UFC On ESPN 59 takes place tomorrow night in Denver, Colorado and you can see our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
Former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas earned her first victory at flyweight against Amanda Ribas in March and was preparing to headline this weekend’s event against Maycee Barber. However, a couple of weeks ago there was a switch in opponent that means she’ll now be going up against Tracy Cortez, who has gone 5-0 in the promotion so far.
The 32-year-old Namajunas’ style has evolved a lot over the years, from the more daredevil, submission-hunting style of her youth through to the clean, calculated and strategic striking that helped her win the 115lb title on two occasions. In the present day as she tries to push towards title contention at 125lbs it feels like she’s become more cautious and risk-adverse, largely sticking to using her slick footwork while working behind a cultured jab, and being more likely to look for position rather than submission when on the mat. As such some of the sting has been taken out of her offense, but she’s still technically very sound.
The 30-year-old Cortez has been enjoying a nice run in the UFC so far, although she hasn’t faced a ranked opponent yet, so this is a major step-up. Cortez is a bit scrappy on the feet skill-wise, but she has found success using her wrestling and physicality to control fights on the mat, aided by her solid grappling ability. Her technique is certainly less refined than Namajunas though and she’s also offered up little in the way of a finishing threat so far in her career, with just two stoppage wins from 11 victories.
I still feel that Namajunas is better suited to fighting at 115lbs and having had struggles with the mental side of fighting at times in the past I do wonder whether the desire is still there to fight at her very best. It’s hard to say for sure, but even so I do believe that she is the better fighter here in most areas and should be able to pick apart Cortez’s more rudimentary striking on the feet and be the slicker grappler too. A submission finish is certainly a possibility if she’s willing to commit to it, but given her more cautious approach lately I’ll say she wins by decision.
Pick: Rose Namajunas wins by decision.
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Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
Santiago Ponznibbio and Muslim Salikhov are both in a similar position heading into this fight as they have each lost 3 of their last 4 fights and were KO’d last time out.
The 37-year-old Ponzinibbio has never been quite the same since he had to take a couple of years out in late 2018 due to a health issues at a time when he was on a 7-fight unbeaten run. He found it tough to regain his momentum after that and has only gone 2-4 since returning in 2021. However, though he’s not as quick or as durable as he once was he’s still not an easy fighter to go up against with his pressure-based kickboxing, attacking well in combination with respectable power in his punches and kicks.
Salikhov turned 40-years-old last month and it is a big concerning that after never being stopped by strikes for much of his career he has now suffered a TKO and KO loss in the past two years. Salikhov is quite economical with his offensive output, but he has very good timing and is still a talented striker when he does attack, landing accurate punches with power in addition to having dynamic kicks and the extra threat of occasional spinning-based attacks in his locker. Despite being known as the ‘King Of Kung Fu’, Salikhov also has an underrated wrestling game that he will use at times.
So age and durability are a concern for both of these veterans, but neither are completely shot at this stage. I do think Ponzinibbio still has a bit more to offer though given that he’ll be push the pace and be the more active striker of the two, and so I’ll say he comes away with a win on the scorecards here.
Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision.
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Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva
Coming off a decision loss to Renato Moicano earlier in the year, Drew Dober was expecting to fight Mike Davis on Saturday night. Instead an injury means he’ll now be taking on Jean Silva instead, who is only a couple of weeks removed from a knockout victory against Charles Jourdain at UFC 303.
The 35-year-old Dober can be a real problem on the feet thanks to his big punching power, strong chin and he also has good cardio that’ll be aided even more than usual here since he trains in Denver and is acclimatized to the altitude. His style does rely a bit too much on his durability though, and while up until recently that served him well, a 1st round TKO loss to Matt Frevola last year showed he’s not bullet-proof, while his defensive wrestling is also a weak point.
The 27-year-old Silva is also a heavy-handed striker who likes to bring the fight to his opponent and has the stats to prove it with 10 of his 13 victories coming in that manner. On top of that, becoming the first person to stop Jourdain via KO brings further credibility to his striking credentials. Taking another fight so soon after his last is a bit risky though, and he’ll actually be stepping up to 155lbs for the opportunity too. That was a move that looked like it might happen anyway though since he actually failed to make weight last time out, and he’ll only give up 1″ in height and reach in this particular match-up.
Given their firepower and similar styles this one should produce fireworks and could go either way, but even if his durability has taken a bit of a knock Dober is still very tough, and so I think fighting him on short notice and up a weight class will prove a bit too much for Silva, leading to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Drew Dober wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa
Gabriel Bonfim was 15-0 in his career and had two 1st round submission wins in the UFC heading into his last fight, before suffering an upset TKO loss to Nicholas Dalby. Next he’ll be going up against Ange Loosa, who was beaten in his first UFC appearance, then won two fights in a row before suffering an eye-poke last time out that resulted in a no-contest ruling.
Bonfirm’s loss was certainly a learning experience for the 26-year-old, but he was actually doing well against Dalby up until he ran out of steam due to his opponent’s incredible durability and relentless pace. He’s still a very talented fighter with a wide-ranging skill-set who should have a bright future in the sport. Bonfim likes to make use of his striking ability, fighting at a good pace with assured kickboxing technique and nice shot selection. In terms of a finishing threat though it’s really the mat where he has really made an impact, with his choked-based series of submissions having stopped 12 of his 15 career wins inside the distance. On top of that he also has the wrestling chops to be able to get the fight to the mat in the first place, so he’s comfortable wherever the fight goes.
The 31-year-old Loosa is a physically strong, atheltic fighter who will have 2″ in reach over Bonfim despite being 3″ shorter. Loosa is fairly well-rounded too, blending respectable striking with wrestling, and he’s yet to be stopped by either strikes or submission in his career, although on the other hand he has not been able to deliver a stoppage win himself in the past six years.
It’ll be interesting to see if being TKO’d last time and having his cardio pushed beyond his limit will affect how he performs on Saturday night. I suspect he’ll get right back to business with another assured performance against an opponent he should have the advantage over in most areas, leading to a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Gabriel Bonfim wins by submission in Rd2.
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Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
Julian Erosa claimed a submission win in March after having lost two-in-a-row prior to that, and now looks to build on that against Christian Rodriguez, who has amassed a four-fight winning streak over the past couple of years.
The 34-year-old Erosa is a lanky featherweight who will have a 6″ height and 3″ reach advantage on Saturday night. He’s not just the kind of fighter who will use his size to work on the outside though as he has a naturally war-minded mentality and will aggressively take the fight to his opponents. He is crafty on the feet, but also on the mat where he has proven to be a significant submission threat, leading to his overall record of 24 finishes from 28 wins. That being said he also has 11 losses, with most of them coming when he’s gone up against higher level opposition. And part of the problem is that despite his mental fortitude his chin has let him down at times, including being stopped by strikes six times in the UFC.
Going up against a veteran like Erosa is a change of pace for the 26-year-old Rodriguez, who has been building a reputation as a prospect-killer of late with wins over Raul Rosas Jr, Cameron Saaiman and Isaac Dulgarian. He doesn’t have a particularly eye-catching style in any particular regard, but he has a well-versed grasp of the fundamentals in all aspects of MMA along with good cardio and a quiet sense of composure and self-confidence that is becoming increasingly well-earned with each victory he gets under his belt.
It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out as Rodriguez has typically been able to absorb what prospects have thrown at him and then turn the screw later on, but Erosa tends to just keep going unless he’s stopped. Still, I do like how cool-headed Rodriguez remains under pressure and Erosa’s wilder offense will leave openings that he can exploit. Rodriguez doesn’t seem to have the biggest finishing power, but I think he could at least have Erosa hurt at some stage, which will help him eek out a decision victory.
Pick: Christian Rodriguez wins by decision.
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Cody Brundage vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
After being submitted by Bo Nickal at UFC 300 in a fight nobody expected him to have a chance in, Cody Brundage now takes on Abdul Razak Alhassan, who is also coming off a submission loss in his last fight against Joe Pyfer.
The 30-year-old Brundage only has a 4-5 record in the UFC, but he had won two fights in a row prior to his mismatch against Nickal. Brundage’s wrestling ability was redundant against someone of that rising star’s calibre, but it could be more useful in this fight if he chooses to use it against the striker. Brundage does like the throw hands too though, typically relying more on raw power than technique.
Alhassan turned 39 in August and his recent record doesn’t inspire confidence at first glance, having only won two of his last seven fights. Still, both of those victories came by knockout, serving a reminder that he remains a dynamic and potent striking threat with hard-hitting punches and fast kicks. Alhassan also has a judo background, but isn’t much of a presence on the mat and has also had cardio issues at times.
I think Brundage has to commit to his wrestling game here, but I can see the early action taking place on the feet and I think Alhassan has significant advantage there with his sharper striking and wider range of weapons, leading to a first round TKO victory.
Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan wins by TKO in Rd1.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Mariya Agapova vs. Luana Santos
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Montel Jackson
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline
Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski
Charles Johnson vs. Joshua Van
