UFC Fight Night 255 takes place tomtorrow night in London, England and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady
Leon Edwards title reign was ended by Belal Muhammad last year and now he’ll look to forge a new path to the belt when he goes up against Sean Brady, who comes in off back-to-back victories.
Edwards is not accustomed to losing as the 33-year-old had gone unbeaten in 13 fights prior to that unanimous decision defeat to Muhammad. Edwards is a skilled technician on the feet who has good speed and respectable power, but doesn’t go all out looking for a finish. Instead Edwards utilizes a more patient approach and uses good footwork to maintain his range while waiting for openings to attack. As such he does tend to be accurate with his straight punches and well-executed kicks when he does engage and conserves his cardio well, but on the other hand his volume can suffer and give the impression of being overly cautious. Despite that, Edwards has generally been adept at doing enough to best his opponents (aside from Belal) over three or five rounds, and his willingness to use a surprisingly assured wrestling game to grind out wins has also been an important factor in some of his earlier UFC wins.
The 32-year-old Brady actually called out Edwards late last year, so when he was offered to step in as a replacement for Jack Della Maddalena this weekend on a months notice he jumped at the opportunity. Brady is a well conditioned fighter, so while having a shortened training camp for a five-round fight isn’t ideal, it shouldn’t effect him too much. Brady isn’t as slick or quick as Edwards on the feet, but he is a robust, hard-working fighter who will apply constant pressure with striking fundamentals. Brady is strong and will make use of that as he looks to gain control in the clinch and with his wrestling on top. He’s also a good grappler, and while many of Brady’s wins have come on the scorecards over the course of his career, the recent trend tells a different story, with three submission wins in his last six UFC bouts.
Brady’s ground game will certainly present a significant challenge for Edwards here, and his work-rate on the feet could be a problem too if Edwards becomes overly hesitant to engage. With that being said, Edwards will have the striking advantage and has also got a very good record against high level wrestlers and grapplers, so while it might be a close call and not as definitive as he’d like to ensure another title shot, I’ll take the former champ to win by decision.
Pick: Leon Edwards wins by decision.
Jan Błachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg
Ex-light-heavyweight champion has gone 1-1-1 since being dethroned in 2021 and now goes up against the in-form Carlos Ulberg, who is on a seven-fight winning run.
An 18 month layoff always raises some concerns about potential ring rust, but given that Blachowicz has just turned 42-years-old it only adds more uncertainty as to how he might perform on Saturday night. Blachowicz’s accomplishments command respect though, and even beyond his time at the summit of the division there’s no shame in a split-decision loss to former champ Alex Pereira last time out, or a split-draw with the newly crowned champion Magomed Ankalaev before that. Blachowicz has a well-rounded game that starts on the feet with his assured boxing, working well off the jab, while he kicks well too and has good distance management. Blachowicz likes to talk up his ‘legendary Polish power’, and he certainly can land with authority, though it may be exaggerated a little given that he only 9 of his 29 career wins came via strikes. Meanwhile, Blachowicz has good wrestling and can grapple effectively too, though only a couple of his nine submission wins came in the UFC.
This is the 34-year-old Ulberg’s biggest test yet, coming after his most notable win to date on the scorecards against Volkan Oezdemir last November. Ulberg is a dangerous, athletic striker who comes out of the traps quickly with good power, speed and accuracy, which has resulted in a number of fast finishes during his seven UFC fights so far, with four having come via strikes in the first round. He’s also earned a submission win in the dying seconds of a fight and a couple of decision victories too in the Octagon though, proving that he can still get the job done even if his opponents don’t wilt to his early offense. Ulberg’s ground game looked suspect when he first joined the UFC, and though it has improved since, it remains to be seen if it can stand up to the kind of scrutiny that Blachowicz might put it under.
It’s hard to overlook the combination of Blachowicz’s age and lengthy absence from fighting here, particularly against someone like Ulberg, who will have a speed advantage and press the action with active offense. Blachowicz’s wrestling could be a difference maker, but I’ll take Ulberg to mostly keep him at bay, land the more telling blows and ultimately settle for a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Carlos Ulberg wins by decision.
Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Holland
Gunnar Nelson is coming off back-to-back wins, but the caveat is that they are his only two fights in the last five years, and the last one was a year-and-a-half ago. Now he returns to fight Kevin Holland, whop drops back down to 170lbs after two 1st round defeats at middleweight.
The 36-year-old nelson is an impressive grappler who is very technical, methodical and assured on the mat, which enables him to effectively control opponents, but also finish fights, with nine of his 10 UFC wins coming via submission. Nelson does also have a karate-based striking game, which sees him work on the outside with fairly low-volume, but accurate kicks and punches. It’s a style that’s functional and gives him another option, but doesn’t feel like it blends together well with his more dangerous ground game.
The 32-year-old has moved between the 170lb and 185lb division several times now, but regardless of where he hangs his hat he’s picked up more losses than defeats, winning only three of his last nine bouts. Size isn’t an issue for Holland as at 6ft 3″ with a large 81″ reach he has a big frame for either division, and it’ll give him an extra 4″ in height and major 9″ in reach over Nelson this weekend. It doesn’t feel like Holland’s striking has been refined much in recent years, but he does still make use of his size advantage with his active offense, working straight punches down the pipe with solid power and versatile kicks from distance, while also bringing knees and elbows into play at closer range. Holland’s weak wrestling defense became a glaring issue during his first run at 185lbs and while he’s tried to improve upon his takedown defense and grappling ability it still feels like he’s susceptible to getting stuck off his back, though he is a decent wrestler offensively.
Holland can find success on the feet here, but Nelson only needs one chance on the mat to hunt down a submission, and I think he’ll make that happen to force a second round tapout.
Pick: Gunnar Nelson wins by submission in Rd2.
Molly McCann vs. Alexia Thainara
After winning just once in her last four fights Molly McCann now goes up against a newcomer in Contender Series recuirt Alexia Thainara, who comes in on just a week’s notice with an 11-1 career record.
The 34-year-old McCann is a tough, sturdy boxer who lacks athleticism but looks to make up for it with her heart and determination in the heat of the battle. McCann managed to rack up two big highlight reel wins in a row a few years ago thanks to her willingness to mix in spinning backfists and elbows into the mix at times, but overall that’s a big of a red-herring as she’s generally more likely to wear down opponents over time rather than land a finishing blow. McCann is physically strong and can also look to wrestle at times, but she’s not convincing in that regard and has had trouble being outwrestled at times, while both of her most recent defeats came via submission.
The 27-year-old Thainara has had little time to prepare for her biggest fight yet, but she will like her chances of causing problems for McCann on the mat given that she’s proven to be a threat in the grappling department, racking up six of her 11 career victories by submission while competing on the Brazilian regional scene. And Thainara also has solid striking ability and in addition to being the more athletic fighter will have a 5″ reach advantage as well.
Despite coming in on short-notice I think Thainara skill-set and athletic advantage could play well against McCann here, leading her to a second round submission finish.
Pick: Alexia Thainara wins by submission in Rd2.
Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris Duncan
Jordan Vucenic failed to pick up a win in his UFC debut last year, but will not try again against Chris Duncan, who has a 3-1 record in the Octagon.
The 29-year-old Vucenic is an athletic fighter who is confident in his striking ability, but has offered his biggest finishing threat on the mat, including all five of his most recent wins in the Cage warriors promotion coming via submission. Vucenic has gained a lot of valuable experience in that promotion over the years, even beating the likes of Paul Hughes and Morgan Charriere (who also competes on this weekend’s main card). So while his first fight in the UFC didn’t go his way he’s still a respectable talent and has never been finished in his career.
The 31-year-old Duncan can be a bit of tough, rugged bruiser who likes to close the distance and use his boxing to land hard punches in the pocket. He’s not the quickest to the punch though and can be it, but does an admirable job of fighting through adversity. He appears to be trying to tidy up some of the rough edges of his game though and does try to mix in some wrestling at times too. And though he suffered a swift submission defeat in his 2nd Octagon outing, he has since rebounded with a 1st round submission victory.
Vucenic appears to be the more technical operate here and is quicker too, which could help him find success on the feet, but will produce quicker results on the mat, leading to a first round submission finish.
Pick: Jordan Vucenic wins by submission in Rd2.
Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charrière
Nathaniel Wood has a 4-1 record in his last five fights and now takes on Morgan Charriere, who is 2-1 so far.
The 31-year-old Wood enjoys a striking battle and makes good use of his dialled-in boxing and works well on the counter, but he can be hit and while he’s durable he has been hurt at times. When Wood first arrived in the UFC back in 2018 he actually won his first three fights via submission, and in most recent times he’s indulged in some high-profile grappling matches, and last year earned his BJJ black belt.
The 28-year-old Charriere is also well-rounded, though his black belt in judo and solid grappling tend to take a back seat to his striking. Charriere is a kickboxer with a low-volume style that can be to his detriment at times, but he helps makes up for that by being potent and accurate when he does engage with good power in his punches and kicks to the head, body and legs. His two wins in the Octagon so far both came via KO, adding to his overall tally of 12 finishes from 20 career wins. On the downside though, his inactivity at times has contributed to nine of his 10 losses coming via decision.
Charriere’s power advantage could be the deciding factor here, but Wood will be the more active of the two while being roared on by the home fans, and so if he can avoid being caught by a killer blow I think the scorecards will swing in his favor.
Pick: Nathaniel Wood wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Felipe dos Santos
Marcin Tybura vs. Mick Parkin
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey Pulyaev
Shauna Bannon vs. Puja Tomar
Caolán Loughran vs. Nathan Fletcher
Guram Kutateladze vs. Kauê Fernandes
