UFC Fight Night 249 takes place this coming Saturday night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
In 2019, Amanda Ribas got the better of Mackenzie Dern by unanimous decision and now they are set for a headlining rematch for the first UFC event of 2025. The fight comes at a time when Dern is coming off a win against Loopy Godinez, while Ribas is looking to recover from a loss to Rose Namajunas.
Ribas was the first to expose the fact that Dern tends to struggle when she can’t get the fight to the mat, and she showed no fear in taking Dern down either at times on her way to handing the Brazilian star her first career loss. Despite gaining experience in the years since the 31-year-old Dern’s striking is still problematic, with her lack of speed and fluidity leaving her resorting to just trying to brawl at times, and due to her porous defense that leaves her wide open to being picked apart by more skilled strikers. She does carry some natural power though and is tough and durable, meaning she’ll continue to fight on through adversity even when things are going badly. Meanwhile her wrestling also remains underdeveloped, but her BJJ skills are excellent if the fight goes get to the ground.
Ribas, also 31, hasn’t shown a great deal of improvement either, and in recent years has fallen into a ‘win one, lose one’ pattern. Though not the most technical striker, Ribas compensates with aggression and she is faster and generally more effective than Dern. However, she is vulnerable to strikes and doesn’t take punishment as well as her opponent, having been stopped three times in her career. Ribas also has a judo background and is a confident grappler who has never been submitted.
In the end, I’m not convinced Dern’s game hasn’t evolved enough to change the outcome here. Ribas still has the edge in striking and has a good chance to thwart Dern’s attempts to bring her down, so I think she’ll win again by decision.
Pick: Amanda Ribas wins by decision.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris
Santiago Ponzinibbio, has won just two of his last seven fights since 2021, and now faces Carlston Harris, who joined the UFC that same year and has gone 4-2 since, but was KO’d in 90 seconds by Khaos Williams last time out.
Ponzinibbio, 38, is a seasoned veteran with a pressure-based kickboxing style. At his peak he had title aspirations after going on a seven-fight winning streak, but health issues then kept him out of the sport for several years and he’s not been able to hit the same heights since. He’s no longer as fast and offensively-minded as he once was, but he does still have good technique and volume, attacks well in combination and isn’t out of his element on the mat.
The 37-year-old Harris is an experienced campaigner who didn’t arrive in the UFC until he was already into his 30’s. Despite getting up there in years he still has good cardio and uses that to help wear down opponents with clinch work, takedowns, and wrestling control, while he also presents a threat via choke-based submissions. He’s a bit awkward on the feet, but he has a 3″ reach advantage and does throw with power. however, he has been KO’d twice in recent years, raising concerns about his chin.
While Ponzinibbio’s recent form is concerning, his losses were split decisions against tough opponents. He is the cleaner, more technical striker here and manages distance well, so I’ll take him to just have the edge here to earn a closely contested decision victory.
Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by decision.
César Almeida vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Cesar Almeida has a 2-1 UFC record since joining from the Contender Series, and now takes on Abdul Razak Alhassan, who has only two wins in his last eight Octagon appearances.
Despite being 36-years-old Almeida has relatively limited MMA experience, having spent much of his career plying his trade as a pro-kickboxer who was competing for Glory before turning his attention to competing in the UFC. His big calling card is that he once beat Alex Pereira on the scorecards in a kickboxing bout, though that was back in 2013 and Pereira had also beaten him earlier that year. Almeida hasn’t proven to be as potent a finisher as Pereira, but he is a skilled technician who makes effective use of kicks to the legs and upstairs, while he punches to good effect too. He’s also made efforts to develop his ground game, but given his late entry into the sport it’s still quite limited.
Alhassan is getting up there in years at 39-years-old, but he still retains his explosive striking and ability to land with knockout power, but he does tend to focus on that too often, at the expense of a more measured, technical approach, and that does also take a toll on his endurance. Meanwhile, his judo skills are rarely utilized, and his ground game is limited, but he has shown a willingness to use wrestling at times.
Almeida’s more technical striking should help him withstand Alhassan’s early aggression and though Alhassan is hard to finish I could see Almeida wearing him down enough to find a third-round TKO finish.
Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan wins by TKO in Rd3
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov
Chris Curtis and Roman Kopylov both went 1-1 in the Octagon in 2024, and while there overall UFC records are also very similar, Curtis has been shifting between wins and losses in recent times, while Kopylov’s form has been more consistent.
The 37-year-old Curtis is a seasoned veteran who likes to fight with a compact boxing style, making use of the Philly Shell defense, while working punches to the head and body and looking for opportunities to counter. He also has good takedown defense, can get back to his feet well and has dependable cardio. And though he has over 40 fights on his resume, Curtis remains hard to finish, with just one loss each by strikes and submission on his record.
The 33-year-old has a dangerous kickboxing style, having finished 11 of his 13 career wins inside the distance via strikes. Both his punches and kicks are fight-enders, and he excels at body shots, which have been the catalyst for four of his victories. Kopylov has also never been stopped by strikes, but he does have two submission losses in the UFC.
Kopylov is the faster, more dynamic and harder-hitting striker here, but the crafty Curtis’s experience and toughness will likely force the Russian to fight all the way to the scorecards to earn his victory.
Pick: Roman Kopylov wins by decision.
Christian Rodriguez vs. Austin Bashi
Christian Rodriguez’s four-fight winning streak was halted by Julian Erosa in the summer of last year and now he’ll look to get back to winning ways against undefeated Contender Series recruit Austin Bashi, who has a 13-0 record.
Rodriguez has garnered a reputation as a prospect-killer, having previously handed Raul Rosas Jr, Cameron Saaiman, and Isaac Dulgarian the first losses of their careers. The 27-year-old is a solid, reliable all-rounder who keeps a cool head under pressure and has shown an ability to outlast his opponents. He has good striking fundamentals, solid cardio, and a fairly capable ground game, although he was submitted in his last fight by a more experienced veteran.
As a much-hyped prospect, the 23-year-old Bashi had already been approached by the UFC several times before he finally arrived in the Contender Series last year. An athletic, high-octane competitor, Bashi looks to apply constant pressure and force a pace his opponents can’t match. He excels at relentlessly pursuing takedowns, has good wrestling and is a proven submission threat, with four of his last five wins coming by rear-naked choke. Meanwhile his stand-up game is respectable enough, but not as strong as his ground game.
Rodriguez’s history of defeating prospects makes this a tricky debut for Bashi. If the fight stays on the feet for extended periods then it favors Rodriguez, but I do think Bashi’s persistence in trying to get the fight to the mat will pay off for him, and he’ll grind out a decision victory.
Pick: Austin Bashi wins by decision.
Punahele Soriano vs. Uroš Medić
After losing four of his previous five fights, Punahele Soriano managed to get a win under his belt last year. Now he is preparing to fight Uros Medic, whose first-round TKO win last year brought his UFC record to 4-2.
Dropping down to 170lbs for the first time in his last fight might be seen as the start of a new lease of life for Soriano, who was clearly struggling at middleweight. That being said, his opponent Miguel Baeza looked a shadow of his former self that night and has since been released from the promotion, so it remains to be seen if that was a one-off for Soriano or not. The 32-year-old is known for his brawling boxing style, preferring to operate at close quarters while looking for his punching power and durability to win the day. He likes to strike from the clinch too, but interestingly in his last fight he also made more use of his wrestling than normal, which worked out for him.
The 31-year-old Medic also favors an aggressive style of striking, although he’s more of a kickboxer who has shown knockout power across multiple weight classes. He’ll look for more room to operate than Soriano and he also likes to mix in spinning techniques into his offense. Medic’s takedown defense isn’t convincing though and he’s lost twice in the UFC via submission.
It’ll be interesting to see if Soriano uses his wrestling again here as that could be a sensible strategy. He’s a brawler at heart though and I could see him getting drawn into a striking battle that won’t favor him, with Medic’s more varied offense and smarter distance management lining him up to find a finish in the second round.
Pick: Uros Medic wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Marco Tulio vs. Ihor Potieria
Thiago Moisés vs. Trey Ogden
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Bruno Lopes
Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes
Nurullo Aliev vs. Joe Solecki
Ernesta Kareckaitė vs. Nicolle Caliari
Preston Parsons vs. Jacobe Smith
Fatima Kline vs. Victoria Dudakova
