UFC 313 takes place this coming Saturday night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Alex Pereira will be looking for his 4th successful light-heavyweight title defense in the space of a year when he steps into the Octagon against Magomed Ankalaev, who has gone undefeated in his last 13 UFC fights.
The 37-year-old Pereira is a former two-division Glory kickboxing champion who has been a revelation since turning his full focus on MMA when he arrived in the UFC back in 2021. He’s since gone on to become one of the sports biggest stars in a relatively short space of time, and he’s not done it through showmanship and trash-talk, but rather by going up against the best-of-the-best on a regular basis and beating them in devastating fashion. 7 of his 9 UFC wins so far were finished inside the distance on his way to becoming a champion at 185lbs and then 205lbs, and he shows no signs of slowing down, even signalling his interest in going up to heavyweight. Pereira isn’t the slickest or flashiest striker, but he’s a stone-cold killer who constantly stays at a range where he can quickly unleash his extremely powerful offense, including having the deadliest left hook in the sport, fast, untelegraphed head kicks, and brutal low kicks. His defense isn’t impenetrable though for those willing to move into the firing line, but despite his long career Pereira is still durable and has shown excellent powers of recovery when hurt. Pereira’s ground game is a weaker aspect of his game, but he did manage to survive against Jan Blachowicz on the mat a couple of years ago and has clearly worked to improve his takedown defense and defensive wrestling over time.
The 32-year-old Ankalaev has a strong record in the Octagon and came close to winning the at-the-time vacant title against Jan Blachowicz a couple of years ago, only to miss out due to a split-draw verdict. It was an uninspired fight that highlighted Ankalaev’s tendency to be overly cautious at times, and it led to him having to get a few more wins under his belt before being granted another shot at the belt. However, while Ankalaev’s lack of star power and ferocity in the cage may have held him back, he may well be as tough a test as Pereira has faced so far from a stylistic perspective. Ankalaev is a very composed kickboxer who likes to keep the fight at range with straight punches and kicks, and while his output can be low a times he does have respectable power and has very good counter-striking ability. His distance management bolsters his good defense, but he is less effective against low kicks. At closer quarters Ankalaev can work in the clinch and has good wrestling ability and solid top control, but hasn’t been much of a submission threat. Over the years Ankalaev has used his wrestling less, so it’ll be interesting to see how he approaches this fight.
This isn’t the most glamorous or money-spinning fight for Pereira, I do believe it has the potential to be his most challenging one yet. He’s proven to be the man for the big occasion and he’s only every one strike away from ending the fight. As such, Ankalaev can’t afford to just strike with him, but I do believe his cautious and calculated stand-up game from range can somewhat limit Pereira’s offensive intensity. The real key for Ankalaev however is to make full use of his wrestling, and if he does that I think he emerges with a decision win here.
Pick: Magomed Ankalaev wins by decision.
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
Almost a year ago Justin Gaethje lost the symbolic BMF title after a jaw-dropping KO delivered in the final second of the fight by Max Holloway. Gaethje now gets back to business in a fight that was originally planned to see him go up against Dan Hooker, only to then have to switch to a rematch with Rafael Fiziev on short-notice instead, who he previously beat by majority decision in 2023.
The 36-year-old Gaethje is an offensive striking powerhouse who manages to maintain a high-volume striking style while throwing punches with knockout power and fishing out particularly punishing low kicks too. With 20 wins via strikes from 25 career victories it’s clear that he’s had a great deal of success with that, but while he has tried to be more patient in recent times, at heart his aggressive instincts and willingness to eat strikes to land his own are still there. And to be fair to him his chin has held up a lot better than it should have given the wars he’s been in, but given that he’s getting up there in years and is coming off a KO it does leave a question mark about when his impressive durability may give out on him.
The 31-year-old Fiziev is a fearsome and talented striker in his own right. Coming from an extensive background in muay thai, Fiziev is a high-level technician on the feet who shows great speed, balance and agility that enables him to unleash a wide array of dynamic kicks as easily as other fighters throw a jab. He punches well too, though not as hard as Gaethje, and can threaten with knee strikes as well. Meanwhile, Fiziev is sound defensively, operating behind a high guard, and also has very good takedown defense.
Fiziev is one of only two fighters in the UFC to managed to go the distance with Gaethje to date, but he wasn’t able to match his energy levels and intensity late in the fight. And that’s a concern here given that he’s coming off an almost 18 months layoff due to an ACL injury and only agreed to this fight on less than two weeks notice. That feels like a big advantage to Gaethje, who I think will look to push the pace even more this time around and again manage to come on strong the longer the fight goes to emerge with another decision victory.
Pick: Justin Gaethje wins by decision.
Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Jalin Turner was a force to be reckoned with in the lightweight ranks for a while, but has tumbled down the pecking order over the past couple of years after only winning one of his last four fights. Now he’ll take on Ignacio Bahamondes, who has gone 5-2 in the promotion so far and is coming off back-to-back wins last year.
Turner’s recent form perhaps isn’t as bad as it first seems when you consider he only lost to Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker by split-decision, and also picked up a KO win over Bobby Green, but he was TKO’d by Renato Moicano last time out. The 29-year-old Turner is a giant by 155lb standards at 6ft 3″ with a 77″ reach, but then again, Bahamondes is also significantly larger than the average lightweight too, so he’ll only have a couple of inches extra to work with in height and reach this weekend. Despite his length, Turner is quite nimble and has good power in his punches as well as solid kicks. He can also wrestle and makes good use of his long limbs when he’s grappling, and though most of his career wins are via strikes, he’s also won three of his UFC fights via submission. However, while all his career wins are inside the distance, he’s lost all four fights that went to a decision as he struggles to maintain his energy levels late on his fights, while he’s also been stopped via strikes four times in his career too.
The 27-year-old Bahamondes is also a tall, lengthy lightweight and has a dangerous kicking game to go along with good punching power, resulting in 11 of his 16 wins coming via strikes. Like Turner he is capable of stopping fights early, as evidenced by his latest back-to-back victories coming in the 1st round, but on the other hand he’s shown he can maintain his volume-striking throughout his fights, meaning he’s still dangerous in the closing stages of his bouts and can be competitive on the scorecards. Bahamondes also has respectable takedown defense and can grapple to an extent.
These two match of well together and so it should be a competitive battle. I’d give Turner the edge on the mat and in terms of his high-level experience, but Bahamondes should give as good as he gets on the feet and offer a more versatile array of strikes, and I think his cardio advantage could be the key here in a hard fought battle to emerge with the decision win.
Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes wins by decision.
Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo
Amanda Lemos came up short in a strawweight title challenge in 2023 and has since gone 1-1 last year. Now she’ll fight Iasmin Lucindo, who has put together a four-fight winning streak in the Octagon.
The 37-year-old Lemos is primarily a boxer who combines big power for the weight class with good accuracy, but she tends to bring her intensity in short bursts rather than all-fight long, particularly at this stage in her career where cardio is more of a concern. Lemos has good physicality in the clinch and she’s able to grapple too, but she can be taken down and outwrestled at times, and is coming off the second submission loss of her career.
Given that she’s only 23-years-old Lucindo still has plenty of room to develop, but she’s already very experienced for her age with a 17-3 record, including going 4-1 in the UFC. She’s strong, has respectable power in her boxing at close range and is durable too, but while she’s also quite fast she does still rely more on her physicality than clean technique. Lucindo also has a solid wrestling game and can grapple, but tends to favor to control on top and look for ground-and-pound.
Lemos is the harder-hitter and cleaner striker here, but Lucindo is robust and given the 14-year age gap between them her advantages in speed and cardio, together with having the better wrestling may well be enough to edge out a closely contested decision win here.
Pick: Iasmin Lucindo wins by decision.
King Green vs. Maurício Ruffy
King Green dominated Jim Miller at UFC 300 last year, but was then tapped out early by Paddy Pimblett. Now he returns to fight Contender Series stand-out Mauricio Ruffy, who has won back-to-back fights in the Octagon.
The 38-year-old Green continues to provide a significant challenge to up-and-coming lightweight talents with his tricky to deal with style. Green has amassed a lot of experience utilizing his unorthodox boxing style that can catch opponents out with his crafty punches from unexpected angles and use of head movement and shoulder rolls to avoid strikes and land on the counter. The problem with this is that its a style that relies heavily on his fast reactions, and at this stage in his career he’s starting to get caught more often and isn’t as durable as he once was either. Green also has solid takedown defense and is generally good at not being finished on the mat, but did get somewhat carelessly caught in an early submission by Pimblett last time out.
The 28-year-old Ruffy is a highly regarded prospect who looks right at home in the UFC already. He’s an assured technical striker who will enjoy a 4″ reach advantage here and has sniper-like accuracy in his fast, powerful punches, while he kicks well too. His first 10 fights all ended via strikes, but while he did TKO Jamie Mullarkey inside of a round in his UFC debut he had to settle for his first decision win last time out against James Llontop. So it’ll be interesting to see how this step-up in competition goes for him and he does have to be more mindful of his striking defense, while his ground game hasn’t been tested much yet.
With Green’s style starting to become less effective as he starts to slow down I think that bodes well for a fast, accurate striker like Ruffy here, resulting in a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Mauricio Ruffy wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya
Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan
Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal
Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall
Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos vs. Osman Diaz
