UFC Fight Night 27 takes place in Indianapolis tonight and we’ve got our predictions for all the night’s bouts below.
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Main Card:
Carlos Condit vs. Martin Kampmann
The last meeting between these two was very closely contested and I expect we’ll see another competitive fight here as they are two skilled fighers who match up well together on the feet and on the mat.
I favor Condit this time around though. Kampmann’s a bit of a slow starter and I question how he’ll fare later on too in a high-tempo five round fight, while I feel in general Condit is the more dynamic fighter, has a better chin and cardio, and more tactical awareness.
Kampmann may work his way into this fight in the second and third rounds, but if Condit can hang in there I believe he’ll be able to capitalize on a tiring Kampmann in the last 10 minutes and possibly even earn a stoppage win.
Carlos Condit to win by TKO in Rd4.
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Donald Cerrone vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
This is a very interesting lightweight encounter. Dos Anjos has been on a roll lately thanks to a four fight winning streak, while apart from a couple of slip-ups cerrone’s run in the UFC has been impressive.
The most notable thing about Dos Anjos game lately has been his improved stand-up, but I still feel Cerrone is overall the better striker here, using range well, piecing together good, accurate combinations and generally being more aggressive.
Dos Anjos is very good on the mat, but despite his fondness for fisticuffs, Cerrone’s also very crafty there too and in fact that’s where he’s had the most success stopping opponents over the years. I see them cancelling each other out grappling wise and Cerrone making more of an impact on the feet to win on the scorecards.
Donald Cerrone to win by decision.
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Kelvin Gastelum vs. Brian Melancon
Gastelum won TUF 17 with a win over Uriah Hall and has since dropped down to 170lbs which could be a good move that’ll give him improved cardio and a little more speed in this fight.
He’s already a tough, solid if not spectacular fighter and while he’ll need to be careful against the heavy-handed Melancon I see him pushing the pace and having his han raised at the end of the three rounds.
Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision.
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Court McGee vs. Robert Whittaker
More TUF winners on display here as TUF 11 champ McGee faces ‘The Smashes’ winner Whittaker.
For my money McGee is the more well-rounded fighter in this bout. He’s not as dangerous as Whittaker on the feet, but he should be able to hang in there and has more to offer on the mat.
McGee also has excellent cardio and should be able to grind Whittaker down and potentially find a late finish with either a submission or ground and pound.
Court McGee to win by submission in Rd3.
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Takeya Mizugaki vs. Erik Perez
This is a tough one to call. Mizugaki’s always been a hard guy to beat, someone who can give anyone a hard night with his mixture of experience, toughness and technique.
That makes him a stern test for the younger Perez who’s looked like a real live-wire in his UFC career so far with three first round finishes.
Mizugaki could play spoiler here, keeping his opponent close with clinch-work and takedowns to grind him down, but I like Perez’s youthful enthusiasm to prevail here as he keeps out of his clutches and lights him up, though ultimately fails to stop him, on the feet.
Erik Perez to win by decision.
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Bubba McDaniel vs. Brad Tavares
I’m not entirely convinced Tavares is as good as his recent record would suggest, but he’s certainly an improving fighter who’s on form at this moment in time.
McDaniel possesses a decent submission threat and will put up a fight, but he’s the type of fighter that Tavares should be able to be effective against and might even be able to break his run of decisions against with a late TKO stoppage on the feet.
Brad Tavares to win by TKO in Rd3.
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Prelims: (Predicted winners in bold)
Papy Abedi vs. Dylan Andrews
Justin Edwards vs. Brandon Thatch
Darren Elkins vs. Hatsu Hioki
James Head vs. Jason High
Ben Alloway vs. Zak Cummings
Roger Bowling vs. Abel Trujillo
