UFC 315 takes place this coming Saturday night in Montreal, Canada and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
170lb champ Belal Muhammad defends the belt for the first time this weekend against Jack Della Maddalena, who has gone 7-0 since joining the UFC three years ago.
The 36-year-old Muhammad has managed to go unbeaten in his last 11 fights and lift the title despite not being the biggest, fastest, hardest-hitting or most technical fighter around. Muhammad certainly does have solid striking ability though, works well in the clinch and has very good wrestling too, but he’s not going to strike fear into the heart of his opponents with his finishing record, having only ended 6 of his 24 career wins inside the distance, including just 3 stoppage victories in his entire 19 fight UFC run. however, Muhammad is excellent at making the most of what he’s got, and that’s in large part thanks to a mix of high fight IQ, dependable cardio paired with a strong work ethic, and good durability. Muhammad makes the most of this by shrewdly applying constant pressure, picking his shots well and being able to adjust his tactical approach on the feet and on the mat as required to ensure he wins rounds and emerges victorious.
The 28-year-old Maddalena hit the ground running when he joined from the Contender Series in 2022, swarmed all over his first three opponents with tight, compact boxing combination work to the head and body at close quarters to register three 1st round TKO victories and followed that up with a swift submission win to show some versatility to his game. As such his opponents took note and started to approach him with more caution on the feet while also testing his takedown defense, so Maddalena has had to ease off on the early aggression and adopt a more measured approach. And that’s led to much closer fights, only edging his way to split-decision wins in his next two fights, while last time out Gilbert Burns appeared to be en-route to victory after outwrestling him, before a late rally saw Maddalena serve up a reminder of his striking firepower by dropping him with a knee upstairs and then KO him with elbows on the mat.
Muhammad excels at applying pressure and maintaining a high tempo over 25 minutes, and that’s going to be a real challenge for Maddalena, who has never gone beyond the third round before, and for much of his career has been far more accustomed to finding fast finishes. Muhammad’s superior wrestling is also likely to be an important factor, allowing him to not only take the challenger out of his comfort zone and get periods of control, but also to make him wary of committing to strikes on the feet due to the constant threat of a takedown. As such even if Maddalena can find moments of success on the feet at times, Muhammad will still do what’s required to win most rounds and ensure he retains his title on the scorecards.
Pick: Belal Muhammad wins by decision.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
Valentina shevchenko reclaimed the 125lb title last time out by defeating Alexa Grasso in their third consecutive clash and now she’ll move on to fight Manon Fiorot, who is unbeaten in seven fights since joining the UFC.
Shevchenko had enjoyed a long reign as champion prior to Grasso proving to be a real thorn in her flesh over the past couple of years. A 4th round submission loss in their first fight followed by a split-draw in the rematch could have pointed to Shevchenko being in decline, but she stamped her authority on the third fight by making good use of her sturdy wrestling ability and assured submission defense to win back the belt. Shevchenko is 37-years-old now and has had a very active career, having been competing since as far back as 2003, including over 50 kickboxing bouts, so that has to take a toll on her eventually. Shevchenko is a smart fighter though, so she knows how to pace herself accordingly, and while she might be slowing down a little in the striking department, she is still technically sound, continues to have an agile kicking game, and wisely is leaning more on her clinch work and wrestling now to help prolong her career.
It’s interesting to think that though Fiorot is only a couple of years younger than Shevchenko at 35, she’s actually been competing professionally for 15 years less than her, though she did have karate and kickboxing experience prior to that. Perhaps that’s why the 12-1 Fiorot hasn’t yet shown any notable sign of age catching up to her yet as she’s been in fine form of late with unanimous decision victories over Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield. Fiorot is a big flyweight who looks to be an imposing physical presence in the octagon with her impactful striking and steely determination, while also having very good takedown defense to ensure she keeps the fight where she wants it. Fiorot has enough power to command respect, but it should be noted that while she frequently finished fights via strikes on the regional scene and also won her first two UFC bouts by TKO, she’s since fought to the final bell in her last five fights. We’ve also yet to see her ground game be really put to the test.
Fiorot is the fresher, hungrier fighter and I do think she has a real chance here, but I also feel that this is a fight where Shevchenko’s vast experience and more well-rounded ability will come into play. As such I think her strategy will be much the same as it was in her last fight with Grasso, making good use of her stronger wrestling game to win rounds and ensure she continues her championship reign.
Pick: Valentina Shevchenko wins by decision.
José Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
A surprise comeback from MMA retirement last year saw revered UFC star Jose Aldo go 1-1 and now he’ll continue on to fight Aiemann Zahabi, who defeated Pedro Munhoz last November to extend his current winning streak to five fights.
At 38-years-old Aldo still remains a competitive force in the division, ending Jonathan Martinez’s six-fight winning streak in his comeback fight and then forcing Mario Bautista to earn his 7th win in a row the hard way by fighting him all the way to a split-decision verdict. And a lot of the hallmarks of Aldo’s game remain intact, including his accurate, technical boxing ability, his good footwork and distance management, and his top-tier takedown defense. Of course he’s not quite as fast or dynamic as he was in his prime now and has to be more mindful of his energy reserves, while he also doesn’t utilize his punishing low kicks as much as he did back in the day. however, to his credit he did manage to mix in some offensive wrestling against Martinez to freshen things up a little.
Zahabi hasn’t exactly been in a hurry during his UFC run, having only fought eight times in eight years. That includes almost a two year time-out in 2019 after suffering back-to-back defeats in the Octagon, and could have spelled the end for his time in the promotion. However, the brother of famed coach Firas Zahabi did eventually return, and slowly but surely put together his current five-fight unbeaten stretch over the past four years. It does mean that he’s now 37-years-old though, so he’s left it late to make a push up from his current No.15 spot on the rankings, but he certainly has looked to have become an improved fighter at this relatively late stage in his career as he paces himself better these days, has a solidly capable counter-striking game and has capable takedown defense and grappling chops.
Zahabi has done well to get to this point, but I think Aldo will just prove to be a step too far for him, with the veteran star proving he’s the superior striking technician in a tactical fight on the feet that’ll go the full 15 minutes.
Pick: Jose Aldo wins by decision.
Alexa Grasso vs. Natália Silva
After losing the flyweight title to Valentina Shevchenko in their trilogy fight last year, Alexa Grasso now takes on a new challenge against Natalia Silva, who is looking to push towards title contention herself after compiling a 6-0 run in the Octagon.
The 31-year-old Grasso’s uptick in form after switching to flyweight in 2020 after a mixed set of results at strawweight was instantaneous, going on a five-fight winning streak that culminated in a stunning submission win over Shevchenko to win the title. While she often felt a bit undersized and outmuscled at times even at 115lbs, up at 125lbs Grasso’s fast hands and footwork, together with her slick, accurate in-and-out striking technique and good cardio was even more of an asset, while she also seemed a bit more robust and her crafty submission game could also pose problems for opponents on the mat. Even so, her tendency to get overpowered on the mat at times has still been an issue at times, with Shevchenko taking advantage of that in their third fight in particular.
Like Grasso, the 28-year-old Silva also has very good speed and movement. She’s a well-rounded fighter too and so will be an offensive threat both on the feet and on the mat. Striking wise she has solid boxing technique, but even better striking ability, and she’s utilized that to rack up a couple of impressive head kick and spinning back kick TKO wins during her time in the UFC. Meanwhile Silva can also wrestle and had a knack for finishing fights via armbar during her run on the regional circuit prior to joining the UFC.
Two talented fighters here so it should be a very competitive fight, but while Grasso is fast and very good technically I think Silva matches up with her well in those regards, while also having a more dangerous kicking threat, stronger wrestling and better physicality, which will help her to a hard-fought decision win.
Pick: Natalia Silva wins by decision.
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec
After suffering two losses in a row Benoit Saint Denis now looks to bounce back on Saturday night against a short-notice opponent in Kyle Prepolec, a former UFC fighter who now gets another chance to shine on less than a week’s notice.
The 29-year-old Saint Denis made a big impact during his desctructive five-fight winning streak between 2022 and 2023. An aggressive action fighter, Denis was able to storm his opponents with a hard-hitting, high volume mix of punches and kicks, while also being able to mix things up with wrestling, ground-and-pound and a well-versed submission game. In fact, though three of his UFC win came via strikes, the former French special forces fighter tended to lean more on his grappling ability to finish fights on the regional scene, and we have seen that a couple of times in the Octagon too. The problem for BSD however is that he’s always been quite hittable, and while he’s traditionally been able to lean on his toughness and durability to battle through that, his latest KO and TKO losses to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano suggest that is no longer something he can rely on.
The 35-year-old Prepolec actually had a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it run in the UFC back in 2019, losing back-to-back fights on Canadian UFC Fight Night cards before being released. However, Prepolec has got back to winning ways on the regional circuit, compiling a 4-1 run that includes three 1st round TKO victories in a row, which has led to him being handed this late-notice call-up. Prepolec has an overall 18-8 record and is a reasonable striker who can threaten with punches, kicks and will mix in the occasional spinning attack, while he’s also never been finished via strikes. However, Prepolec doesn’t have dependable takedown defense and isn’t much of a threat on the mat.
Saint Denis had been facing a potentially challenging fight against Joel Alvarez, but due to the late switch in opponent he’ll surely now be feeling that this is a good opportunity to shake off the disappointment of the last couple of fights with a much more winnable match-up. BSD could try to rebuild his stand-up confidence by looking to best Prepolec on the feet, but more likely he’ll seek to just take him down and deliver a fast finish, and I think he’ll do just that with a 1st round submission stoppage.
Pick: Benoit Saint Denis wins by submission in Rd1
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke
Jéssica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cuțelaba
Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan
Marc-André Barriault vs. Bruno Silva
Daniel Santos vs. Lee Jeong-yeong
Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan
