UFC 316 takes place tomorrow night in New Jersey and you can see our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley
Merab Dvalishvili defeated Sean O’Malley by unanimous decision last September to become the new UFC bantamweight champion and has since notched up his first successful title defense against Umar Nurmagomedov. Now Dvalishvili heads into a rematch with O’Malley, who has been sat out waiting for this opportunity since they last locked horns.
Everyone knows the 34-year-old Dvalishvili’s wrestling-based style by now, not least O’Malley, who was taken down in every round of their first encounter. Dvalishvili isn’t actually the most skilled takedown artist, or the best at keeping the fight on the mat either for that matter, as his overall 10 minutes of control time in that 25-minute clash shows. However, Dvalishvili’s remarkable cardio and relentless approach to wrestling mean he always seems to get his opponent to the mat in the end, and is then happy to repeat that process again and again until the fight ends. Dvalishvili doesn’t really offer a finishing threat on the mat though, and it’s a similar story on the feet where he tends to just get by with busy-work and being durable in-between his takedown attempts. As such, in his entire career to date Dvalishvili has only ever managed three finishes via strikes and one by submission, but his current 12-fight winning streak shows that is not holding him back in any way so far.
This is a tough stylistic match-up for a slick, technical striking like O’Malley, but he can draw some positives from their previous clash as he was able to fend off some of Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts and managed to prevent himself just being stuck underneath him for the entirety of the fight. He’s since claimed a hip injury had hindered his training camp for that fight, and that he’s been able to work more on his takedown defense this time around, but it still feels like a big ask to prevent his relentless attempts. Perhaps the biggest glimmer of hope for ‘Suga’ came in the final round of their first fight, where he still looked surprisingly fresh and was able to land front kicks to the body that seemed to be troubling the champion. And while there’s a big chance O’Malley’s striking opportunities may be quite limited again in the rematch, there’s no doubt that his sniper-like accuracy and proven stopping power means he always carries the threat of finding a finish against the hittable Dvalishvili.
If you run this fight back enough times O’Malley’s striking prowess would mean he’d eventually deliver a stoppage win, but in the majority of cases I think we end up with pretty much the same fight as last time with Merab landing a good number of takedowns and having enough periods of control to emerge with his hand raised, and that’s what I expect to see happen on Saturday night.
Pick: Merab Dvalishvili wins by decision.
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison
Julianna Pena reclaimed the vacant bantamweight title by defeating Raquel Pennington in October of last year and now goes up against Kayla Harrison, who has won both of his fights in the octagon so far.
It’s been three-and-a-half years since the 35-year-old Pena’s shock upset win over Amanda Nunes to first win the bantamweight title, yet she’s actually only fought twice since – once in a rematch against Nunes which saw her fairly convincingly defeated, and then the title win over Pennington last year. Truth be told it doesn’t really feel like Pena has been diligently working behind-the-scenes to level up the weaker aspects of her game as when she does compete it feels like she still leans a lot on her natural toughness and tenacity to get the better of her opponents when the action is upright. She does do some good bullying work in the clinch though, has solid wrestling and proven submission ability. She’s not going to be the bigger, physically stronger fighter in this match-up though, and so that’s where a lack of improvement in the more technical aspects of her game could be problematic.
She may only be a couple of fights into her time in the UFC, but the 34-years-old Harrison has already accomplished more than most, having been a former two-time Olympic Judo gold medalist in addition to having then transition to MMA and won two separate $1 million dollar PFL tournaments. Harrison is since proved that she can replicate her form in the Octagon last year by overwhelming Holly Holm in her debut and then also beating Ketlen Vieira, albeit in a less dominant fashion. Harrison has a roughly similar height and reach to Pena, but she’s much bigger and more muscular, having previously fought all the way up at lightweight. It’s quite a feat that she’s managed to cut down to 135lbs to fight in the UFC, and probably isn’t great for her health, but it does make her something of a physical powerhouse in the Octagon. and of course with her high-level judo ability that means she’s strong in the clinch and has good takedowns, while on the mat she has heavy ground-and-pound and offers a submission threat too. However, though though her striking can be impactful it certainly isn’t as polished as other aspects of her game and is somewhat lacking in speed and fluidity.
Harrison has gone five-rounds twice in her career, but never yet since making this huge weight cut down to bantamweight. With that in mind it’ll be interesting to see how she holds up against the doggedly determined Pena if this fight goes into the later rounds. Even so, I think by that stage Harrison will have a few rounds in the bank already due to winning the clinch battle, getting a few takedowns and roughing up her opponent. Pena’s likely tough enough to endure that and attempt to stage a late comeback, but Harrison will still emerge with the win on the scorecards to become the new 135lb champ.
Pick: Kayla Harrison wins by decision.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
This fight fell through at the last moment a few months ago and is now rescheduled for this event, so you’ll find our original prediction for it below.
After losing six of his previous eight fights, Kelvin Gastelum got a win under his belt in his only UFC appearance last year. Now he fights Joe Pyfer, who has gone 4-1 since arriving from the Contender Series.
At 33-years-old, Gastelum is back up at middleweight after a brief interlude at welterweight was again aborted due to the weight-cutting issues that also thwarted his previous run there years ago. You can see why Gastelum wanted to go back down because he doesn’t have the right body type for 185lbs, with his short, stocky build and limited reach meaning he’ll be at a 5″ height and 4″ reach disadvantage on Saturday night. Despite that, Gastelum has proven to have speed on his side in this weight class, reasonable power and impressive durability, having still never been stopped by strikes. He’s a fighter who doesn’t appear to have really developed over the years skill-wise, so his striking can be quite predictable, but he benefits from having fast hand-speed.
The 28-year-old Pyfer isn’t the flashiest striker either, but he has solid boxing fundamentals and possesses thumping power in his fists, with a fast KO finish of Marc Andre Barriault last time out being his 9th stoppage win via strikes from 13 career victories. Pyfer has also shown a willingness to utilize wrestling to get the fight to the mat at times, and has a competent grappling game too that’s already led to a victory by submission in the Octagon.
Gastelum is still very tough, but he’s getting to that stage where he’s not quite as quick on his feet or fast to the punch, and so I think the harder-hitting Pyfer will have the better moments in the stand-up action here, landing some big punches along the way, but then have to settle for a decision win.
Pick: Joe Pyfer wins by decision.
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
Mario Bautista eked out a split-decision win over Jose Aldo last time out to extend his winning streak to seven fights and now squares up against former Bellator bantamweight champ Patchy Mix, who is making his UFC debut as he looks to build on his 20-1 career record.
The 31-year-old Bautista received a fair amount of criticism for resorting to a grinding, clinch-heavy approach against Aldo in his last Octagon appearance, but that’s not typically how he operates. Generally speaking Bautista is a hard-working, well-conditioned fighter who likes to push the pace throughout his fights wherever the action goes. He isn’t much of a finisher on the feet, but he has solid technique and good volume with his punches and kicks. Aldo’s legendary takedown defense might have made things difficult for him, but he is a competent wrestler and he is a submission threat on the mat, even finishing three UFC opponents in a row a few years ago in that fashion. He can be taken down at times, but Bautista has only been submitted once back in his UFC debut 6 years ago.
The 31-year-old Mix arrives in the UFC still in his prime years and that’s exciting as he did very well in Bellator and beat some notable names along the way, including the likes of Sergio Pettis and Kyoji Horiguchi. Mix is an athletic fighter who has strong wrestling ability and excellent grappling, giving him assured control on top, very good back takes and a tried-and-tested knack for locking in submissions, having found 13 finishes throughout his career. Mix isn’t as dangerous on the feet, but he’s still a very capable striker with solid fundamentals, so he’s a well-rounded, experienced fighter overall.
This isn’t an easy first test for Mix by any means, but I do favor him here as I think he can win the wrestling battle and at least put Bautista in some tough spots with his grappling, though he might have to settle for a win on the scorecards in the end.
Pick: Patchy Mix wins by decision.
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland
After submitting Thema Gorimbo in less than a minute at the tail-end of 2024, Vicente Luque now looks to build on that against Kevin Holland, who beat Gunnar Nelson by decision a few months ago.
For much of his career the 33-year-old Luque has been known for being a tough-as-nails action fighter who could walk through strikes to land his own and had strong finishing ability both on the feet and on the mat. However, Luque suffered a frightening setback in 2022 when a knockout loss to Geoff Neal led to him suffering a brain hemorrhage. Thankfully a year later he was cleared to continue to resume his fighting career, but it’s challenging to continue to be so fearless and willing to take damage after that. Luque did win his next fight against Rafael dos Anjos, but it was quite a tame fight in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand, in his next appearance the hard-hitting Joaquin Buckley caught him and Luque notably didn’t put up much of a fight on his way to being TKO’d. It was a sign that perhaps Luque wasn’t the fighter he once was, though to be fair he did look better last time out when he sat down on his punches in the opening minute against Gorimbo and quickly floored him, before showing his submission skill with an anaconda choke finish. A 54 second fight wasn’t really enough to shake off the concerns about how Luque would cope in a back-and-forth battle though.
The 32-year-old Holland has continued to be active in recent years while shifting between fighting at 170lbs and 185lbs, but has struggled to find consistency in either division, having lost 6 of his last 10 fights. Holland’s long frame certainly gives him an advantage at welterweight and so he’ll enjoy a 4″ height and 5.5″ reach advantage over Luque on Saturday night. It’s questionable whether he’s as potent in this weight class as he was when he first made his mark in the UFC at 185lbs back in 2020, but he does use his long limbs effectively with straight punches and versatile kicks from distance, while he can also bring in high knees and far-reaching elbows at closer range. Meanwhile his ground game is still flawed. Takedown defense and get-up ability was a glaring weakness earlier in his UFC campaign, and while he’s tried to address that it doesn’t feel like it’s been solved, but offensively he an actually work for takedowns and threaten with submissions.
Luque is a dangerous fighter and could pose problems for Holland on the mat, but his striking style is so reliant on being able to withstand damage, and I’m just not sure he’s willing to repeatedly fight through the fire against Holland’s long-range weapons on the feet, and so I’ll take ‘Trailblazer’ to win by 2nd round TKO here.
Pick: Kevin Holland wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs. Joshua Van
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson
Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong
Jeka Saragih vs. Yoo Joo-sang
Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski
