UFC 190 takes place tomorrow night in Brazil and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
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Main Card:
Ronda Rousey vs. Bethe Correia
Correia has talked a good fight so far, but can she back it up in the Octagon? Probably not. Correia is an offensive striker who could pose Rousey some problems if she is able to keep the fight standing as despite improvements in her offensive boxing the champions defense lets her down and means she gets hit often which tends to throw her off that nice, crisp striking we see when she’s hitting the pads.
Unfortunately for Correia, once Rousey gets hit she often instinctively switches into her world class judo game and that means a quick trip to the mat for whoever her opponent happens to be. The fact that Correia is an aggressive striker will only play into Rousey’s hands as that forward momentum will set her up for a picture perfect throw and the inevitable armbar submission that’s sure to follow.
Correia may well be aware of this and it’s possible she’ll adopt a more cautious gameplan and try to keep Rousey at bay by attempting to outstrike her from range. The problem is that doesn’t really suit Correia’s style and even she can curb her natural instincts her movement would let her down.
Essentially Correia has a punchers chance, but without the raw knockout power to back that up her odds off winning are extremely narrow. It’ll be interesting to see if Rousey does look to stretch this fight out longer than she needs to as she appeared to in her second fight with Miesha Tate, but the obvious pick here as ever is Rousey by first round armbar.
Ronda Rousey by submission in Rd1.
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Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Mauricio Rua
At this stage in their careers Nogueira and Shogun definitely fit firmly into the ‘grizzled veteran’ category with both having suffered a lot of wear and tear since their first meeting 10 years ago which has left them appearing to no longer be the fighters they once were.
Rua’s recent record looks worse than Nogueira’s, but that could partly be due to ‘Lil Nog’ having spent much of the past three years out injured. Shogun’s chin has definitely deteriorated badly now after so many wars over the years though, but on the other hand he is the more dangerous and effective striker of the two and Nogueira’s age and lack of fights lately suggest ring rust could also be an issue for him.
Meanwhile both men are talented enough on the mat that it’s hard to see either one having a real advantage there, so I suspect this one will most likely be decided on the feet, and despite big concerns over his durability I think ‘Shogun’ should have the edge in that regard.
Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua to win by TKO in Rd2.
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Fernando Bruno vs. Glaico Franca
One of two TUF Brazil 4 finals that have been shoe-horned onto the UFC 190 pay-per-view. Both of these lightweight fighters have plenty of experience, though not on the big stage like this.
It should be a fairly close fight with Bruno and Franco both possessing a good submission game, but Franco has more to offer on the feet and I think overall he’ll be able to edge out a decision win here.
Glaico Franco to win by decision.
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Dileno Lopes vs. Reginaldo Vieira
The other TUF Brazil final on the card takes place in the bantamweight division. Vieira actually lost in the opening round of the show, but got back on later and made the most of his opportunity to reach the final.
Again we see two talented ground fighters on display here, but Lopes looks to be the slicker of the two on the mat, can mix it up on the feet if required and generally is the better prospect so look for him to emerge with his hand raised here.
Dileno Lopes to win by decision.
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Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Stefan Struve
Nogueira has suffered even more deterioration than his brother over the years which is saying something, though to be fair, despite being 12 years younger Struve has a questionable chin himself, not to mention his troubles with a heart condition not that so long ago.
Still, physically Struve should be the fresher fighter here and his size and reach advantage should give him an edge here. That being said he’s never really taken full advantage of it and often fails to firmly establish his range and gets careless which means he’s hit more often than he should.
I think he’ll find Nogueira an easier opponent than most to keep at bay though as at this stage in his career the Brazilian’s has very labored movement and lacks the speed and versatility in his offense to catch him by surprise. A decision win could be on the cards, but given how fragile Nogueira is these days I’ll go for a TKO stoppage.
Stefan Struve to win by TKO in Rd2.
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Soa Palelei vs. Antonio Silva
Speaking of fragile Brazilian veterans, ‘Bigfoot’ Silva is right up there amongst them and alarmingly already has two first round KO losses on his record in the past 11 months.
That suggests his chin has packed it’s bags and gone elsewhere which doesn’t bode well for him against Palelei who’s got the size and power to send him for a nap on the canvas at a moment’s notice.
Palelei likes to get on top against his opponents, but he’d be wise to avoid that on this occasion as Silva is actually quite capable on the mat and moves well there for a big man. Generally though I believe that post-TRT Silva is pretty much running on empty so while he still has the punching power to cause Palelei problems, I favor his opponent here (though a few years ago it would have been a different pick).
Soa Palelei to win by KO in Rd1.
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Jessica Aguilar vs. Claudia Gadelha
An excellent woman’s strawweight match-up is set to open up the UFC 190 main card in style and should provide us with the next challenger to Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s title. Aguilar makes her UFC debut after previously having been a title holder in both the Invicta FC and WSOF organizations, so make no mistake, she is very much the real deal, though in Gadelha she’s facing another of the division’s toughest fighters.
These are two well-rounded competitors who won’t be out of their element anywhere the fight goes, though I’d say Gadelha has an edge in the striking and perhaps with her BJJ too, while Aguilar is the better wrestler.
It’s a shame one has to lose at this stage as both would make worthy title challengers, but overall I favor the more aggressive, imposing physical presence of Gadelha to prevail and set up a rematch with Jedrzejczyk.
Claudia Gadelha to win by decision.
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Prelims:
(Predicted winners in bold)
Neil Magny vs. Demian Maia
Rafael Cavalcante vs. Patrick Cummins
Warlley Alves vs. Nordine Taleb
Iuri Alcantara vs. Leandro Issa
Clint Hester vs. Vitor Miranda
Guido Cannetti vs. Hugo Viana
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