UFC On ESPN 66 Predictions

UFC On ESPN 66 takes place tomorrow night in Kansas City and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates

Ian Garry’s undefeated record finally came to an end in a 170lb title elimination bout against Shavkat Rakhmonov last year and now he takes on a fight put together on four weeks notice against Carlos Prates, who has got off to a strong start to life in the UFC with four KO victories.

The 27-year-old Garry’s stock didn’t drop too much by losing out to Rakhmonov given that he took the also unbeaten fighter to the scorecards for the first time in his 19-fight career, and also had a chance to demonstrate that he has very respectable takedown defense, can survive on the mat while under threat, and even throw in the occasional submission attempt of his own. That bodes well for his career going forward given that he already has a reputation as a well-versed kickboxer with accurate kicks and punches from range while staying defensively sound, utilizing good movement and having dependable cardio. However, though earlier in his UFC run he was able to deliver some big finishes, as the level of his competition has increased he’s settled for being more tactical and outstriking his opponents over the course of a fight rather than trying to take their heads off.

The 31-year-old Prates spent a good portion of his career bouncing back and forth between competing in MMA and frequent muay thai bouts, particularly over in Thailand. And at first it seemed like his MMA career might not work out as he only went 7-5. However, things then started to fall into place for Prates, who has only been beaten once in his last 15 MMA fights and won 13 of those fights inside the distance, including four in the UFC. Prates is an athletic striker who heads into this fight with a 4″ reach advantage, despite being 2″ smaller than Garry. He has a good knack for landing accurate strikes with power and his muay thai background means he’s versatile in his approach, with punches, kicks, knees and elbows all posing a finishing threat. Prates is also aided by having solid takedown defense to help keep the action upright.

Prates is certainly the more destructive striker of the two here, but it might be challenging to find a finish against Garry, who has never been stopped and fights intelligently from range while being mindful of his defense. Garry’s measured, technical style is more suited to competing over five rounds, and he’s also the more well-rounded of the two and could well look for opportunities to demonstrate that on the mat. So in a closely contested fight I think Garry will avoid an all-out war and instead turn this into more of a tactical chess match that he wins on the scorecards.

Pick: Ian Garry wins by decision.

Anthony Smith vs. Mingyang Zhang

After back-to-back losses Anthony Smith has decided that he’ll hang up his gloves after one last fight against Mingyang Zhang, who is 2-0 in the UFC so far.

This will mark the 60th fight of the 36-year-old Smith’s long career, and while at his peak he fought for the UFC’s light-heavyweight title, he’s also taken a lot of punishment over the years, including having lost via strikes 12 times. Smith has also had bad luck with injuries and other health issues at times too, and it’s taken a toll on him at this stage in his career, having lost five of his last seven fights. Offensively Smith can still be dangerous though as he’s not only a good muay-thai striker, but he can also wrestle and is a proven submission threat. In fact, Smith has stopped 35 of his 38 career victories before the final bell, with 20 by strikes and 15 by submission. The number of times he’s been finished in his career is troubling though, but to his credit he’s not exactly a glass cannon as he will still try to battle on through adversity for as long as he can. His ability to do so is only diminishing though, and these days he’s also shown a vulnerability to low kicks.

The 26-year-old Zhang is also a proven finisher, having stopped all of his 18 wins in the opening round, including a ‘Road To UFC’ quarter-final and two UFC bouts so far. Zhang is not a particularly technical striker, but he’s aggressive and hits hard. His lack of defense is a concern though and he has been stopped three times in the past via strikes. And on the mat he’s a mixed bag as he can pick up the occasional rear-naked choke finish, but has been submitted twice on the regional scene. However, it’s worth noting that Zhang has put that patchy form behind him in the past five years, having gone unbeaten in his last 11 fights.

I’m tempted to pick Smith here as he still carries a threat wherever the fight goes, while Zhang is untested at this level and has rarely gone beyond the first round. Smith has seemed really off his game for a while though, and with Zhang having big punching power and also the ability to land the kind of low kicks that trouble him, I think he could end ‘Lionheart’s’ career on a 2nd round TKO loss.

Pick: Mingyang Zhang wins by TKO in Rd2.

Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama

Giga Chikadze’s only Octagon appearance last year ended in a lost and now he prepares to fight David Onama, who has won his last three bouts.

The 36-year-old Chikadze had 50 kickboxing fights while competing for the likes of Glory before turning his full attention to MMA. And that finely honed striking technique, including fast, dynamic kicks and solid boxing made an immediate impact when he arrived in the UFC as between 2019 and 2021 he compiled a seven-fight winning streak that included TKO victories over respected strikers like Edson Barboza and Cub Swanson. Chikadze has come upon harder times since though, with a decision loss to Calvin kattar in early 2022 being followed by injury struggles that has resulted in only a couple more fights in the almost two-and-a-half years since, going 1-1 during that time.

The 30-year-old Onama has also made an impact as a striker with good athleticism, speed and big power in his punches. However, while Chikadze is more of a pure striker, Onama also has other strings to his bow as he’s a solid wrestler who can also grapple too. He’s not without his flaws though as he can bit on the feet, his takedown defense needs work, and while he’s never been finished, he can start to run out of steam before the final bell.

Chikadze remains the more refined striker of the two, but Onama has less miles on the clock and I think he’ll be able to have success on the mat here too help him come away with a win on the scorecards.

Pick: David Onama wins by decision.

Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov

After his eight-fight unbeaten stretch came to an end with a TKO defeat last October, Michel Pereira now returns against Abus Magomedov, who went 2-0 last year.

The 31-year-old Pereira has had an interesting career evolution from back in the early days when he was a wildly dynamic and creative striker who seemed determined to implement moves that would generally be reserved for the movies. Pereira showed great athleticism and agility to launch into all manner of jumping and spinning techniques, but while it was highly entertaining to watch and helped deliver a flying knee KO victory in his UFC debut, before long seasoned fighters were steering clear of his low-percentage offense and punishing him when his acrobatic exploits burned through his energy reserves. however, Pereira 2.0 then emerged, reigning in his wilder instincts and fighting at a more measured pace on the feet, while also deploying a solid wrestling game and submission threat. It’s rare that a fighter evolves as well as Pereira did and the results were clear for all to see, going on a long winning streak that carried over from 170lbs to 185lbs. Of course he was TKO’d in the 5th round of a fight with ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez last time out in which he was left tired out and overmatched on the mat, but that perhaps says more about his opponent than anything else.

The 34-year-old Magomedov has gone 3-2 in the UFC to date, with his two defeats coming against respected middleweights in former champ Sean Strickland and current title hopeful Caio Borralho. And to his credit Magomedov appeared to be getting the better of Strickland early in their fight, just one bout before his opponent went on to lift the title, but his cardio failed him in the second round, leading to a TKO loss. Magomedov is a relatively solid all-rounder who has solid kickboxing fundamentals and respectable power, but he suffers from a lack of activity at times. Magomedov can also look to wrestle however, and his submission win last time out was the 7th of his career, to go along with 14 finishes via strikes.

After a tough fight last time out I think this is back to the kind of opponent that Pereira can have success against, with his faster, sharper striking ability leading him to a 2nd round TKO finish.

Pick: Michel Pereira to win by TKO in Rd2.

Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby

Randy Brown’s loss late last year ended a three-fight winning run and he’ll now attempt to get back into the win column against Nicolas Dalby, who saw a four-fight unbeaten stretch broken in a split-decision defeat last year.

The 34-year-old Brown has gradually become more consistent since arriving in the UFC back in 2016, going from bouncing between wins and losses initially to compiling a 7-3 run in his last 10 appearances. Brown is large by welterweight standards at 6ft 3″ with a 78″ reach, which will benefit him to the tune of 4″ in height and 3.5″ in reach on this occasion. And Brown does like to make full use of that to implement his kickboxing from range, making good use of the jab and push kicks to keep opponents at bay, while bringing long knee strikes into play when in close. Brown’s ground game has matured over time, enabling him to mix in the occasional takedown and do better at working back upright if put on his back. He’s less likely to get finished these days too, though over the course of his whole UFC run he has been KO’d twice and submitted twice too.

At 40-years-old Dalby still does a good job of implementing a high-paced, battling style that can be hard to deal with. He’s a respectable all-rounder, but it’s really a mixture of cardio, steely determination and a strong chin that gives him his edge, allowing him to relentlessly apply pressure and fight through adversity to wear down his opponents. Its a style that’s going to catch up with him sooner rather than later given his age, but to be fair to him he’s still never been finished inside the distance, and two fights ago handed the much younger, previously unbeaten Gabriel Bonfim a 2nd round TKO loss.

Dalby does present a challenging opponent for Brown in that he will continually look to close the distance on the bigger man and will be willing to eat strikes to do so. However, Brown does have the long-range tools to make that easier said than done, and Dalby can be hurt, if not outright finished, so I’ll take Brown to chip away at him for a decision victory.

Pick: Randy Brown wins by decision.

Ikram Aliskerov vs. André Muniz

Ikram Aliskerov kicked off his UFC run win back-to-back 1st round finishes, but was then KO’d in the first round when he got a chance to fight former 185lb champ Robert Whittaker last year. Next up for him will be Andre Muniz, who is 6-2 in the UFC, but with his two losses having come in his last three appearances.

The 32-year-old Aliskerov’s only two losses in his 17-fight career have been to Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev, who KO’d him in the first round back in 2017 before they were in the UFC. Aside from that the former Sambo champion has faired well with his solid overall skill-set. In the UFC he’s been best known for his impressive striking displays, having KO’d Phil Hawes with a single right hand in his debut and then landed a flying knee flush to Warlley Alves face to set up a TKO finish. However, Aliskerov is also physically strong and made good use of his wrestling and grappling ability earlier on in his career.

The 35-year-old Muniz’s last fight was a split-decision victory over Jun-Yung Park back in late 2023, but he’s been out for almost 18 months since due to injury woes and Visa issues. Muniz is at his best on the mat with a skilled grappling game that’s delivered 15 submission wins over the course of his career so far. The most notable of those was undoubtedly an armbar finish over a past-his best BJJ ace Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza that claimed ‘Submission of The Year’ honors back in 2021. Muniz is a big middleweight who will also unleash power punches on the feet, but it’s not where he’s most comfortable and he has been finished five times via strikes in his career. Muniz can also have struggles with his cardio, and given his lengthy lay-off that’ll be something Aliskerov may look to test.

This feels like a challenging stylistic match-up for Muniz given that Aliskerov has the striking advantage, while also having the wrestling ability to make it difficult for Muniz to get the fight were he wants it. As such I’ll take Aliskerov to take control of the fight and deliver a 2nd round TKO stoppage win.

Pick: Ikram Aliskerov wins by TKO in Rd2.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick
Evan Elder vs. Gauge Young
Chris Gutiérrez vs. John Castañeda
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Alateng Heili
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Cameron Saaiman
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Polyana Viana
Timothy Cuamba vs. Roberto Romero
Chelsea Chandler vs. Joselyne Edwards