UFC 330 takes place tomorrow night in Philadelphia and you can see our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry
Islam Makhachev looks to break the UFC’s all‑time winning‑streak record (16) on Saturday as he defends his welterweight belt for the first time against Ian Machado Garry, who has amassed a 10–1 run in the promotion.
The 34-year-old Makhachev is widely viewed as the sport’s No.1 pound‑for‑pound fighter after having also defended the UFC lightweight title four times in addition to his current run up at welterweight. Makhachev is the definition of a modern MMA fighter with a complete all-round game, though his wrestling and grappling remain his most dominant weapons. He’s an excellent wrestler and and once on top he mixes assured control with active ground‑and‑pound and a constant submission threat that’s reflected in 13 career submission wins. Taking him to the next level though is the fact that he backs that up by also being a composed, accurate striker with good timing, and aside from a after a KO loss early in his UFC run, he’s been virtually flawless for the past eight years.
The 28-year-old Garry has always been very self-confident and perhaps has never had more reason to be that way after big wins over current No.1 contender Carlos Prates and former champion Belal Muhammad. Garry will benefit from a 5‑inch height and 4‑inch reach advantage over the former lightweight, which suits his calculated, composed and technical kickboxing game from distance. He’ll use good footwork and straight punches to control range and is defensively disciplined, but while he also has good kicks to the legs and body he’ll need to be selective with them to avoid presenting Makhachev opportunities to counter with takedowns. That being said, Garry’s takedown defence is sturdy, and he’s shown he can wrestle offensively at times and grapple too, but it almost goes without saying that he’s far less dangerous on the mat than the champion and actually only has one submission win on his record.
Garry’s size advantage, disciplined striking and respectable takedown defense does give him an opportunity to make life difficult for Makhachev here. That being said though, it still feels like it’s only a matter of time before the champion’s ability to repeatedly chain together high-level takedowns breaks through, and while Garry may survive for a while on the mat, I think Makhachev can eventually wear him down enough to secure a 4th round submission finish.
Pick: Islam Makhachev wins by submission in Rd4.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson
Mackenzie Dern captured the vacant strawweight title last time out to go three-fights unbeaten, and now goes up against Gillian Robertson, who has put together five-fight winning streak.
Dern arrived in the UFC in 2018 with elite BJJ credentials, resulting in early expectations that she could be a future champion. However, over time those hopes faded due to clear flaws in her game, including the fact that a lack of wrestling made it difficult for her to get the fight where she wanted it. On top of that her lack of technical proficiency in the striking department then became a glaring issue, and while she did her best to lean on her toughness it led to her to become a human punching bag at times. A little over two years ago she was stuck in a slump with just two wins in her previous six fights, but she’s persevered and now at 33-years-old she’s regained some momentum and managed to win the vacant belt. she’s been a bit fortunate in that regard as it still feels like there’s plenty of work to do to improve her game, but to fair she has tightened up her striking to be less reliant on brute force and being less hittable, while there’s been some progress in terms of her takedown entries too, giving her more of an opportunity to use her high-level grappling.
The 31-year-old Robertson also arrived in the promotion with a good grappling game, albeit not at the same level, and has actually gone on to claim the record for most submissions in women’s UFC history (7). However, like Dern other aspects of her game were lacking and so She had only compiled a 9–6 run in the promotion before 2024. Since then Robertson has found consistency though, supplementing her submission‑heavy style with effective ground-and-pound, while a drop down to strawweight has helped her compete better physically on the feet, and while her striking is still very much a work-in-progress she is a bit better defensively than in the past.
So both fighters share some similar strengths and weaknesses, but I do still feel that Dern is the better grappler of the two, and while the striking exchanges may leave something to be desired I do think the champion’s physicality and raw power will give her the edge on the feet to help secure a decision win.
Pick: Mackenzie Dern wins by decision.
Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes
Jalin Turner earned a much-needed TKO win over Edson Barboza last time out and now goes up against Kaue Fernandes, who brings a three‑fight streak into his first main‑card appearance.
Beating Barboza was an important moment for Turner as he’d lost four of his previous five fights, which had actually led to him briefly retiring at just 31-years-old last year before quickly changing his mind. That’s led to additional concerns about his mentality, but Turner does still have respectable physical and technical tools to work with. He’s a very big lightweight at 6ft 3″ tall and that’ll see him claim a 6″ height and 4″ reach advantage over Fernandes. Despite his size Turner has good speed and proven punching power, together with solid kicks and has earned 11 of his 15 wins via strikes. Turner can also mix in wrestling and his four other victories all came via submission. His cardio has been questionable at times later on in fights though and he’s actually lost all four of his fights that went to a decision, in addition to also having some durability concerns due to an additional four defeats via strikes.
The 31-year-old Fernandes has gone 3-1 in the UFC so far. He can be an explosive striker and has found good success with kicks, including stopping Harry Hardwick with leg kicks in the 1st round in his latest fights, while back in his LFA days he had back-to-back KO wins thanks to body and head kicks that led to him being signed by the UFC. Fernandes can put together some good combinations, but his output can fade over time, and while his takedown defence has improved, he’s been outwrestled before. Despite that he’s still never been finished in his career.
Turner’s size and power advantage will make him tricky for Fernandes to deal with early in this fight and I think that could lead to a 1st round TKO finish.
Pick: Jalin Turner wins by TKO In Rd1.
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Mansur Abdul‑Malik lost by TKO for the first time in his last career last time out, leaving him sitting at 4‑1‑1 in the UFC so far, and now squares up to Dustin Stoltzfus, who lost twice last year.
The 28-year-old Abdul‑Malik is a tall middleweight with a strong wrestling base, enabling him to land takedowns, deliver heavy ground‑and‑pound, and he owns a couple of submission wins too. However, Abdul-Malik often prefers to strike and make use of his lengthy 80″ reach. He’s fast, explosive, and dangerous with punches and kicks, and he can deploy knees and elbows too, helping him to finish all nine of his career wins inside the distance. There are concerns about his cardio that as he was worn down and then TKO’d for the first time by Yousri Belgaroui in his last Octagon outing.
The 34-year-old Stoltzfus managed to earn a spot in the UFC thanks to his Contender Series opponent Joe Pyfer suffering an injury back in 2020, but he’s struggled to really make an impact since, going just 3–7. Stoltzfus is a steady, well‑conditioned kickboxer, but he lacks the speed and power to consistently threaten opponents, and has only three career wins in total by strikes. He tries to make up for that by being versatile, mixing in capable wrestling and a grappling game that’s provide a bit more of a cutting edge with six submission victories. However, Stoltzfus has also been finished twice by both strikes and submission during his UFC run.
Abdul-Malik has the speed, power and reach to trouble Stoltzfus’ chin and I see that resulting in a 1st round TKO stoppage.
Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by TKO in Rd1.
Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics
Edson Barboza will try to turn around a three‑fight losing skid when he fights Esteban Ribovics, who has just one win in his last three UFC bouts.
Barboza’s slump culminated in a first‑round TKO last December, just a month prior to his 40th birthday. After nearly 16 years in the UFC, he’s long been regarded as one of the promotion’s premier strikers. Even now he remains a sharp technician on the feet with powerful, dynamic kicks, solid punches, dangerous knees, and solid takedown defence. Age has inevitably chipped away at his previously impressive durability though, while his output has also declined, giving opponents more opportunities than in his prime.
The 30-year-old Ribovics is a hard-headed, pressure‑driven striker who thrives on high-volume offense, respectable power and gritty determination. He’s never been finished by strikes and shows good powers of recovery when hurt, but he’d do well to tighten up defensively as it’s only a matter of time before that catches up to him. While he prefers to strike, Ribovics is not one‑dimensional, and in fact he actually started his career with five out of six wins coming via submission, including three kimuras, so he’ll have been disappointed to have been submitted for the first time in his last fight.
At his best Barboza was undoubtedly the better striker of the two, but at this late stage in his career I think it may be challenging for him to cope with Ribovic getting in his face with a higher volume of strikes and better durability, leading to a 2nd round TKO.
Pick: Esteban Ribovics wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez
Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin
Donte Johnson vs. Eric McConico
Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore
Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando
Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai
