UFC 312 takes place tomorrow night in Sydney, Australia and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
Dricus du Plessis defeats Sean Strickland via split-decision a year ago to win the middleweight title and has since successfully defended it against Israel Adesanya. Meanwhile, Sean Strickland has gone on to beat Paulo Costa on the scorecards to set up this title rematch with his rival.
At 31-years-old, du Plessis boasts an eight-fight unbeaten streak in the UFC, including six wins inside the distance. His aggressive, pressure-heavy fighting style, coupled with his powerhouse physique, explosive punches and impactful kicks make him a formidable adversary. He also possesses rugged wrestling that did lead to him landing several takedowns against Strickland in their first fight (albeit without much control time on top), and he has a proven ability to find submission finishes. With that being said, du Plessis’ has a habit of leaning more on brute force than finesse, particularly with regards to his striking, which is technically flawed and defensively suspect. DDP is durable and determined though, and while his cardio-sapping style can leave him looking drained at times, he has an uncanny knack for being able to fight on regardless.
The 33-year-old Strickland adopts a more one-dimensional approach, focusing almost exclusively on strong boxing fundamentals and his ‘Philly shell’ defense. His well-honed jab is by far his most used weapon, while he will also utilize teep kicks too. And despite that limited set of tools, they have been refined enough that they can frustrate his opponents and disrupt their momentum. He’s not a hard-hitter, but his toughness and cardio mean that he can wear down opponents as the round go by, and even the likes of Israel Adesanya, Nassourdine Imavov and Paulo Costa in the past couple of years have come off second-best against him as a result. Strickland can also wrestle, but old knee injuries limit his ability to do so these days, and so he prefers to keep the action upright, and indeed even called for DDP to agree to make this a stand-up only fight – a request that was quickly shot down.
I don’t expect to see much in terms of evolution of either fighters game here as they do seem quite set in their ways despite their respective limitations. And while I’d expect Strickland to still be able to find a home for his jab, in the end it’s du Plessis’ more impactful offense, aggression and willingness to utilize his wrestling at times that should help swing the judges in his favor once again.
Pick: Dricus du Plessis wins by decision.
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez
Strawweight champion Zhang Weili is on a four-fight unbeaten run heading into the third title defense of her current reign as she now gets ready to take on the undefeated Tatiana Suarez, whose path to the title has been long and winding due to recurring injury woes over the years.
The 35-year-old Zhang is one of the most complete female fighters ever seen in the octagon, having the ability to fight at a high level wherever the action goes. She is very well conditioned and that enables her to apply pressure at all times, and she’s particularly good at working on the inside with high volume combinations of punches, kicks, knees and elbows. She also has good power for her size and is sturdy too. Zhang transitions well into an increasingly effective wrestling game and she has good control on top, and works for both ground-and-pound and submissions well. Zhang has managed to finish 19 of her 26 career wins inside the distance, with a good mix of stoppages by strikes and submissions, while she’s also only been finshed once herself.
Perhaps only Dominick Cruz can rival the 34-year-old Suarez in terms of being injury-jinxed throughout her career. Even before she arrived in the UFC, Saurez had already had to overcome a battle against thyroid cancer several years earlier that prevented her from competing in wrestling at the Olympics. That skill-set would provide an excellent foundation for her MMA career though, particularly when complimented by a strong grappling game too, and so she’d emerge as a TUF winner in 2016 who many were tipping to become a future champion. Suarez has ran into career-threatening injuries in the years since and at one stage had a three-and-a-half year layoff, yet when she has been able to compete, she’s continued to extend her unbeaten record to 10-0, and now finally gets her title shot.
Suarez’s mental toughness and determination cannot be underestimated, and her physical strength, elite wrestling and assured grappling make her a very challenging opponent for Zhang to deal with. That being said, Suarez is perhaps beyond her prime now, hasn’t fought in 18 months and has never gone beyond the third round before. Neither has she had to face someone of Zhang’s calibre, experience and broad skill-set either. Nevertheless, Suarez is talented enough that I do expect her to have some success here with her wrestling in the early rounds. I just think it might be too much to ask for her to be able to implement that for five rounds against Zhang, who I think will grow into the fight more as the rounds go on, managing to stop takedowns and implement her superior striking to win out on the scorecards.
Pick: Zhang Weili wins by decision.
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
After a rough start to his UFC career, Justin Tafa managed to put together a four-fight unbeaten run by the end of 2023, but then suffered a decision loss in his only fight last year. Now he returns to fight a new recruit from the Contender Series, Tallison Teixiera, who wields a 7-0 record.
The 31-year-old has the look of a bar-room brawler with his stocky, unathletic physique, but though he’s heavy-handed and tends to rely on his chin as his first line of defense, he does also have fairly fast hands, will make use of counter-striking opportunities and can surprise with the occasional head kick too alongside his boxing. His ground game is poor though, but if he find himself on top he will dish out hard-hitting ground-and-pound.
