UFC Fight Night 243 takes place in Paris, France tomorrow and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Renato Moicano vs. Benoît Saint Denis
Three wins in a row have taken Renato Moicano to within one place of the lightweight Top 10 and now he takes the main event spot on Saturday against the No.12 ranked Benoit Saint Denis, whose five-fight winning streak was ended by Dustin Poirier via KO back in March.
Moicano’s 10-year run in the UFC has led to some good wins, some disappointing losses and a number of injury setbacks, but now at 35-years-old he’s perhaps more relevant than ever thanks to his increasingly vocal persona being backed up by strong results in the Octagon with victories over the likes of Brad Riddell, Drew Dober and Jalin Turner over the past couple of years. Moicano’s strongest suit is his skilled grappling ability and he’s adept at working his way to his opponent’s back where he can control the action or find finishes via rear-naked choke. He has enough wrestling to get the fight to the mat, but he’s not entirely reliant on his ground game as he’s actually a clean, technical striker from range. That being said, he lacks stopping power on the feet and being TKO’d twice and KO’d once in the space of less than two years back in 2019-2020 highlighted the fact he doesn’t have a strong chin.
The 28-year-old Saint Denis quickly became a fan-favorite in the UFC thanks to his all-action style and finishing ability both on the feet and on the mat. That was evident during his five-fight unbeaten run in the Octagon in which he racked up three wins via strikes and two via submission. BSD is physically strong and fights at a high-tempo, including high-volume offense that looks to overwhelm opponents with thumping kicks and hard-hitting punches. Generally Saint Denis has also shown an ability to just walk through his opponent’s offense, but while he was getting the better of Poirier last time out, his willingness to take punishment suddenly led him to being KO’d. BSD is far from reliant on his striking though as he also uses his forward pressure to initiate takedowns, and it’s actually his submission game that accounts for the majority of his finishes. It’s worth noting that he’s only been to the scorecards once in his career and lost on that occasion, and has never gone beyond the third round, which could be a concern given how energetic his fighting style is.
Coming off his first ever KO loss BSD will draw confidence from the fact that Moicano only registered one TKO win in his entire career, and is historically the more vulnerable of the two in terms of durability. Moicano might be a bit more technical, but I’d expect Saint Denis to more than make up for that with his aggression and power advantage, while he’s also good enough on the mat to compete too. So I’ll take him to get back to winning ways courtesy of a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Benoit Saint Denis wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen
Nassourdine Imavov has enjoyed a good 2024 campaign so far with wins over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier and now looks to further improve upon his 4th place in the middleweight rankings when he locks horns with Brendan Allen, who has strung together a seven-fight winning streak that’s taken him to the No.8 spot.
Despite being born in Dagestan, Imavov has been in France since he was 9 and has been a Parisian since he was 19. The 29-year-old has a sturdy physical presence and is a very solid all-rounder. On the feet he does a good job of keeping opponents on the end of his punches and kicks from range with respectable rather than rip-roaring power, demonstrating good technique and an ability to counter-strike effectively. He’s not as comfortable when he’s under sustained pressure, but he’s generally quite sound defensively and has never been stopped via strikes. Imavov can use his wrestling both offensively and defensively and has solid ground-and-pound, while he also can be a submission threat, but hasn’t actually finished with one since his time on the regional circuit.
The 28-year-old Allen also fits the mould of a fighter with a well-rounded skill-set. He has good cardio and implements that into his hard-working style, pushing the pace wherever possible. He’s worked to improve his striking over time and has the fundamentals covered nicely, with his kicks being a plus point. That being said he’s not known as much of a finisher on the feet and his defensive isn’t particularly air-tight. Still, despite a couple of TKO losses earlier in his UFC run, he’s fared better in recent years in that regard. It’s really on the mat that Allen is most difficult to deal with though as he maintains a relentless pace with frequent takedown attempts and very active grappling that will see him doing a good job of getting the back, with five of his last seven wins coming via rear-naked choke.
Allen’s high-energy work-rate could give him the edge here, particularly on the mat, but in the end I’m slightly favoring Imavov due the fact he’s the more natural striker with more power and a deeper understanding of how to win exchanges, leading him to a competitive decision victory.
Pick: Nassourdine Imavov wins by decision.
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William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito
The main card of this event is filled with French fighters, with William Gomis being one of them as he attempts to build on a three-fight winning streak against Joanderson Brito, who is unbeaten in his last five fights in the Octagon.
A tall, lengthy fighter, the 27-year-old actually only has an inch in reach over Brio despite being 4″ taller. As with several of his French kickboxing counterparts on this card he likes to operate at quite a slow and steady pace from the outside, making up for his lack of volume with good speed and technique when he does land, and the power to end fights at times, including a body kick KO in the 3rd round last time out. Meanwhile if the distance is closed he’ll clinch up or sometimes counter with a takedown, but he’s less assured on the mat.
The 29-year-old Brito is a fast-paced, athletic fighter with a broader set of skills than Gomis. He does a good job of blending the aspects of his game together, with fast strikes and footwork upright being combined with very good wrestling and assured grappling. And Brito is a proven finisher too, with both strikes and submissions in almost equal measure having led him to ending 15 of his 17 career wins inside the distance.
I think Brito can be fairly competitive on the feet here, but it’s his overall tempo and far superior skills on the mat that will lead him to a 2nd round finish via submission here.
Pick: Joanderson Brito wins by submission in Rd2.
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Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle
Kevin Jousset has started off his UFC run with two wins and now faces former TUF winner Bryan Battle, who appeared to be getting the better of his last fight before an eye-poke led to a contest, but had compiled a 5-1 record in the promotion before that.
The 31-year-old Jousset is a tall, well-built kickboxer who will largely sticks to the basics with impactful kicks to the legs and body when at distance, and likes to plant his feet and throw hooks at closer range. He lacks fluidity on the feet though, but he brings other threats in the form of his judo, which enables him to step in for trips and throws, while his elbows are a good weapon when he’s on top on the mat.
With TUF not really being a big deal these days, the 30-year-old Battle hasn’t received much of a promotional push, but he’s been quietly putting together a nice run of form, particularly since dropping down to welterweight a couple of years ago. That move seemed to suit him well and a couple of KO wins along the way will certainly have helped his confidence too. He has real determination to his approach, applying pressure well on the feet with high-volume striking and pieces together his combinations nicely. He’ll try to keep the fight upright for the most part, but he can go for the occasional takedowns and will threaten with submission on the mat.
Battle’s game seems to have developed nicely and by taking the fight to Jousset and piecing together the more effective strikes I’ll take him to claim a decision win here.
Pick: Bryan Battle wins by decision.
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Morgan Charrière vs. Gabriel Miranda
Morgan Charrier started off his time in the UFC with TKO and KO victories, but after losing via split-decision last time out he now faces Gabriel Miranda, who was beaten in his promotional debut, but has since picked up a submission win.
The 28-year-old Charriere is a patient striker with good ability who prefers to be a sniper rather than a brawler, waiting for the right opportunities to land his offense. Charriere also has solid takedown defense and isn’t afraid to mix things up with submission attempts on the mat. It’s a style that’s generally worked out for him as he’s got the power to end fights and has 11 T(KO) finishes to prove it, but he can suffer when the fight goes to the scorecards, with all but one of his 10 career losses coming via decision.
The 34-year-old Miranda isn’t the most active fighter on the roster, with there having being year-long gaps in-between each of his fights to date. He’s very much a submission specialist and can boast no less than 16 finishes in that fashion from his 17 win overall. He’s not too much of a striking threat and his wrestling is ok at best, but he does do quite a good job of creating scrambles that can bring his submission game into play.
I think Miranda will have a hard time against Charriere though given that ‘The Last Pirate’ maintains distance well and has respectable takedown defense. And on the feet there should be only one winner, so I’ll take Charriere to patiently pick apart Miranda on his way to a 3rd round TKO finish.
Pick: Morgan Charriere wins by TKO in Rd3.
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Farès Ziam vs. Matt Frevola
Opening up the main car dwill be a Fares Ziam, who has won his last three fights and now fights Matt Frevola, who also had a trio of wins to his name before being KO’d in 91 seconds by main event star Benoit Saint Denis late last year.
The 27-year-old Ziam’s tall, lanky frame gives him a clear size advantage here, with an extra 4″ in height and reach over Frevola. He’s another long-range, slow-tempo kickboxer who has good footwork to keep the fight at his range and picks out clean strikes at the time of his choosing without taking too much in return. He’ll also seek out the clinch at times and is comfortable there, but while he’s can also find the occasional submission win on the mat, he’s been finished there himself a few times. In general Ziam had a good finishing rate on the regional circuit, but since joining the UFC he has been happy to be more cautious and just outpoint his opponents.
The 34-year-old Frevola is one of those fighters who has a good wrestling base, but has moved away from it over time due to having discovered his natural punching power. And that’s led him to some good wins in the UFC, including TKO’ing the normally very-durable Drew Dober in less than a round last year. However, Frevola’s forward-pressure and less than convincing defense has been problematic, with his KO loss last November being the third time he’s now been knocked out over the years.
I think Frevola has a good chance here, particularly if he uses his wrestling, but given that he’s more likely to want to let his hands go I think Ziam might just prove to be slick and elusive enough on the outside to frustrate him and eek out a decision win.
Pick: Fares Ziam wins by decision.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Ion Cuțelaba vs. Ivan Erslan
Oumar Sy vs. Jung Da-woon
Ľudovít Klein vs. Roosevelt Roberts
Daria Zheleznyakova vs. Ailín Pérez
Daniel Barez vs. Victor Altamirano
Bolaji Oki vs. Chris Duncan
