UFC On ABC 9 takes place tomorrow in Abu Dhabi and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Robert Whittaker vs. Reiner de Ridder
Robert Whittaker was quickly submitted by Khamzat Chimaev in his last fight and suffered a broken jaw in the process. Now the former middleweight champion hopes to bounce back against ex ONE FC champion Reiner de Ridder, who is on a three-fight winning streak since joining the promotion.
Though Whittaker was ragdolled by Khamzat last year, the 34-year-old’s full body of work suggests that was a one-off as he’s generally had sturdy takedown defense over the years and only has one other submission loss on his record. There’s no doubt that Whittaker’s striking is his strongest suit though and he continues to be an assured boxer who can work behind the jab well and uses that to set up harder-hitting punches with good speed, while also having a knack for slipping in the occasional crafty head kick into his combinations. Meanwhile, Whittaker’s footwork has always been a plus point and helps him to keep the fight at the distance he wants it and set up angles of attack.
De Ridder’s transition from ONE FC to the UFC has been very smooth, already proving his worth with wins over blue-chip prospect Bo Nickal as well as more experienced veterans like Kevin Holland and Gerald Meerschaert. De Ridder is not really known for his striking prowess, but the former 205lb’er is big for the division, has respectable fundamentals and makes use of his long limbs with his knees in particular having stopped a few opponents, including Nickal last time out. It’s really on the mat where de Ridder does his best work though as in addition to capable wrestling he’s also a well-versed, methodical grappler who has finished 13 of his 20 victories via submission.
De Ridder will have a harder time getting Whittaker to the mat than Khamzat, and on the feet I’d expect Whittaker to have a big advantage as he’s faster, more fluid and more impactful too, and so I’ll take him to gradually wear down his opponent and find a TKO finish in the third round.
Pick: Robert Whittaker wins by TKO in Rd3.
Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee
Despite having won back-to-back fights and holding the No.3 spot on the bantamweight rankings, Petr Yan now finds himself in a fight with the No.13 ranked Marcus McGhee, who is 4-0 in the Octagon so far.
There was a time when the 32-year-old Yan was one of the most feared fighters in the division, but three losses in a row proved he wasn’t invincible. However, considering that two of those losses were by narrow split-decision against two men who have also been champion in Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley, and the other was against the current dominant divisional kingpin Merab Dvalishvili, that doesn’t seem so bad. Now coming off a couple of wins, Yan is still a skilled technician in the boxing department who has fast, accurate punches, pieces together combinations well and is robust defensively too. He does a good job of reading his opponents and as the fight goes on he ratchets up his volume and intensity, pushing a pace that’s hard to keep up with. He’s also never been stopped in his career by either strikes or submission and has solid takedown defense.
This is a really big opportunity for the 35-year-old McGhee given that he’s only recently made it into the rankings after a unanimous decision win over Jonathan Martinez. McGhee’s fighting style has clearly made an impact on the UFC’s matchmakers to land this fight as he is the kind of fighter who likes to press forward with an offensive focus and hunt for a finish. He’s not the most technical fighter, but he’s a rugged, aggressive and hard-hitting boxer who can mix in solid kicks too, and has a proven ability to end fights, with eight of his 10 wins coming via strikes. He can also wrestle and notched up his first submission win in his UFC debut.
McGhee is always going to have a puncher’s chance, but I think the big gap in the rankings between the two fighters here will also be evident in the striking exchanges as Yan is far more smooth, technical and calculated in his approach, and I expect him to pick apart McGhee over three rounds to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Petr Yan wins by decision.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Bryce Mitchell suffered a submission loss to Jean Silva last time out and now drops down to bantamweight to fight Said Nurmagomedov, who has gone 1-2 in his last three fights.
The 30-year-old Mitchell has become better known for his bizarre and often controversial opinions than his fighting ability, which is unfortunate as when he first arrived in the UFC he seemed to have real promise. His skilled grappling ability in particular stood out and even helped him notch up a rare twister submission, though more often not it was just good control, instinctive scrambling and solidly capable wrestling that helped him on his way to a six-fight winning streak. His striking is more of a mixed bag though as while he’s willing to engage and has respectable power, he’s not proven to be as technical or effective there. And in general as time has gone on it’s become apparent he’s hit a bit of a ceiling at the upper-end of the division, although there’s certainly no shame in having picked up losses to top talents like ilia Topuria, Josh Emmett and Jean Silva in recent years.
Nurmagomedov isn’t related to Khabib and other notable fighters that share his name, and despite hailing from Dagestan he’s not really all that much of a wrestler either. Instead, the 33-year-old’s primary focus is on his dynamic striking ability, with kicks being a particular focus of attack to all levels, while he’ll also feed in good knee strikes and spinning attacks along with his punches. Meanwhile he can wrestle to an extent, but he’s more comfortable working for submissions and likes to pounce on guillotine choke opportunities on the feet. So far he’s gone 7-3 in the UFC, with three of his wins coming via submission and two via strikes, with all three of his losses being on the scorecards.
Nurmagomedov is the better, more creative striker of the two here, but Mitchell’s ground game is better and I think he can take advantage of his opponent’s less-than-stellar takedown defense to get the fight where he wants it and control the action on the mat to win by decision.
Pick: Bryce Mitchell wins by decision.
Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Marc-André Barriault
Shara Magomedov’s four-fight winning streak was ended by Michael ‘Venom’ Page earlier in the year and now he’ll try to get back on track against Marc-Andre Barriault, who snapped a three-fight losing slump last time out due to a knockout victory.
Magomedov struggled to solve the puzzle of ‘Venom’s’ size, range and crafty striking last time out, but he’s found better success against his other opponents in the Octagon so far. Magomedov is very offensively minded and likes to unleash a wide variety of dynamic striking techniques on the feet. He utilizes all eight limbs effectively, has found good success with knee strikes, and has shown his creative flair with unexpected strikes and spins, including a double-spinning backfist KO finish last year. His defense isn’t the best though and his high-volume striking does expend a lot of energy, though he generally fights through that better than you might expect in the later rounds. However, despite being from Dagestan, Magomedov shows little interest in wrestling and has questionable takedown defense.
The 35-year-old Barriault is a strongly built middleweight who likes to press forward with basic striking fundamentals and outlast his opponent in the exchanges with his volume and good cardio. The problem with this workmanlike approach is that he’s no stranger to getting hit, and his chin is now showing the effects of that, suffering back-to-back 1st round KO losses in 2024. As such, his quick win over Bruno Silva last time out was a much needed confidence booster, but given how short the fight was, and how completely shot his opponent is after losing 7 of his last 8 fights, it’s a fight that didn’t settle concerns as to his durability at this stage in his career.
This doesn’t look like a good match-up for Barriault as Magomedov is faster, has a much more diverse striking arsenal and is consistently looking to go on the attack. As such I think Barriault’s chin is going to be tested sooner rather than later here, and I think Magomedov will emerge with a 1st round TKO finish.
Pick: Shara Magomedov wins by TKO in Rd1.
Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov
Nikita Krylov suffered a 1st round KO loss to Dominick Reyes in April that ended a three-fight winning streak. Now he’ll get back on the horse against Bogdan Guskov, who is on a three-fight winning streak.
Krylov might have been suffering from some ring rust in his last fight given that he was returning after being sidelined for two years due to a lengthy rehab period following surgery on a shoulder injury. Despite being an action-orientated fighter whose aggressive and sometimes reckless approach can leave him exposed defensively, the 33-year-old has actually only suffered one other loss via strikes in his career. Meanwhile his own finishing rate is impressive, with all but two of his 30 career wins having come via either strikes or submission. On the feet he likes to attack in volume with a versatile array of strikes to get the job done, while he’s also equally eager to find a finish on the mat, with no less than 16 submission wins to his name. That being said, he’s prone to defensive lapses on the mat too and that’s led to six losses via submission over the years.
The 32-year-old Guskov is primarily a striker who also has a reputation as a finisher, with 14 of his 17 finishes coming via strikes and the other three by submission. Guskov is a more straight-forward operator than Krylov, sticking to the basics and relying on his heavy hands to be the difference-maker, which has paid off so far, including TKO’ing Ryan Spann last time out. Despite a few submission wins too he’s not the most technical on the mat either, and indeed Volkan Oezdemir was able to notch up a rare submission over him in his UFC debut.
Krylov is the more talented, skillful fighter here wherever the fight goes, but his carelessness could still cost him if he’s not careful. His best avenue of attack here would be to get the fight to the mat where he has a bigger advantage and less risk, and I feel he will find a submission finish by the 2nd round.
Pick: Nikita Krylov wins by submission in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa
Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci
Muslim Salikhov vs. Carlos Leal Miranda
Ibo Aslan vs. Billy Elekana
Martin Buday vs. Marcus Buchecha
Mohammad Yahya vs. Steven Nguyen
Davey Grant vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
