The final UFC card of the year is upon us this weekend and we’ve got our predictions for all the UFC Fight Night 199 bouts below.
Main Card
Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus
After his interim heavyweight title bid ended in a TKO loss against Ciryl Gane, Lewis again looks to rebuild and end the year on a better note as he fights Daukaus, who is becoming a rising force in the division after winning four fights in a row via strikes since joining in the summer of last year.
Daukaus may be 30lbs lighter than Lewis, but he doesn’t have the most in-shape physique, but he does have good movement and striking technique for the weight class to go along with his proven punching power.
Meanwhile, though he’s the bigger man he also is deceptively fast and can close the distance unexpectedly quickly while throwing some of the heaviest hands in the division. Cardio is always an issue for Lewis though and so the 38-year-old doesn’t offer up much in the way of volume and he has also now been stopped five times via TKO during his UFC run.
This is a big step up for Daukaus and it’s certainly a daunting challenge to strike with someone of Lewis’s size and power, but I do like what I’ve seen from Daukaus so far and I think that being the more active, technical striker will pay dividends here, resulting in a third round TKO finish.
Pick: Chris Daukaus wins by TKO in Rd3.
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Belal Muhammad vs. Stephen Thompson
Muhammad is technically unbeaten in his last six fights, though he was getting beaten prior to an eyepoke no-contest ruling against Leon Edwards earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Thompson lost to Gilbert Burns on the scorecards last time out, but had one two bouts before that.
Muhammad has well-rounded skills and uses that to pressure his opponents, bullying his way forward with strikes, while also being willing to work into the clinch or go for takedowns, where his wrestling could pay dividends here.
Muhammad keeps a good pace, but on the downside he doesn’t generate the kind of power in his punches that will end fights, and he also has shown a tendency to find the going tough against technical strikers who are able to keep him on the outside.
The likes of Vicente Luque, Geoff Neal and Alan Jouban have already demonstrated that against him and that doesn’t bode well against Thompson, who is something of a master at maintaining distance with his slick movement, while he’ll enjoy a 4″ reach advantage here and his dynamic karate-based striking style, speed and timing will all pose problems for Muhammad and lead ‘Wonderboy’ to a decision victory.
Pick: Stephen Thompson wins by decision.
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Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill
Lemos is proving to be one of the most exciting fighters around at strawweight after putting together a four fight unbeaten run that includes two first round TKO finishes, while Hill has won plaudits for her competitive striking battles, but has now lost three of her last four bouts.
Lemos used to compete at bantamweight, but down at 115lbs everything seems to be clicking into place for her and she has serious power for the weight class and lands with real authority.
On the other hand, Hill doesn’t have a great deal of power and instead generally looks to use her striking volume to outland and outpace her opponents in order to claim a win on the scorecards.
Lemos isn’t the type of striker who is just looking to load up on one big strike though and I think she’ll be able to keep a good tempo while clearly landing the most hurtful blows throughout the fight. It’s always possible she could find a finish from that, but given that Hill has never been stopped I’ll say this one goes the full 15 minutes.
Pick: Amanda Lemos wins by decision.
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Raphael Assuncao vs. Ricky Simon
Assuncao will turn 40-years-old next year and he will be hoping that before then he can get back to winning ways after uncharacteristically losing three in a row in recent times, including a KO loss to Cody Garbrandt in his last fight back in June of last year>
Simon on the other hand is 10-years-younger than his opponent and comes in off a three-fight winning streak. He will be the quicker of the two here and has a 2.5″ reach advantage too. Simon can strike, but there’s no doubt that his strongest suit is his wrestling and he tirelessly lands takedowns at an impressive rate.
Assuncao has well-rounded skills though and a vast amount of experience to draw on, and while he may be showing some signs of slowing down he never really was a particularly dynamic striker to begin with, yet he still managed to compile an 11-1 run in the UFC’s bantamweight division prior to his recent losing streak.
So Assuncao will still be a threat with strikes or even by submission, but I think the younger, fresher and more energetic Simon will be able to outwrestle the veteran to claim a win on the scorecards here.
Pick: Ricky Simon wins by decision.
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Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Ferreira did well to put together a six-fight unbeaten run not so long ago, but has now lost two fights in a row, while Gamrot came into the UFC with a good deal of hype but lost by split decision in his debut, before going on to showcase why he’s so highly regarded with two wins in 2021 so far to go 19-1 for his career overall.
Gamrot is the type of fighter who seems well equipped to do good things in the lightweight division due to being a strong competitor in a number of areas, including having strong wrestling and submission ability, while also having significant power on the feet and good cardio.
Ferreira also has a skill-set to be competitive with anyone however thanks to his high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu and active striking game, together with drawing on a wealth of experience from fighting quality opposition in the UFC for a number of years.
That makes this a challenging test for Gamrot, but I believe it’s one that he can pass thanks to being the better wrestler and also having the ability to be the more impactful striker on the feet, leading him to a decision victory.
Pick: Mateusz Gamrot wins by decision.
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Cub Swanson vs. Darren Elkins
Swanson returns after a 63 second TKO loss to one of the divisions elite strikers in Giga Chikadze, and now goes up a fellow featherweight veteran in Elkins, who has now shaken off a four-fight winning streak after picking up two stoppage wins in a row.
When it comes to striking technique then there’s no doubt that Swanson has the edge here and will be the more dynamic and active stand-up technician here with his varied offensive output.
That’s inevitably going to cut-prone Elkins bleeding sooner rather than later, but that’s nothing new for ‘The Damage’, who will press forward regardless and seek to turn this into a scrappy war of attrition while hunting for takedown attempts.
That could definitely pose problems for Swanson as his submission defense is a major achilles heel and he’s not always the best at fending off takedown attempts either.
That being said, Elkins is more likely to be looking to go for ground-and-pound on the canvas, and that’s the kind of situation where Swanson is more capable of surviving and battling his way back to his feet.
Still, it’s a risky fight for Swanson, but I do think that he should have plenty of opportunities to tee off on Elkins with his combination work on the feet and while he might struggle to finish the hard-headed Elkins, that will take him to a decision win.
Pick: Cub Swanson wins by decision.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Charles Jourdain vs. Andre Ewell
Justin Tafa vs. Harry Hunsucker
Don’tale Mayes vs. Josh Parisian
Matt Sayles vs. Jordan Leavitt
Raquel Pennington vs. Macy Chiasson
Sijara Eubanks vs. Melissa Gatto
