UFC On ABC 8 takes place tomorrow in Azerbaijan, and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Jamahal Hill’s attempt to win back the light-heavyweight title last year ended in a knockout loss to Alex Pereira, followed early this year by a TKO defeat against Jiri Prochazka. Hill will now attempt to steady the ship when he fights Khalil Rountree Jr, whose five-fight winning run was also halted by Pereira via TKO.
The 34-year-old Hill is a tall, rangey striker who will have a 3″ height and 2.5″ reach advantage here. He has good speed, finishing power and varies up his high-volume attacks with a diverse range of strikes. He doesn’t have the most tactical approach though, so his offense can feel more spur-of-the-moment rather than carefully planned, and that can leave him exposed defensively at times. And durability has now become a concern as he heads into his mid-30’s after being finished twice in the space of a year. Meanwhile, Hill’s ground game isn’t particularly well developed and he’s never won by submission, but he is still more comfortable there than Rountree.
The 35-year-old Rountree Jr is a physically powerful, muscular light-heavyweight with sound muay thai technique. He has finishing power in his hands, but also punishes opponents with his debilitating kicks to the legs and body too, and has ended fights with that. Despite that explosive firepower, Rountree doesn’t go all-out looking for an early finish and instead looks to pace himself, picking his moments to strike and showing a willingness to work on the counter. That being said, he did demonstrate a new-found tough, gritty and battling side to his game last time out against Pereira, and though he took a beating in the end, he still won a lot of plaudits for how he performed against the deadly striker.
Both fighters have the striking arsenal to finish each other here, and given that both have experienced tough losses lately it’s perhaps even more likely that a stoppage will be the likely outcome here – though there’s always the chance that it could make them fight more cautiously. However, Rountree seemed to gain confidence even in defeat against Pereira, and given that his striking style is a bit more compact and methodical I think he could find a route to a 2nd round TKO finish here.
Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr wins by TKO in Rd2.
Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Rafael Fiziev finds himself in the unusual position of having to bounce back from three losses in a row when he fights Ignacio Bahamondes, who by way of contrast is on a three-fight winning streak after submitting Jalin Turner last time out.
The 32-year-old fiziev’s recent losses came via two decision losses to Justin Gaethje sandwiched between a loss to Mateusz Gamrot resulting from tearing his ACL, resulting in a lengthy layoff. So it’s not been a good time for him after having been on a six-fight winning streak beforehand, but given the quality of opposition this isn’t the kind of slump that suggests he’s gone off the boil. The athletic Fiziev remains a high-level muay thai technician who honed his skills while competing in that discipline over in Bangkok years ago and it shows as he has a razor-sharp, dynamic kicking game that’s accentuated by his natural speed and agility, while his punches are on-point too. Fiziev is also mindful to keep a high-guard defense too and has proven to be adept at fending off takedowns thanks to his excellent balance, while he’s also shown off some wrestling at times. His high-energy, fast-twitch style can start to take a toll on his cardio in the later stages of his fights though>
The 27-year-old Bahamondes is unusually big for a lightweight and as such will enjoy a 7″ height and 4″ reach advantage on Saturday night. Despite that, Bahamondes isn’t the kind of fighter whose just happy to strike from distance as he likes to apply pressure and is willing to trade at closer quarters with his high-volume kickboxing. He has good power and has a versatile kicking game that’s led to some highlight-reel finishes in the UFC, and he is good at mixing in knee strikes too. Bahamondes like to continually push the pace and can present a threat on the mat too via submission.
Bahamondes has the size advantage here as well as being younger and having less wear-and-tear, but I do think that in terms of technique, speed and experience Fiziev still has the edge here, and representing Azerbaijan will ensure the home crowd is behind him, so I think he’ll do enough here to get the nod on the scorecards after anjoyable back-and-forth fight.
Pick: Rafael Fiziev wins by decision.
Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Tofiq Musayev previously fought for both Rizin and Bellator and now makes his UFC debut on home soil against Myktybek Oralbai, who won his first two fights in the promotion before coming out on the wrong-end of a split-decision verdict last time out.
Musayev really put himself on the MMA map in 2019 when he won Rizin’s lightweight grand-prix after beating Patricky Pitbull in the final. However, he’s only fought a handful of times since, and he’s been inactive since registering back-to-back knockout wins in Rizin in 2023. Now 35-years-old, Musayev has made it to the UFC quite late, but just in time to feature in the promotion’s first ever event in his native Azerbaijan. Musayev is a striker with good technique and volume along with proven power, having developed a reputation as a finisher with 18 of his 22 wins coming via either KO or TKO. He is able to grapple to an extent if required too, and there’s no real shame in having been submitted by BJJ wizard Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza back in 2021.
The 27-year-old Oralbai was first picked up from the LFA promotion to serve as a late-replacement against Uros Medic a couple of years ago and proved himself worthy of sticking around by managing to submit him in the 2nd round. Oralbai is well-rounded and is particularly good on the mat with his good wrestling and assured grappling. He can also strike too though with capable boxing and solid power, and between strikes and submissions he’s been able to find finishes in 13 of his 15 career wins so far, while never having been stopped himself before the final bell.
This should be competitive, but with Musayev now being past his prime and having been inactive lately I think the younger Oralbai’s better ground game will enable him to gradually take control on the mat, leading him to a second round finish.
