UFC On ABC 4 takes place tomorrow in Charlotte, North Carolina and you can see our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida
Almeida joined the UFC in 2021 and has already made a considerable impact, winning four fights in a row to improve his record to 18-2. Now he faces Rozenstruik, who started his UFC career with four straight victories, but has only gone 3-4 since, though did claim a KO victory last time out.
This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler match-up, with Rozenstruik being a former high-level kickboxer who can end the fight with a single strike, while Almeida is a high-level BJJ player with deadly submission ability.
For all his striking prowess, Rozenstruik has been surprisingly gun-shy at times during his UFC run, but can burst into short spells of destructive action at times.
Rozenstruik has little to offer beyond his striking though and that makes him particularly vulnerable to someone like Almeida, who is 30lbs lighter than him, but is athletically built, has very good takedown ability and likely only needs one opportunity on the mat to lock in a submission.
Rozenstruik does have good counter-striking, so he could land something big as Almeida closes the distance, but I suspect it’s more likely that Almeida takes him down and submits him quickly.
Pick: Jailton Almeida wins by submission in Rd1.
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Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker
Smith has only fought once in the last 18 months due to injuries and ailments, and lost by TKO to Magomed Ankalaev. He hopes to return to form against Walker who has bounced back from a rough patch that saw him go just 1-4 to win two fights in a row by stoppage.
Both fighters are impressive finishers, with Smith has 34 stoppages out of 36 wins, while Walker has 19 stoppages out of 20 wins.
Smith is a skilled muay-thai striker who carries his finishing threat on the feet from start to finish, but also has a significant number of submission stoppages on his record too. He’s not as sound defensively on the feet though and has been stopped a number of times in his career, but despite that it’s by no means easy to finish him.
Walker has a 2″ height and 6″ reach advantage over Smith, and if left to his own devices he’s quite a wild and unpredictable striker who can end the fight with punches, elbows or knees. It’s a style that often leads to him finishing his opponents in the first round, but he also exposes himself to counters and has a questionable chin, so in recent years his coaches have tried to reign him in to become more patient and tactical. It’s not a comfortable fit though and he still seems to do better when he’s more aggressive.
This fight could go either way, but I think Smith is the more intelligent and consistent fighter here and will be able to exploit Walker’s mistakes to finish him via strikes in the second round.”
Pick: Anthony Smith wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry
Garry has a perfect 11-0 record including four wins in the UFC so far and now looks to add to that against Rodriguez, who saw his four-fight win streak snapped by Neil Magny via submission last time out.
At 25, Garry is a young and talented striker who has particularly skillful boxing and good mobility. He’s also capable on the mat and is still at an age where he’s improving from fight-to-fight, which will hopefully help shore up some of his defensive lapses.
Rodriguez is also a solid striker who maintains a good pace and applies pressure throughout the fight, and can also finish with opportunistic submissions if he finds an opening.
Rodriguez is over a decade older than Garry at 36 though and has been dealing with injury setbacks, so he might struggle to keep up with Garry’s more youthful speed and energy and as such I’m taking the Irishman to emerge with a hard-fought decision victory here.
Pick: Ian Garry wins by decision.
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Carlos Ulberg vs. Ihor Potieria
This fight was originally intended to feature on the prelims, but was lifted to the main card on short-notice and pits two Contender Series recruits against each other, with Ulberg coming in off a three-fight winning streak in the promotion, while Potieira has gone 1-1 so far and picked up a notable TKO victory over Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua last time out.
The 32-year-old Ulberg is a former kickboxer and trains with UFC champions Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski. He is a muscular, powerful striker who has finished five of his seven MMA wins by knockout. Much of that finishing prowess comes from his punches, but also uses leg kicks effectively and will look to keep the fight on the feet, as he is more vulnerable on the mat.
Potieria is a 26-year-old from Ukraine who holds a 19-3 MMA record, but he has not faced much in the way of notable opposition, except for his last win over, which came against a very depleted ‘Shogun’, who retired afterwards. He is a less refined striker than Ulberg and tends to throw more wildly, leaving him vulnerable to counters. He does have power in his punches though and can threaten with submissions too, but he doesn’t do a great job of blending his skills together.
I think Ulberg is the much better striker in this fight and his hard-hitting, more technical strikes will lead him to first round TKO finish.
Pick: Carlos Ulberg wins by TKO in Rd1.
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Tim Means vs. Alex Morono
The 39-year-old Means is a seasoned fighter, but he had a rough year in 2022, losing two fights in a row. He will try to bounce back on Saturday night against Morono, who is seven years younger and was on a four-fight winning streak until he got knocked out by Ponzinibbio in his last fight.
Means holds a 3″ height and 4″ reach advantage here, but he likes to utilize those long limbs at close range and in the clinch with a gritty striking style that involves plenty of elbows and knees alongside his punches. He does lean on his toughness to outlast opponents and break their will, but while he’s still durable it is a style that’s becoming more challenging at this stage in his career, so he can be hurt.
Morono might have an edge with his BJJ if the fight went to the mat, but he’s unlikely to take it there. Instead he prefers to brawl with his opponents, throwing hard punches with good volume. Generally speaking he’s a hard-headed fighter, but that doesn’t make him invulnerable and he’s still been knocked out three times in his career, including in his last fight.
This fight will be a war of attrition and both fighters will get hurt. I don’t think Morono will back down from Means pressure though and given that he has less miles on the clock I’m taking Morono to win by decision.
Pick: Alex Morono wins by decision.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Matt Brown vs. Court McGee
Karl Williams vs. Chase Sherman
Cody Stamann vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade
Natan Levy vs. Pete Rodriguez
Bryan Battle vs. Gabe Green
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Mandy Bohm
Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Tainara Lisboa
