UFC Fight Night 245 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
Anthony Hernandez has put together a five-fight winning run that’s taken him to No.13 in the middleweight rankings and now he’ll fight the 14th placed Michel Pereira, who has gone on an eight-fight winning streak, with five of those coming at welterweight.
A day after his 31st birthday Hernandez will be looking to make life uncomfortable for Pereira wherever the fight goes with his high-paced style. He’ll employ an active striking style together with possessing good durability, but really he’s looking to find openings to get the fight to the mat, where he can use his scrambling ability and wily submission game to seek out a finish. And he’s had good success with that over the years, with 8 of his 12 wins coming via submission, including three during his latest unbeaten stretch.
Pereira also turned 31 this month and in recent years his style has matured a lot from earlier in his career when he was known for being one of the most acrobatic, creative and dynamic strikers in the game. That meant he was always exciting to watch, whether he was going for flying knees, spinning kicks, propelling himself off the cage to deliver punches and kicks or doing backward flips into guard. That level of showmanship made for some great additions to his highlight reel, but at the UFC level it became harder than ever to make that style work, and more often than not just sapped his cardio. Credit to Pereira then for defying expectations by successfully reworking his gameplan to become less flashy and more efficient and effective on the feet, which in turn helped his cardio. And on top of that he also been showing off a surprisingly solid wrestling game to go along with his capable grappling, and the results speak for themselves across two divisions.
It’s hard not to be impressed with how Pereira has been performing of late, and there could well be more to come. That being said, this will be his toughest test at 185lbs so far and I do still have some question marks how his discipline and cardio will hold out in his first five-round fight against an opponent who will push a hard pace. Hernandez has a knack for surviving early onslaughts and then punishing his opponents later in fights as they begin to wilt, and I’ll say that happens again here as he locks in a fourth round submission finish.
Pick: Anthony Hernandez wins by submission in Rd4.
Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips
With just one win in his last five fights Rob Font has a lot of pressure on his shoulders heading into a fight with Kyler Phillips, who on the other hand is on a 4-1 run.
At 37-years-old Font is a seasoned UFC veteran and it’s worth noting that his recent poor run of form doesn’t look quite so bad when you consider his losses came against Jose Aldo, Marlon Vera and Deiveson Figueiredo, who all had to go to the scorecards to beat him. In fact in the entirety of his 28-fight career he’s only ever been finished once, with that being by submission back in 2017. So he’s far from a pushover and remains a good striker with a focus on boxing fundamentals and in particular his assured jab, showing respectable power and good speed too. He’s also able to wrestle offensively, but is susceptible to being taken down at times. He’s comfortable on the mat though and is hard to finish.
At 29-years-old Phillips is in his prime years, and it still feels like there’s still room for him to continue to develop. He’s always been able to leverage his athleticism to his advantage, making the most of his speed and quick feet to enhance his active offense. That also allows him to move swiftly into range for good takedown attempts and he’s proven to be a solidly capable grappler, albeit with only two submission finishes to show for it so far.
I wouldn’t put it past a savvy veteran like Font to emerge victorious here, but I think at this stage in his career Phillips speed, physicality and wrestling will serve him well on his way to a decision win.
Pick: Kyler Phillips wins by decision.
Charles Johnson vs. Su Mudaerji
It’s an interesting coincidence that both fighters here currently hold identical 16-6 records in their careers to date, but their current form varies significantly, with Charles Johnson coming in off a trio of wins, while Su Mudaerji has suffered back-to-back defeats via submission.
The 33-year-old Johnson is a big flyweight at 5ft 9″, but so is Mudaerji, meaning he’ll only have an extra inch in height here and will be giving up 2″ in reach. Johnson comes from a track and field background and as such has speed on his side and good cardio too. He’s durable too, has good takedown defense, and despite some patchy runs of form during his career. Johnson is also a capable wrestler and might fancy his chances of getting Mudaerji down, though he might consider that a plan-B if thing aren’t going his way on the feet.
The 28-year-old Mudaerji is a striker with a strong finishing record, having stopped 13 of his 16 career wins via strikes. A lot of those wins came via a questionable level of opposition on the Chinese regional scene though. Nevertheless, he’s certainly a dynamic striker with fast, accurate punches and a good kicking game. Even at a regional level Mudaerji’s takedown defense had been poor though and his submission defense has been a weak point, and that’s been exploited in the UFC, leading to three losses.
When Mudaerji has had success it’s often been in fights he’s been able to finish sooner rather than later. He’ll not have a size advantage here though and I think Johnson is durable enough to push this into being either an extended strike battle, or may well find that taking Mudaerji down proves to be the better option as the fight goes on, leading him to a decision victory.
Pick: Charles Johnson wins by decision.
Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda
Elkins is 2-2 in his last four fights as he now gets ready to face Daniel Pineda, who has lost in his last two Octagon appearances.
The 40-year-old Elkins is well known for his wars of attrition, absorbing a lot of punishment as he attempts to outlast opponents in gruelling and often bloody battles. It’s to his credit that ‘The Damage’ is somehow still managing to make that work for him at times this late into his career, but he’s fighting less frequently these days and doesn’t absorb blows as well as he used to. He’s still a gutsy fighter though who can make good use of his wrestling to wear on his opponents and can go for submissions as well as defend against them too.
The 39-year-old Pineda is also a grizzled veteran as he draws closer to the 50 fight mark in his career. During that time he’s actually had two runs in the UFC, with the first over a decade ago seeing him go 3-4, while he’s now returned late in his career with a 2-3 (+1nc) run so far. There’s no doubting Pineda’s finishing credentials here as whether it’s in the UFC or beyond he’s finished every single one of his wins inside the distance. He’s an aggressive striker who throws with power, but he’s a capable wrestler too and it’s actually his submission skills that account for 19 of his 28 wins.
Needless to say both fighters have seen better days at this stage in their long fighting careers, but they’ll both still give their all in the heat of the battle. I think Pineda is a little less battle-worn though and he’s certainly the more dangerous striker here, while he can also cause problems on the mat too. The danger for him though is that he’s never won on the scorecards, and Elkins will be doing his best to outlast him. I think Pineda troubles his weakening chin too many times for that though, leading him to a 2nd round TKO win.
Pick: Daniel Pineda wins by TKO In Rd2.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev
Matheus Nicolau has suffered two KO losses in a row and will now attempt to regroup against Asu Almabayev, who is 3-0 in the UFC so far.
Back-to-back KO defeats is never a good sign, and Nicolau will no doubt also get flashbacks to the fact that his first run in the UFC a few years ago ended with a head kick KO loss as well. There are posives for Nicolau to cling onto though as he was actually in good form on a four-fight winning streak just two years ago. At his best Nicolau has proven to be an assured counter-striker with speed and accuracy when he attacks, though can be overly patient at times. Meanwhile, Nicolau also has stout takedown defense and is a capable grappler too.
The 30-year-old Almabayev probably isn’t going to be too focused on Nicolau’s recent KO losses as though he is able to strike he is much more focused on beating opponents by using his fast and unrelenting wrestling game to repeatedly take his opponents to the mat. And from there he has been adept at working to the back and will hunt for submission finishes. He has a good overall record of 20-2, but this is a clear step-up in competition for him.
Nicolau will perhaps fancy his chances of using his takedown defense to keep this one standing, but I think Almabayev’s commitment to working for continual takedowns will make it hard for the striker to get his game going, leading Asu to a decision victory.
Pick: Asu Almabayev wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto
Joselyne Edwards vs. Tamires Vidal
Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed
Melissa Martinez vs. Alice Ardelean
Austen Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne
