UFC Fight Night 244 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
Former flyweight title contender Brandon Royval has gone 4-1 in his last five fights and no takes the main event spot on this card against Tatsuro Taira, who is in fine form at the moment, having won all six of his fights in the UFC.
The 32-year-old Royval has an unwavering commitment to offense on the feet, keeping a high pace while offering up a wide variety of strikes on the feet that keeps his opponents guessing. For all that he isn’t much of a finisher on the feet and while he is skilled, at times it feels he could benefit from a more composed, efficient and accurate approach. On the mat he also stays very active with lots of fast and furious scrambling and submission attempts, leading to nine finishes from 16 career victories.
The 24-year-old Taira is a former Shooto champion and has managed to amass an unbeaten 16-0 record in his career so far. Taira’s striking approach contrasts with Royval’s as he’s more patient and shows good accuracy and clean technique from range. Meanwhile Taira has very good grappling and has a good number of submission finishes on his record, while he’s also a fairly capable wrester and clinch-fighter too.
Royval’s high tempo could potentially unsettle Taira on the feet, but I think the Japanese fighters more clinical striking and skill on the mat will help him edge out a decision victory.
Pick: Tatsuro Taira wins by decision.
Brad Tavares vs. Jun-Yong Park
Just 1-3 in his last four fights, Brad Tavares now features in the co-main event against Jun-Yong Park, whose four-fight unbeaten run came to an end lats time out via split-decision.
Tavares is a 36-year-old veteran of the 185lbs ranks, having been fighting in the UFC for no less than 14 years. Tavares has a stripped down, consistent style that’s based around solid boxing fundamentals, making good use of the jab, range management and low kicks, together with having good cardio and solid takedown defense. A distinct lack of stopping power has hindered his chances of becoming a more notable star, having only won twice via finish in his entire 24-fight UFC run. Two 1st round TKO losses in the last 12 months also suggests that he might now have reached the stage in his career where durability has become an issue.
The 33-year-old Park is a solidly capably all-rounder who has put together a 7-3 record in the UFC. Park pushes the pace on the feet with active offense, will look for opportunities to land counters and has shown off a good chin too. As times has gone on he’s ramped up his use of his persistent wrestling and grappling games, which has worked out quite well for him, and indeed his last three wins all came courtesy of sinking in rear-naked choke submissions.
I think we are at that stage where the effectiveness of Tavares steady but unremarkable striking is starting to erode due to his declining speed, reactions and durability, and I think a hard-headed, hard-working Park will be able to find success taking the fight to his opponent and making the most of his full skill-set to earn a decision win.
Pick: Jun-Yong Park wins by decision.
Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani earned a split-decision win last time out after a move back down to welterweight that ended a run of three losses in a row. Next up he fights Jared Gooden, who has gone 1-1 since making a return to the UFC.
Weight cutting issues became a problem for Njokuani at welterweight in the past, which is not unsurprising given that he stands 6ft 3″ tall with an 80″ reach. Now 35-years-old it can’t be any easier for him, but he did make the limit last time out, and that certainly gives him a size advantage in most fights. Njokuani is a powerful, explosive striker whose muay thai ability has led to his punches, kicks, knees and elbows all being responsible for ending fights over the years. That threat remains whether at long or close range and also continues into the later rounds. He’s also not too bad on the mat either for a striker and he’s got a solid record when fights go the distance, having only lost twice out of 10 times he’s gone to the scorecards. With all that being said, Njokuani’s durability has come under question lately with two of his last three losses coming by way of TKO.
Like Njokuani, the 30-year-old Gooden is also a big man for the division who struggled to make weight last time out and has had stints up at 185lbs in the past. He has a thick, muscular build, but will be at a 3″ height and reach disadvantage here. His first run in the UFC came in 2020-2021 but didn’t go well, going just 1-3 and the jury is still out on whether he can improve on that this time around. His striking leans on his physicality as he’ll march forward with heavy-handed striking, but he’s not the best defensively. He is also a capable grappler though who has picked up a number of submission wins over the years, most notably over BJJ player Wellington Turman in his last fight.
Gooden won’t have a size advantage to work with in this fight and he’s also going to find himself at a skill and speed disparity in the striking department against the slicker, more technical Njokuani. I think Njokuani can also ensure this fight is kept upright and compete well in the clinch, leading him to a third round TKO finish.
Pick: Chidi Njokuani wins by TKO in Rd3.
Grant Dawson vs. Rafa García
Grant Dawson went on a 9-0 run after joining the UFC before being KO’d by Bobby Green a year ago. He’s since got back on track with another win under his belt and now fights Rafa Garcia, who is 4-1 in his last UFC fights.
