UFC Fight Night 240 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis
After his intended opponent Marvin Vettori withdrew due to an injury, Brendan Allen will instead attempt to improve upon his current six-fight winning streak against Chris Curtis, who has gone 5-2 (+1nc) in the UFC so far and accepted the fight on three weeks notice.
This will be the 2nd encounter between these two as they also fought back in December of 2021, with Curtis again coming in on short notice as the underdog only to emerge with an upset TKO finish. The 28-year-old Allen has gone on a lengthy winning streak since though, with his well-rounded skill-set being bolstered by improvements to his striking game, while he’s also been leaning into his strong grappling ability on the mat, where he is adept at taking the back and sinking in the rear-naked choke, which has finished five of his last six opponents.
It may be challenging to replicate that against Curtis though as he has strong takedown defense and does a good job of defending himself on the mat and finding his way back to his feet. In fact in 42 career fights he’s only been submitted once, and he’s just as hard to finish on the feet, having also only been stopped by strikes one time. Meanwhile, offensively Curtis is on the smaller side for a middleweight, but he packs power in his punches thanks to his tightly wound, compact boxing on the inside and has good counter-striking ability.
In their last fight Allen perhaps underestimated Curtis on the feet, being a bit too willing to exchange with him on the feet, perhaps believing that with his 4″ height advantage and being a naturally bigger fighter for the weight class that he could impose his will on him. However, I expect he’ll have learned his lesson this time and will be more careful not to get into the pocket with Curtis where he’s most dangerous, and instead engage him more on the outside with kicks to all levels, while also utilizing more movement, which tends to frustrate ‘The Action Man’. Together with blending in takedown and scrambling opportunities I think that will enable Allen to win rounds and emerge with a decision victory.
Pick: Brendan Allen wins by decision.
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Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson
Alexander Hernandez has struggled to put together a consistent run in the UFC so far, going 6-6 and will attempt to bounce back from his latest loss when he goes up against Damon Jackson, who also has a fairly patchy 5-3-1 (+1nc) record.
While the 31-year-old Hernandez’s UFC record doesn’t look good at first glance he has claimed some notable victories over the years, including knocking out Beneil Dariush in his UFC debut, beating Francisco Trinaldo and more recently having got the better of the in-form veteran Jim Miller early last year. He’s a strong, athletic fighter with good boxing ability, solid kicks and he can drive in for takedowns nicely too. Cardio has been an issue for Hernandez at times though as he can overexert himself early in the fight while looking for a finish, and as such it’s perhaps telling that all three times he’s been finished by strikes it came beyond the mid-way point of the fight.
The 35-year-old Jackson isn’t as athletic or powerful of a striker as Hernandez, but he compensates for that by pushing a hard pace throughout his fights and constantly pressuring his opponents. He’ll blend his striking with wrestling and good grappling, with the latter being a key component of his game that’s resulted in 15 submission finishes from 22 career wins. However, while he’s got plenty of grit and determination, Jackson’s chin has faltered at times, with each of his four career losses from strikes coming from definitive KO’s.
There’s certainly a path to victory for Jackson here if he can just push the pace and use his cardio to shift the momentum in his favor as time goes on, but I do think Hernandez is still the more dangerous fighter of the two and I think this is a fight where his early offensive action can pay dividends, leading him to a TKO finish in the opening round.
Pick: Alexander Hernandez wins by TKO in Rd1.
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Morgan Charriere vs. Chepe Mariscal
After winning his UFC debut by way of a 1st round knockout, Morgan Charriere now takes on Chepe Mariscal, who has gone 2-0 in the Octagon so far.
The 28-year-old Charriere is a popular fighter in his native France and a former Cage Warriors champion. He’s a patient striker with good technique who tries not to be wasteful with his output, though that can mean he’s not always as active as you’d like to see. However when he does fire his weapons he does so with good power and accuracy in both his punches and kicks. Charriere also has good takedown defense and is comfortable on the mat. He’s also never been stopped by strikes and only once by submission, but with his style of fighting he has at times struggled to get the judges on his side if the fight goes to the scorecards.
The 31-year-old Mariscal comes in on around a month’s notice for this fight. He’s a hard-headed brawler who likes to swarm his opponents with strikes, trying to overcome them with his intensity and solid power. His defense suffers from this though and he can be hurt, but he’s willing to fight through adversity. Mariscal has a background in judo and can also wrestle too, but his overall skill-set is more of a blunt instrument than a scalpel.
I’m a bit torn on this pick as I can certainly see how Mariscal’s pressure and activity together with his toughness could lead him to a win on the scorecards here. However, as durable as he is his defensive flaws are something that a calculated striker like Charriere should be able to capitalize on, and I can see him rocking the on-rushing Mariscal at some stage and then turning up the heat to finish him by TKO.
Pick: Morgan Charriere wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos
Ignacio Bahamondes three-fight winning streak came to an end last time out, leaving him 3-2 in the UFC as he now squares up to Christos Giagos, who has gone 6-7 across two spells in the UFC and is coming off a submission loss.
The 26-year-old Bahamondes is a tall and lengthy lightweight who will hold a 3″ height and 4″ reach advantage over Giagos. He’s a sound technical striker, though he doesn’t always use his reach as much as he should since he likes to press forward and operate at closer quarters. Still, he has good power in his hands, has some good finishes via kicks and works well to both the head and body. He’s also shown solid takedown defense, can work for submissions on the mat, and despite his size he has a good gas tank.
The 34-year-old Giagos is an athletic all-rounder who is willing to to press forward and engage his opponent on the feet or on the mat. Typically he does better when he picks the latter option as he’s a capable offensive wrestler who utilizes ground-and-pound nicely and can work for submissions too. That being said, he has been vulnerable to being submitted at times and indeed his last two losses came via chokes. Giagos energetic approach can also tax his cardio, which is likely to become more of an issue now he’s in his mid-30’s and he’s perhaps starting to show early signs of declining durability too.
Giagos is a solid test for Bahamondes, but I think it’s one the younger, bigger fighter will pass thanks to his sharper striking and better cardio, which will lead him to a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes wins by decision.
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Valter Walker vs. Lukasz Brzeski
Valter Walker is undefeated in his 11-fight career as he now prepares to make his UFC debut against Contender Series prospect Lukasz Brzeski, who has yet to register a win in his three UFC fights so far.
Hailing from Russia and previously fighting under the surname Ignacio, the 26-year-old Walker is in fact the half-brother of UFC fighter Johnny Walker. Like his sibling Walker is very big for his weight class, standing 6ft 6″ with an 81″ reach and tipping the scales at 265lbs despite still being in good shape. Don’t expect Valter to be another wild, athletic, dynamic striker like his brother though as his style is not like that at all. Instead he’s quite plodding in his approach and tends to throw winging punches with power but not much poise or precision, and he’s very open to being hit back. He does mix in some nice knee strikes though and he also likes to work his wrestling, which seems a bit more refined than his stand-up game.
The 31-year-old Brzeski can count himself lucky to still be in the UFC as when he first signed for the UFC via the Contender Series he actually immediately failed a drug test, and for some reason has been kept around despite going 0-3 since, including being KO’d in the opening round in his last fight. Due to Walker being a huge heavyweight he’ll be at a 4″ height, 3″ reach and 20lbs weight disadvantage here, but he will be lighter on his feet and quicker to the punch than his opponent. He’s a decent all-rounder offensively, but he’s not especially potent on the feet and can be outwrestled on the mat.
Walker seems quite raw in the striking department, but with his size and willingness to throw big strikes I think he can still trouble Brzeski on the feet here. And if that doesn’t pay off I think Walker can also use his capable wrestling to get the job done here.
Pick: Valter Walker wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Trevor Peek vs. Charlie Campbell
Two Contender series recruits fight in the main card opener, with Trevor Peek having had a 2-1 stint in the UFC to date, while Charlie Campbell has gone 2-0.
The 29-year-old Peek is the very definition of an all-action fighter, showing no regard for his own personal safety as he wades into battle throwing wild punches with little technique but plenty of enthusiasm and good durability. It doesn’t sound like a recipe in the long-run, but it paid off for him on the regional scene with numerous finishes and he continued that in the early stages of his UFC run, claiming a TKO win on the Contender Series and then a KO win in his UFC debut. However, Chepe Mariscal (found elsewhere on this card) was able to match his energy and intensity and defeated him and last time out Peek changed to a slower-paced style that earned him the first decision win of his career.
At 6ft tall, the 28-year-old is a big lightweight who will have a 3″ height advantage and 2″ in reach over Peek. Like his opponent Peek likes to press the action from the start and is no stranger to finishing fights early, but he’s less of a wild-man, being more technical with his strikes and having a better kicking game too. It’s worth noting though that Campbell actually lost his only fight in the Contender Series by 1st round KO, so there is a question mark over the quality of his chin.
It’ll be interesting to see if Peek continues to tone down his aggressive instincts after being successful with that last fight, but I suspect Campbell’s style is going to lure him into a slug-fest and while he may have the stronger chin I think Campbell’s commitment to cleaner offense will see him find the gaping holes in Peek’s defense, leading to a 2nd round TKO stoppage win.
Pick: Charlie Campbell wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Prelims (predicted winners in bold)
Court McGee vs. Alex Morono
Norma Dumont vs. Germaine de Randamie
Alatengheili vs. Victor Hugo
Piera Rodriguez vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Nora Cornolle vs. Melissa Dixon
Dan Argueta vs. Jean Matsumoto
Dylan Budka vs. Cesar Almeida
