UFC 308 takes place tomorrow in Abu Dhabi and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
Ilia Topuria seized the featherweight crown by KO’ing former divisional kingpin Alexander Volkanovski earlier this year and now faces another legendary 145lb’er in ex-champ Max Holloway, who heads into this fight as the symbolic ‘BMF’ titleholder after KO’ing Justin Gaethje last time out.
The 27-year-old Topuria has marked himself out as a special talent in his 7-0 run so far that’s seen him KO four of his opponents and submit another. Topuria is a fighter who exudes confidence and it’s not hard to see why as he’s a very well-rounded fighter with no obvious weaknesses. Clearly his knockout power is a major asset, but he’s also fast and technically skilled, which together with doing a good job of reading his opponents enables him to land the right strike at the right time. It’s worth stressing however that Topuria’s ground game is also very good, having the wrestling ability to get the fight to the mat and then the grappling credentials to find finishes on the mat. In fact, seven of his eight wins on the regional circuit before joining the UFC came via submission, and all but one of those came in the opening round.
The 32-year-old Holloway is one of the all-time greats at 145lbs and is also considered to be one of the sports top strikers too. It’s his slick boxing ability in particular that shines through as he does a great job of varying up his very high-volume, accurate offense to the head and body, while also having great footwork, distance management and one of the best chins in the game. Despite having won his last two fights by KO, Holloway isn’t as heavy-handed as Topuria, but his striking numbers takes it’s toll over time and he has the cardio to keep that going for the full 5 rounds. Holloway is also known to have excellent takedown defense and will be eager to use that if necessary to avoid going to the mat with the champion.
This is a fantastic match-up and it’ll be fascinating to see how it plays out. Only Volkanovski has managed to beat Holloway at 145lbs in the past 11 years, and having just got the better of a notorious knockout artist in Justin Gaethje up at 155lbs last time out he’ll not be overawed by Topuria’s punching power. If he’s to win it’s likely going to be by outlanding the champ over the course of the full 25 minute encounter, and he’s certainly capable of that. Topuria is a rare breed though as he’s able to blend power with precision and picks his moments to strike well, and he’s a major threat on the mat too. He might struggle to get Holloway down by conventional methods, but I can see Topuria eventually timing a big punch to drop him and then capitalizing on that on the canvas with either strikes or submission to seal a third round victory.
Pick: Ilia Topuria wins by TKO in Rd3.
Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker has already racked up two wins in 2024 so far as he looks to push back towards another title shot. Next he’ll head into a re-booked fight against the still unbeaten Khamzat Chimaev, whose majority decision victory over Kamaru Usman a year ago took his UFC record to 7-0.
At 33-years-old Whittaker has just about seen it all at middleweight over the past decade, with only former divisional king Israel Adesanya and current champ Dricus du Plessis having got the better of him during that time. Whittaker’s well-honed boxing ability is at the root of his success, making effective use of the jab, working combinations well off that with good speed and respectable power, and possessing a crafty head kick that can play in behind his punches to catch opponents out. Whittaker is also light on his feet and maintains his range well, while he’s also a solid wrestler, particularly defensively and has good durability.
When the 30-year-old Chimaev first burst onto the UFC he made an immediate impact by running through three opponents in the space of two months. Despite garnering a reputation for fighting anybody at any time off the back of that, the reality several years later is very different as due to ill-health in particular, Khamzat has had long spells of inactivity and will be fighting for the first time in 12 months on Saturday. And it’s still unclear why exactly he did have to be hospitalized several times during that period, eventually leading to his initial fight with Whittaker in June being cancelled on short notice. That leaves some doubt as to what sort of condition Khamzat will be in this weekend, but what’s not in question is his fighting ability. He remains a formidable force as a wrestler who has repeatedly shown his ability to manhandle opponents to the mat and dominate them there either with mauling ground-and-pound or assured submissions. Meanwhile his striking is perhaps not as dominant, but it’s still very competent and he has big power.
At one stage it looked like Chimaev was an unstoppable force of nature, but he has since had a challenging fight against Gilbert Burns down at 170lbs and also only narrowly edged by Kamaru Usman on the scorecards in his last fight. And it’s possible his health struggles in recent years have taken a toll on him as much as his Octagon battles. So Whittaker has a real chance here, particularly if he manages to keep this one one the feet and can take Chimaev out to deep waters in what’s set to be a five-round co-main event. It’s tough to continually stop a determined wrestler from getting the fight to the mat though, particularly one of Khamzat’s calibre in those early rounds, and on the mat I do think he will be able to find success, eventually leading him to a third round submission win.
Pick: Khamzat Chimaev wins by submission in Rd3.
Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige
Lerone Murphy wields an undefeated 14-0-1 record including a 7-0 stint in the UFC as he now attempts to add to that against Dan Ige, who holds a 10-7 UFC record and has gone 1-2 in his last few fights.
At 33-years-old Murphy is still a very good athlete and it feels like he’s continuing to improve upon his skill-set too. A win on the scorecards against Edson Barboza last time added credibility to his considerable striking ability heading into this one. Murphy’s boxing is clean, swift and technical and is bolstered by solid kicks as well as well-timed knees when his opponents try to close the distance. He’ll also seek out takedown attempts at times, and while he’s yet to notch up a submission win he does have good ground-and-pound.
Ige is the same age as Murphy, but has been competing in the UFC for longer and feels like he has significantly more miles on the clock. He’s still hungry to fight though as he proved last time out when he accepted a fight with Diego Lopes up at a 165lb catch-weight at UFC 303 on just a few hours notice. That was an unprecedented situation and to his credit he gave a respectable account of himself before losing by decision. Ige is a durable, compact boxer who does his best work at close range with ripping combo’s to the head and body, though he can work in kicks too. Like his opponent, Ige can seek out takedowns and he does pose more of a submission threat. In 26 career fights Ige has still yet to be finished by either strikes or submission.
Though they are both the same age I think Murphy has the feeling of a fighter who is still in his prime and has yet to hit his ceiling in the UFC, and so with his athletic advantage I feel he’ll be to make use of his speed and footwork to win the striking battle from range to emerge with a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Lerone Murphy wins by decision
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakić
Unbeaten in 12 UFC fights, Magomed Ankalaev still hasn’t done enough in the eyes of the UFC brass to get another light-heavyweight title shot, and so he’ll now have to fight Aleksander Rakic instead, who is coming off two losses.
The 32-year-old Ankalaev fought Jan Blachowicz for the vacant title back in 2022, but the fairly tepid fight ended in a split-draw decision that left the belt still up-for-grabs, and the powers-at-be were left so uninspired by what had transpired that both fighters were left frozen out of the title picture afterwards. Ankalaev’s case wasn’t helped by the fact that his next fight against Johnny Walker ended in a no-contest due to an illegal knee, but he has since got back on track by KO’ing him in the rematch at the start of this year. Ankalaev certainly has the all-round skill-set to be considered a credible title challenger. He’s a very composed kickboxer with power in both his kicks and punches who prefers to operate patiently at range with good counter-striking ability and a solid defense. Ankalaev is also a very competent wrestler who times his takedowns well and has solid control on top, but he does lack a submission threat.
Not only is Rakic also 32, but he is also similar in various other respects to Ankalaev. He also prefers to take his time and work kickboxing from range, but he has shown in the past that he’s capable of being dynamic and dangerous when he does go on the offensive. He’s adapted a more cautious approach over time though and is actually willing to make use of his wrestling to help grind out a win. Rakic has only had four fights in the past five years and coming off back-to-back TKO losses confidence and durability will be potential concerns for him.
Given their similar styles this one might be a bit of a stalemate that could go either way, but overall I do feel that Ankalaev is the more calculated fighter with better counter-striking and more confidence, which will help him to edge out a decision win here.
Pick: Magomed Ankalaev wins by decision.
Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan
Shara Magomedov has racked up a trio of wins since arriving in the UFC to go 14-0 overall and now fights Armen Petrosyan, who has gone 3-2 in the UFC so far.
A distinctive figure with his mass of red hair and eye defect, the 30-year-old Magomedov is also just as eye-catching with his dynamic, creative striking as he’ll constantly look to go on the attack with his varied arsenal of offensive options. Fast kicks to all levels and solid punches are to be expected, but it’s actually his knee strikes that could be his more potent weapon as weather aimed at the head or body they have been responsible for 5 of his 11 finishes to date. Despite hailing from Dagestan, Magomedov is surprisingly limited in the wrestling department, though there’s signs he is making improvements in that regard, and he’ll have to if he wants to keep his winning run intact as his level of UFC opposition increases.
For now though Magomedov has been given an opponent who also prefers to strike in the 33-year-old Petrosyan. A proficient kickboxer, he’s certainly less flashy than his opponent, but does a good job of delivering solid fundamentals and has a good kicking game. Petrosyan was a notable finisher during his 6-1 run on the regional circuit, but though he did win via a head kick KO on the Contender Series he’s yet to find a finish in his five-fight UFC run.
The 33-year-old Petrosyan is also a striker who doesn’t have much of a ground game and so will be happy to keep the fight standing though. He comes from a pro-kickboxing background, though it should be stressed he’s not the star of that sport who shares his name. He’s skilled in his own right though with a solid kicking game to all levels, good output and respectable finishing record.
It’s quite possible that Petrosyan could manage to get the better of the striking action here just by doggedly sticking to the more tried-and-tested kickboxing basics. That being said, I do think Magomedov’s constant activity, speed and more versatile offensive options will make more of an impression on the judges and lead him to victory.
Pick: Shara Magomedov wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Mateusz Rębecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Daniel Santos
Abusupiyan Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira
Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo
Ismail Naurdiev vs. Bruno Silva
Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueira
