UFC Fight Night 286 takes place tomorrow in Shanghai, China and you can see our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong
Umar Nurmagomedov arrives for this main event clash after wins over Mario Bautista and Deiveson Figueiredo, while Song Yadong also beat former flyweight champ Figueiredo in his last appearance.
Nurmagomedov is now 20–1, with his only loss being in a failed title bid against Merab Dvalishvili last year. So far the 30-year-old has come up short in his attempt to match other decorated fighters in his famous family, like his cousin, Khabib Nurmagomedov and PFL champ brother Usman, but he’s still a talented fighter with a very well-rounded set of skills who has a real chance of fighting for the belt again. Nurmagomedov is a good striker with an active, agile kicking game and good footwork to keep the fight at range, as well as solid defense. He also transitions smoothly to assured wrestling and grappling that’s resulted in seven submission wins, while his reliable cardio has secured a further eleven wins on the scorecards.
The 28-year-old Song has been in the UFC since he was 19 and has beaten a number of respected opponents over the years, including the aforementioned Figueiredo, Henry Cejudo, Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes, and Marlon Vera. However, he’s not been able to do so consistently, having faltered against other top contenders to go 7–4 over the past five years. Song is an athletic, technically sound striker with crisp boxing and good power, while he’s also mix in some kicks and also occasional takedowns. His own takedown defense is solid enough to help keep fights standing, and if taken down he is generally able to scramble back up.
I favor Nurmagomedov here as he has the advantage on the mat, but also has the tools to be competitive on the feet too, keeping the harder-hitting Song at bay with his kicks and faster footwork. As such I’m taking him to win by decision here.
Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov wns by decision.
Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes
Yan Xiaonan has gone 1–1 since coming up short in her title challenge two years ago, and now fights Denise Gomes, who has put together a four-fight winning run.
The 37-year-old Yan put together a six-fight winning streak earlier in her UFC run, but she’s had mixed results over the past five years, going 3–4. She remains a solid technical kickboxer who works behind a reliable jab, uses her speed well, and generally prefers a measured striking approach with active output rather than going all-out for a big finish, with all but one of her 9 UFC wins having been on the scorecards. Yan can be outwrestled at times and isn’t much of a submission threat, but she’s defensively sound on the mat.
The 26-year-old Gomes is 6–2 in the UFC, but this will actually be her first main‑card appearance in the promotion. She’s not the most technical striker and can overcommit to her strikes, but she’s aggressive, athletic, and carries real power. Seven of her twelve career wins have come by strikes so far, including a 20‑second stoppage of Yasmine Jauregui. She can also dish out damage with ground‑and‑pound on the mat, but her takedown defense and grappling aren’t the strongest.
Gomes is younger and more dangerous offensively, but Yan’s sharper, more disciplined striking over three rounds should allow her to emerge with her hand raised.
Pick: Yan Xiaonan wins by decision.
Aori Qileng vs. Kai Asakura
Aori Qileng returns after suffering a TKO loss back in May, while at that same event in Macau, Kai Asakura earned a 1st round KO victory.
The 33-year-old Qileng accumulated a lot of experience on the Chinese fight circuit before joining the UFC five years ago, and now has had 40 fights in total. His Octagon run has been inconsistent though, managing to go just 4–5 (+1 NC) so far. Qileng is an aggressive muay thai striker who will seek out high‑volume exchanges and close‑range brawls. He can work effectively in the clinch and has enough wrestling to open up ground‑and‑pound opportunities, but his takedown defense is unreliable. He only has one submission win on his record, but though he’s been submitted himself on three occasions they all came early in his career.
The 32-year-old Asakura already had a reputation when he arrived in the UFC, having been a two‑time Rizin bantamweight champion who had beaten the likes of Kyoji Horiguchi and Manel Kape. As such he was immediately launched into a flyweight title fight against Alexandre Pantoja, but was submitted, before also being caught in a guillotine choke by Tim Elliott in his next fight. However, his swift KO of Cameron Smotherman last time out showed what he’s capable of. Asakura possesses powerful punches, is sharp on the counter, and has hard-hitting knee strikes too, which has led to 14 of his 22 victories coming via strikes. His ground game isn’t his strongest suit, but I don’t see that being an issue in this fight and it’s worth noting he’d never been submitted prior to joining the UFC.
Both fighters here are naturally aggressive strikers here and so it shouldn’t take long for fists to start flying, and I like Asakura’s chances of being able to counter Qileng’s wilder offensive to produce a 1st round TKO victory.
Pick: Kai Asakura wins by TKO in Rd1.
Su Mudaerji vs. Alex Perez
Su Mudaerji and Alex Perez first locked horns in May, but an accidental groin strike in the second round left Perez unable to continue, leading to a rematch this weekend.
In that first fight, Perez tried to pressure by darting forward with brief flurries of punches, but struggled to reliably get inside Mudaerji’s 6.5‑inch reach advantage. He also struggled to get his takedown game going too, though when he did threaten with a guillotine when Mudaerji shot late in the round. As for Mudaerji, he mixed in some kicks from range early, but it was a well-timed punch in the second round that dropped Perez, but couldn’t find a finish before the foul ended the fight.
The fact that Mudaerji was able to have success stuffing takedowns and using his extra reach from range does bring a new perspective to this second match-up, and so while I’d still expect this fight to be closely fought, I’m leaning towards Mudaerji this time around to win on the scorecards in his homeland.
Pick: Su Mudaerji wins by decision.
Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr
Liu Ce is just 3–1 in his MMA record as he now makes his first UFC appearance against late replacement Levi Rodrigues Jr, who comes in on just a few days notice for Junior Tafa.
The 29-year-old Ce may have limited MMA experience but he’s had an impressive kickboxing career, including winning the K‑1 cruiserweight title and their 30th anniversary open‑weight tournament too. At 6’5″ with a 78″ reach, he’s a big, athletic light heavyweight with high‑level technical striking, fast delivery, and real fight‑ending power. While all his strikes are dangerous his low kicks are particularly nasty and have finished several opponents. The weakness is somewhat predictable in that as a striking specialist his ground game is underdeveloped, and his lone MMA loss so far came via ground‑and‑pound, However, he’s never stopped by strikes in his career.
Also 29-years-old, Rodrigues Jr. began his career with five wins, resulting in a call-up to the Contender Series, where he blasted his way to a first‑round KO victory. However, the celebrations were short-lived as he subsequently tested positive for anabolic steroids, resulting in a nine‑month suspension and the result being switched to a no‑contest. The bad news has kept coming for Rodrigues Jr as he was TKO’d in his return to action last month. Rodrigues is a thickly built power puncher with all five of his wins coming by strikes, but he can be quite hittable due to his offensive focus. He’s lacking technically too and isn’t the quickest, while he’ll also be at a 5″ height and 2″ reach disadvantage here.
There’s no doubt Ce has the far superior striking credentials here, and with Rodrigues Jr also being questionable defensively I can see a TKO finish for the newcomer inside the first round here.
Pick: Lui Ce wins by TKO in Rd1.
Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas
Bilal Hasan and Nilson Rojas are both unbeaten prospects with nine wins to their names as they now go head-to-head to kick off the main card in Shanghai.
The 25-year-old Hasan makes his way from the new season of the Contender Series, where he scored a 45‑second TKO just two weeks ago. He’s a taekwondo‑based striker with an impressively dynamic, versatile kicking game that targets all levels and includes the occasional spinning technique. He complements that with fast hands and an ability to counter, as shown in his DWCS knockout when he floored his opponent with a counter right. His ground game is less proven but functional, with one submission so far on his record.
The 27-year-old Rojas comes from the Peruvian regional scene and actually fought another fighter on this card, Kevin Borjas while still an amateur back in 2018, losing by unanimou decision. He’s gone on to to perform well as a pro now, albeit against less known opponents, picking up seven finishes via strikes along the way. He’s a compact boxer who works well to the head and body, carries notable power, and can maintain a steady pace over three rounds when required.
Rojas is a capable boxer, but Hasan has a lot of potential and I think his slick mix of fast kicks and punches will be too much for him, leading to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Bilal Hasan wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Namsrai Batbayar vs. André Lima
Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas
Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi
Jack Jenkins vs. Sean Woodson
Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago
Xiong Jingnan vs. Julia Polastri
Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson
