UFC On ESPN 67 takes place tomorrow night in Des Moines, Iowa and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Cory Sandhagen came up short in his bid to win the bantamweight belt last August and now moves on to fight ex-flyweight kingpin Deiveson Figueiredo, who also saw a three-fight winning streak broken in his last Octagon appearance.
The 33-year-old Sandhagen has been a mainstay at the top-end of the 135lb ranks for a long time now, competing for both the undisputed and interim title along the way, and beating the likes of Frankie Edgar, Marlon Vera, Marlon Moraes, Raphael Assuncao and Song Yadong along the way. He’s a tall 135lb’er who will have an extra 6″ in height here, though only one extra inch in reach. He operates well from range with clean straight punches and a varied kicking game to the legs, body and head. He does a good job of mixing up his high-volume offense to keep his opponents on their toes, and that includes working in knees and elbows at closer range. He’s not the biggest finisher, but back-to-back stoppage wins via flying knee and wheel kick a few years ago show that he’s certainly capable of doing so. Meanwhile, Sandhagen has sought out the occasional takedown and can generally make a decent job of working back to his feet if taken down.
Cutting to flyweight was far from easy for Figueiredo, but given that he’s only 5ft 5″ he’s certainly not a big bantamweight. Even so the ex-125lb champ has performed admirably so far since moving up, going 3-1 to date against good opposition. Figueiredo is a talented striker who has always had good power for his size, and blends that with speed and accuracy, but he’s not as much of a volume striker as Sandhagen. Figueiredo is well-rounded and is comfortable wrestling and scrambling on the mat while looking for submission opportunities. And while he is getting up there in years now, he’s still only lost once each by strikes and submission, with both coming against Brandon Moreno during their title quadrilogy a few years ago.
Two very good fighters here, but I think the fact that Sandhagen is both younger and naturally bigger than Figueiredo, while also being more active with his offense will lead him to a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Cory Sandhagen wins by decision.
Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
Reiner de Ridder won and lost titles in two divisions over at ONE FC prior to joining the UFC, where he has since gone 2-0. Now he’ll attempt to give the unbeaten Bo Nickal the toughest test of his 7-0 career so far.
Having also fought at 205lbs, the 34-year-old de Ridder is a big middleweight who will have an extra 3″ in height and 4″ in reach over Nickal. He is primarily a skilled grappler who stays patient and controlled on top, takes the back well and has managed 13 submission finishes from 19 career victories, including in both his UFC fights so far. On the feet de Ridder has less to offer though, with a lack of speed and athleticism not doing him any favors, and he has had cardio issues at times.
The 29-year-old Nickal is a world-class wrestler who has made a smooth transition to MMA competition in a relatively short space of time, breezing through his early fights in the sport with five 1st round finishes in a row that showed he’s a good athlete who can not only take opponents down, but has also already developed a solid submission game too. Despite that Nickal is still a work-in-progress, and that was most evident last time out against Paul Craig, where he opted not to use his wrestling against the dangerous grappler and instead looked to outstrike him. And generally he did so, but given that his opponent is known for his weak striking game it was a bit of an underwhelming performance and showed he still has work to do, but it did give him valuable experience and the chance to go the full 15 minutes for the first time.
If Nickal is eager to get back to his wrestling to remind everyone why he’s at times been tipped as a potential champion then things could get interesting here as de Ridder would welcome that opportunity to utilize his grappling. However, given that de Ridder is another underwhelming striker it does seem like another good opportunity for Nickal to continue to work on his own striking, and given that he’s improving from fight-to-fight and is the better athlete of the two I think he can clock in another steady, but unspectacular performance here on the feet to win out by decision.
Pick: Bo Nickal wins by decision.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Having gone 1-4 in his previous five fights, Santiago Ponzinibbio turned things around at the start of this year with a victory. Now he faces another fighter trying to put a losing slump in the rear-view mirror, with Daniel Rodriguez also having won in his last fight after three defeats in a row prior to that.
The 38-year-old Ponzinibbio had at one stage been a leading contender at 170lbs courtesy of a seven-fight winning streak, but serious health problems forced him to stop competing for over two years, and since returning in 2021 his form has dipped, going just 3-5. And of course part of that will be doing to him getting older to, so he’s quite as fast and action-orientated as he once was. That being said, he can still be a threat though and does look to apply pressure and stay fairly active offensively with good striking technique and footwork. Fast finishes are largely a thing of the past for him though and instead he tends to look to gradually wear down his opponents and hope for a stoppage later in the fight.
Like Ponzinibbio, the 38-year-old Rodriguez did have a hot streak earlier in his UFC run, going 7-1 in his first 8 appearances, before his more recent dip in form. The similarities don’t end there as Rodriguez is also a volume striker who looks to push the pace with a boxing orientated style that will see him make frequency use of the jab and work nicely between targeting the head and body. He’s less of a finisher than Ponzinibbio though and instead looks to outwork and outstrike opponents to best them on the scorecards.
This should be a closely contested fight that should ebb and flow and could end up with either fighter emerging with their hand raised. It’s a bit tricky to say for sure how much of D-Rod’s slump in form was just down to the level of competition he was facing. In the end though I do think he’s the more durable fighter of the two and also more consistent from start-to-finish in his fights, and so I’ll take him to eek out a slim decision win here.
Pick: Daniel Rodriguez wins by decision.
Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos
Two in-form fighters clash here, with Montel Jackson being on a five-fight winning streak, while Daniel Marcos has four wins in a no-contest in the Octagon to remain undefeated in his 18-fight career so far.
The 33-year-old Jackson has been in the UFC since 2018, has an overall 14-2 career record and holds the record for the most knockdowns in 135lb history (11), yet this will actually be his first ever fight on a UFC main card. Jackson is a big bantamweight who will have an extra 3″ in height and 6″ in reach over Marcos. He’s a good boxer who isn’t the most active, but is fast when he does attack and has consistently demonstrated his punching power, including KO’ing his last two opponents in the opening round. Jackson is also mindful and has never been finished, but his two losses came from being overcome by stronger wrestlers.
The 32-year-old Marcos is an athletic striker who will push the pace and has a more versatile striking game than Marcos as he’ll look to utilize kicks as well as punches, but while he has good power, he’s not as destructive in that regard as Jackson. Marcos can also try to mix things up by adding in a takedown or two, but he’s not as capable on the mat as on the feet.
While Marcos has had opportunities to fight on the main card before, I think Jackson will have a chance to show that he’s the better fighter here as I’d expect him to be the faster, more impactful striker of the two, while also doing a better job defensively on his way to a 2nd round TKO victory.
Pick: Montel Jackson wins by TKO in Rd2.
Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey
After picking up a win in his first UFC fight last year, Cameron Smotherman now gets ready to fight Serhiy Sidey, who has gone 1-1.
The 27-year-old Smotherman first attempted to fight his way into the UFC via the Contender Series in mid-2023, but was TKO’d in just 60 seconds. Three more wins on the regional scene were enough to grant him a late-replacement UFC debut last year however, and despite being a big underdog by beat Jake Hadley by decision. A well-sized, athletic 135lb’er, Smotherman is a solidly capable boxer from range with good power. He can occasionally be drawn into more of a brawl though that doesn’t always work out for him as in addition to his swift loss on the Contender Series, he was also TKO’d in just 13 seconds a few years ago. Smotherman’s offensive wrestling is an option if he opts to use it, and he also showed another side to his game by earning his first submission win in the summer of last year.
Sidey is a 28-year-old striker who is even bigger than Smotherman, having an extra 2″ in height and 3″ in reach over him. He’ll look to press the action with a versatile array of strikes, working in knees and elbows to compliment his solid punches and kicks. His offensive focus leads to him eating a lot of strike too, but he has registered 7 wins via strikes from 11 career victories and has yet to be finished. Sidey also has good cardio and is able to work on the mat if required.
Overall I favor Sidey here to use his pressure and durability to find a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Serhiy Sidey wins by TKO in Rd2.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones
It’s been almost four years since we last saw Jeremy Stephens in the Octagon, but the veteran now returns for a one-off fight against another former fighter making a comeback, Mason Jones, who will begin his second stint after notching up four wins over in Cage Warriors.
No-one would have expected back in 2021 that Stephens would eventually return to the UFC given that he was winless in six fights at the time and not getting any younger, and a 1-2 run in the PFL promotion afterwards seemed like the final nail in the coffin. However, Stephens had other plans and has gone on to win three fights in a row in bareknuckle boxing, including notable wins over fellow ex-UFC veterans in Jimmie Rivera and Eddie Alvarez. Stephens mix of rugged toughness, heavy hands and scrappy boxing ability has worked well there, much as it also has for Mike Perry, but whether that new-found momentum will make any difference when he returns to MMA at this late stage in his career is questionable.
The 30-year-old Jones only managed a 1-2 (+1nc) run in his first stint in the UFC a few years ago, despite having been a two-division Cage Warriors champ prior to that. He’s picked up three TKO wins in his last four fights back in that promotion however, and now hopes to prove he is a UFC calibre fighter. Jones has solid boxing ability and fights with aggression, though that does leave him open to being hit in return. He has proven to be durable though and has never lost by either strikes or submission. Jones has capable wrestling too and will use it, but while there are three submission wins on his record, the last one was all the way back in 2018.
Stephens fought a lot of good opponents over the course of his MMA career, which perhaps partly explains why his record only stands at a less than impressive 29-21 (+1nc) overall. Still, while TKO’ing a 41-year-old battle-worn Eddie Alvarez earlier this year showed he still has some fight left in him, I do favor the younger, faster and more well-rounded Jones to come out on top when the scorecards are read out here.
Pick: Mason Jones wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Yana Santos vs. Miesha Tate
Ryan Loder vs. Azamat Bekoev
Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson
Gaston Bolaños vs. Quang Le
Thomas Petersen vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Juliana Miller vs. Ivana Petrović