Musayev has the home advantage here, but there’s a risk or ring-rust here, and meanwhile Oralbai is eight-years younger and will have the advantage on the mat with his wrestling and grappling, so I’m taking him to win by 2nd round submission here.
Pick: Myktybek Orolbai wins by submission in Rd2.
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Curtis Blaydes attempt to win the interim heavyweight title last year was foiled by Tom Aspinall who KO’d him in 60 seconds. Now he switches gears to take on the debuting Rzivan Kuniev, who arrives from the Contender Series with a 12-2-1 (+1nc) career record.
This is quite a step down in competition for the No.5 ranked Blaydes given that Kuniev is an unranked newcomer. The 34-year-old has a constantly presence in the upper reaches of the heavyweight ranks for much of his UFC career thanks to a solid all-round skill-set that stands out from the crowd in regards to his strong wrestling ability in particular, which allows him to secure takedowns, control opponents on the mat and serve up some hard-hitting ground-and-pound. Meanwhile, on the feet he’s a patient striker with respectable boxing fundamentals, though despite being a big heavyweight he’s not an especially hard-hitting or aggressive with his offense. It’s a set of skills that has helped win far more fights than he’s lost in the UFC, but he has had a habit of coming unstuck at times against notable power-punchers, having now been stopped via strikes five times in the Octagon. And part of that is done to being vulnerable when he looks to close the gap while transitioning from his distance striking to takedowns.
The 33-year-old Kuniev’s career got off to a less than stellar start, but since 2017 he’s slowly put together an 11-fight unbeaten run, including two stoppage wins on the Contender Series to earn his spot in the UFC. Kuniev comes from Dagestan, but despite the expectation that he’ll be a wrestler, he is actually more of a striker instead. Kuniev has solid boxing ability, respectable power and will look for kicks and knees too, but in general his output is on the low side. Kuniev does also work well from the clinch and can seek out the occasional takedown opportunity.
Kuniev is a capable heavyweight, but this feels like too much too soon for him and I’d expect Blaydes to avoid any potential banana-skin by make full use of his wrestling early to shut down Kuniev and set up a second round ground-and-pound finish.
Pick: Curtis Blaydes wins by TKO In Rd2.
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta
Nazim Sadykhov broke through from the Contender Series in 2022 and has since gone on to secure three wins and a draw. Now he’ll go up against Nikolas Motta, who is 3-2 (+1nc) in the promotion.
The 31-year-old Sadykhov claimed a TKO victory over Ismael Bonfim last time out, but it was a controversial stoppage due to a doctor deeming his opponent unable to continue after a nasty cut below his eye. In all fairness Sadykhov did land a nice head kick to deliver that damage, but Bonfim had fought through it until the plug was pulled on the fight. An assured technical striker with good footwork, Sadykhov has clocked up seven stoppage wins via strikes from 10 career wins to date. In general he’s accustomed to his fights finishing before the final bell as he also has a couple of submission finishes on his record, including a rear-naked choke stoppage of Terrence McKinney a couple of years ago, but he did have to settle for a draw against tough veteran Viasheslav Borschev that same year.
The 32-year-old Motta is known for being an aggressive, heavy-handed striker who is always looking to find a kill-shot. 10 of his 15 career victories coming via strikes proves that he is more than capable of implementing that game-plan effectively, including two 1st round stoppage since arriving the Octagon. However, that one-dimensional approach, together with unconvincing defense and suspect durability has seen him finished via strikes in four of his five career defeats.
While Motta always has a punchers chance I feel that Sadykhov is the better fighter both on the feet and on the mat here, and I feel he’ll have what it takes to exploit openings presented by Motta’s more reckless approach to deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Nazim Sadykhov wins by TKO in Rd2.
Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad
Muhamad Naimov has only lost once in his five UFC appearances so far and is now ready to take on former Contender Series fighter Bogdan Grad, who has gone 4-0 in the promotion so far.
The 30-year-old Naimov initially started out competing in Taekwondo, but he’s got much more of an MMA-orientated style these days. He does like his kicks though and will vary his attacks, while also mixing in the occasional spinning technique. That being said, he’s also comfortable working on the counter too, though he can rely too much on having a good chin at times from a defensive perspective. Naimov is well-rounded, so he’s also comfortable utilizing his wrestling, and though he was submitted for the first time last year he is a capable grappler too.
The 29-year-old Grad likes to press the action from the start and has an aggressive striking style that’ll see him throwing everything into his strikes, which can lead to him overcommitting and not using the cleanest technique. As such he is quite hittable, but he is certainly dangerous offensively and he will also throw in things like jumping knees and spinning attacks to keep his opponents on edge. Grad can also wrestle, and while he’s more likely to finish via strikes, he does have a few submission wins on his record.
Both fighters can stay competitive here wherever the action goes, but I feel that Naimov will be the more clinical striker of the two and will also cope well enough in the wrestling department, though he might need to dig deep in the final five minutes as Grad’s pace starts to wear him down in on order to earn a decision victory.
Pick: Muhammad Naimov wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum
Ismail Naurdiev vs. Park Jun-yong
Melissa Mullins vs. Daria Zheleznyakova
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Mohammed Usman
Ko Seok-hyun vs. Oban Elliott
Irina Alekseeva vs. Klaudia Syguła
