in order to utilize his well-versed grappling ability and submission prowess that has accounted for 12 of his career wins, including finishing Gerald Meerschaert in his Octagon debut. De Ridder’s stand-up game is less convincing though and lacks the kind of speed and power required to be a significant threat, while his cardio is also questionable.
If Holland can keep this fight standing by working from range and keeping de Ridder on the end of his strikes then he’ll have a major advantage here. Holland’s dodgy decision-making and impulsive approach means there’s always a chance he’ll end up on the mat, which would swing the fight in de Ridder’s favor. Still, I think Holland’s speed and power will present chances to discourage de Ridder from closing the distance, and he may be able to foil an early takedown attempt or two as well. If so, Holland’s chance improve in the later rounds as de Ridder starts to tire, and I’ll say that results in a 2nd round finish via TKO.
Pick: Kevin Holland wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Karol Rosa vs. Ailín Pérez
Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