By way of contrast, the 25-year-old Teixeira is a tall and lean heavyweight, which will grant him a whopping 7″ height and 9″ reach advantage here. He’ll put together striking combinations and has good power, with six of his wins coming via strikes. He doesn’t fully utilize his size though as he can be drawn into closer quarters fire-fights and tends to leave his chin exposed, making him too easy to hit. It’s also worth noting that Teixeira has a black belt in BJJ and managed to get an inverted triangle armbar finish in his pro-debut.
Teixera may have some clear advantages here in terms of his age, physicality and wider skill-set, but Tafa is durable, is the heavier-hitter of the two, and once he wades into range I think he’ll have little trouble finding his opponents chin here to deliver a first round KO finish.
Pick: Justin Tafa wins by KO in Rd1.
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Jimmy Crute has taken the last year-and-a-half off after suffering three losses and a draw in his last four fights, but now returns to fight Rodolfo Bellato, who is only just returning to the Octagon himself a year after earning a TKO victory in his debut.
Crute came into the UFC quite early in his career with a raw but respectable set of skills and an aggressive approach that got him off to a good start, with seemingly plenty of room to grow. The anticipated improvements in his game didn’t really materialize as much as was expected over time though and instead his flaws became more exposed, particularly during his current losing slump, which dented his perceived durability with back-to-back defeats by strikes, along with a submission loss. Crute then took time out, claiming that he had “an unhealthy obsession with the sport,” and now returns at 29-years-old hoping to turn things around. Crute does still have relatively solid striking basics, though he has a habit of overcommitting on strikes at times and can leave himself exposed defensively as a result. he’s also willing to work for takedown opportunities and does have a capable offensive grappling game, though it’s less convincing defensively.
Unlike Crute, the 28-year-old Bellato has confidence heading into this fight given that he’s on a four-fight winning run that saw him become an LFA champion, win on the Contender Series via TKO and then win his UFC debut in similar fashion. However, Bellato comes into this fight off the back of a year-long layoff due to a severe kidney infection, and it’s also worth noting he took this fight on four weeks notice. Bellato is big for a light-heavyweight and will have an extra 3″ in reach over Crute. He’s not most the technical striker and is there to be hit, but he applies good pressure, delivers powerful strikes and shows real heart in times of adversity in the heat of the battle. Bellato also works well in the clinch and can wrestle, while he has a solid submission game too.
This seems like a well-matched fight skill-wise, so should be quite competitive wherever the action takes place. I feel Crute might have a bit of an advantage on the feet, but there is a question-mark over both his durability and mind-set here, and there’s a lot of pressure weighing on him to mark his comeback with a win. It’s possible he comes back feeling refreshed and if so this is potentially a winnable fight for him. However, while he’s not the most polished fighter, Bellato shows real hunger and determination in his performances and so I’ll take him to edge out a decision win here.
Pick: Rodolfo Bellato wins by decision.
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
Jake Matthews has struggled to break out of a pattern of win-one, lose-one over the past four years, but could do so here if he can get the better of Francisco Prado, who is 1-2 in his UFC run so far.
Matthews was just 19-years-old when he first joined the UFC as a promising prospect with a lot of potential. However, with over a decade of experience now under his belt the 30-year-old has never been able to push beyond just being a steady presence in the promotion. Matthews has solid boxing fundamentals and is hard-wearing, but he doesn’t always use that to his best advantage as he can be a bit too cautious and his output can suffer as a result. Matthews also has competent wrestling, can pass guard and work for submission opportunities as well as ground-and-pound, but he also has to be mindful defensively on the mat as he’s been caught in submission in the past.
Time flies as now Matthews is facing the next generation of up-and-coming talent in the 22-year-old Prado, who is moving up to 170lbs for this fight on the recommendation of the UFC’s own Performance Institute. That will mean that he’ll give up four inches in reach to Matthews however. Prado is a fighter who likes to pressure his opponents and is equipped with a solid mix of speed and power in his strikes, though he’s still got a ways to go in terms of clean technique and defense. Prado has proven to be a finisher though, stopping all 12 of his victories before the final bell, with half being by way of submission. He also stopped Ottman Azaitar via ground-and-pound in his UFC debut, although it was a spinning elbow on the feet that started the ending sequence.
Prado is still a work-in-progress and hasn’t had the easiest line-up of fights as he tries to establish himself in the UFC. He will give his all though and his aggression could pay dividends if Matthews is overly cautious. However, in the end I think Matthews more dialled-in fundamentals and greater depth of experience will help him to get the better of Prado overall to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Jake Matthews wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos
Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil
Colby Thicknesse vs. Aleksandre Topuria
Jonathan Micallef vs. Kevin Jousset
Rong Zhu vs. Kody Steele
Quillan Salkilld vs. Anshul Jubli
Park Hyun-sung vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