The 30-year-old Dawson has a strong wrestling game and will utilize that to bring his skilled grappling game into play. He has good cardio, takes the back reliably and well over half of his career victories have came via submission, leaning mostly towards his trusty rear-naked choke. He can also just opt to control opponents though and has even managed to get the better of Olympic wrestling gold medalist Mark Madsen amongst others doing that. His striking game is less noteworthy, but it’s decent enough to compete and he’s quite durable.
A former Combate Americas champion, the 30-year-old Garcia entered the UFC with an undefeated record, but lost his first couple of fights in the Octagon. He’s since mostly got back to winning ways and beat grizzled veteran Clay Guida in his last fight, though that was over 18 months ago. He’s somewhat similar to Dawson in that he can operate on the feet and can take a punch, but he’s certainly more skilled and dangerous on the mat, holding just a solitary win via strikes in his entire career. He’s not as good of a wrestler as Dawson, who also holds a 3″ height and 2″ reach advantage over him, but he is an effective grappler who has finished 8 of his 15 career wins via submission.
This is Garcia’s toughest test to date and I think it’ll confirm that Dawson is just a better all-round fighter, particular with regards to his wrestling, enabling him to control the action for extended periods and threaten with submissions, before emerging with a decision victory.
Pick: Grant Dawson wins by decision.
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono
Three losses in a row makes this fight a must-win for Daniel Rodriguez as he locks horns with Alex Morono, who has experienced inconsistent form of late, going 3-3.
Just a couple of years ago Rodriguez was on a 7-1 run that had him steadily rising up the welterweight ranks, but now as he closes in on his 38th birthday he finds himself in a much different position. D-Rod has never had a skill-set that particularly stands out from the crowd, but he’s been steadily dependable with his solid boxing ability and toughness, pressing the action while working behind the jab and landing combos upstairs and to the body at times. His volume and consistent work-rate is important as he delivers damage more on a cumulative basis over the course of a fight rather than via one single strike. Rodriguez recent fights have been disappointing, but it feels like this fight more than the others on his three-fight losing streak might give a clearer idea of whether he’s just going through a bad patch due to some challenging match-ups, or is now starting to fade.
At 34, Morono isn’t as far down the track as Rodriguez, but he too finds himself at a place where his performances are coming under closer scrutiny. He’s never been the most athletic fighter to be fair even in his prime, but he has been a fairly solid, sturdy striker who will press forward into close range with punches and kicks. He has respectable enough power, but it’s not proven to be of the fight-finishing variety in the UFC as only two of his 13 victory for the promotion have come by strikes. He’s starting to not take a punch as well as he used to and the fact he’s become slower and more hittable may be contributing to that. However, he still remains a competent grappler too and will look for submissions if taken down, but he’s been more likely to end up going to the scorecards during his UFC run.
So both of these fighters will be hoping for a good performance here to silence those who have been questioning whether they are declining, and even though he’s the older of the two I think it may be Rodriguez who proves to have more left in the tank as he outstrikes Morono over three rounds to win by decision.
Pick: Daniel Rodriguez wins by decision.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan and Josh Fremd are both in need of a win on Saturday night, with Alhassan having gone 2-5 (+1nc) over the past few years, while Fremd is 2-4 in his UFC run.
Alhassan turned 39-years-old in August, so long since past his prime, but to fair to him he’s still a dangerous man when he goes on the attack. He’s an explosive striker who generates a lot of power in his punches, while he’s also still capable of firing of fast kicks too, and the results can be devastating, with all 12 of his career wins coming via strikes. Despite Alhassan’s background in judo that’s an attribute that’s rarely seen, but he will wrestle at times. Alhassan’s cardio is a major weak point that can soon take a toll on him if his early striking exploits don’t pay off, and while he’s hard to finish, he’s yet to win a fight that goes to a decision.
The 30-year-old Fremd is a towering middleweight who at 6ft 4″ will give him an extra 6″ over Alhassan, while also having 3″ more in reach too. He lacks athleticism, but makes the most of that physical frame, durability and respectable cardio to impose himself on his opponent with constant pressure and a variety of solid striking, grinding clinch-work and a submission threat on the mat.
If Fremd can survive to the second half of this fight then the odds swing firmly in his favor, but even though he’s coming to the closing stages of his career Alhassan is still the faster, more dangerous striker here early in the fight, and with Fremd not being the most mobile target I think he’ll be able to deliver a TKO victory here in the first five minutes.
Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
C.J. Vergara vs. Ramazan Temirov
Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price
Chris Barnett vs. Junior Tafa
Daniel Argueta vs. Cody Haddon
Julia Polastri vs. Cory McKenna
Clayton Carpenter vs. Lucas Rocha
