UFC Fight Night 250 takes place tomorrow in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Israel Adesanya lost the middleweight title in 2023 and then suffered a submission defeat to current champion Dricus du Plessis last year. Now, he’s fighting in a non-title bout for the first time in six years against the No.5 ranked Nassourdine Imavov, who won all three of his fights last year.
Despite recent setbacks, Adesanya remains one of the sport’s best strikers, with excellent kickboxing technique, good speed and shrewd shot selection. He’s not typically the hardest hitter around, but his cerebral approach enables him to read his opponents well, manage distance effectively and set traps for accurate counter-strikes as and when required. However, after years at the top of the sport, very tough back-to-back fights with his nemesis Alex Pereira followed by back-to-back losses has led to question-marks about the 35-year-old’s hunger, motivation and focus at this stage in his career. He also suffered his first submission loss last time out, which might encourage others to try to exploit the fact that his ground game isn’t at the same level as his striking.
The 29-year-old Imavov originates from Dagestan, but has been residing in France for the past two decades. He’s physically strong, durable and is a solid all-rounder with a 7-2 (+1 NC) record in the UFC. He’s not the flashiest striker, but he has well-versed, accurate fundamentals and does a good job of keeping opponents at the end of his kicks and punches from range, while he’ll look to mix in knees and elbows at closer quarters. He will be giving up an inch and height and 5″ in reach to Adesanya though, which isn’t ideal. Meanwhile, Imavov is also a capable wrestler who prefers ground-and-pound over submissions.
In this matchup, Imavov’s broader skill-set could enable him to test Adesanya’s ground game and put him out of his comfort zone. However, while he can also be somewhat competitive on the feet, Adesanya’s is still the superior technician, and with his speed, movement and reach advantage I think he’ll be able to limit Imavov’s takedown threat while outsmarting him in the striking exchanges to win by decision.
Pick: Israel Adesanya wins by decision.
Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michael Page
Shara Magomedov is unbeaten in his career and 4-0 in the UFC so far as he now prepares to face former Bellator star Michael ‘Venom’ Page, who is 1-1 since joining the promotion last year.
You wouldn’t think Magomedov comes from Dagestan given how he looks and fights as the ginger-haired 30-year-old is known for his relentless, creative striking ability, exemplified by his recent KO of Armen Petrosyan with a never-seen-before double spinning-backfist. His high output and unpredictable attacks with all eight limbs make him hard to contend with, but he’s not as sound defensively, and his ground game is underdeveloped.
‘Venom’ Page is also a unique striker with a lot of creative flair. At 37-years-old he’s still an agile, athletic specimen and will have a 6″ reach advantage here. He’s a fighter who likes to operate on the outside and can lull his opponent’s into a false sense of security with his hands down by his sides, before suddenly closing the distance very swiftly to land powerful, dynamic strikes. He’s quick on the counter-attack too and is generally hard to hit. Despite all his striking experience, he is vulnerable to low kicks though and his ground game is merely functional.
This match promises an intriguing striking battle, but while Page’s more elusive, sniper-like approach could frustrate ‘Bullet’, I think Magomedov’s higher output and aggressive pressure will play better with the judges to earn a decision victory.
Pick: Shara Magomedov to win by decision.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
4th ranked heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich looks to rebound from back-to-back defeats when he takes on the No.9 placed Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who earned back-to-backs wins last year.
It was only a couple of years ago that the 32-year-old Pavlovich put together a dominant six-fight winning streak, finishing all his opponents via strikes, including the likes of Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis. He possesses powerful, compact boxing ability that’s aided by an 84″ reach and has a fast-starting, aggressive style that’ll see him unleash punches-in-bunches. However, while it’s a style that’s generally worked out very well for him, he has been finished via strikes himself twice in his UFC run, and the longer the fight goes the more his cardio starts to wane. Pavlovich does also have a decent wrestling game, but it’s not something he often turns to.
The 36-year-old Rozenstruik had a long kickboxing career before switching to MMA and his striking prowess was on full display early in his UFC run with his first four wins coming via strikes, including three KO’s. He became more of a cautious counter-striker after being KO’d by Francis Ngannou though, to the point of looking gun-shy at times, and while he still remains as potent as ever when he does let his fists fly, he’s lost as many fights as he’s won in his last 10 Octagon appearances. He also has essentially nothing to offer on the mat, giving Pavlovich another potential avenue to victory.
I think Pavlovich’s aggression from the start will likely force Rozenstruik onto the back-foot early in this fight, and while weathering that storm could put him in with a chance later in the fight, I’ll take the Russian to find a home for some of his strikes to deliver a first round TKO finish.
Pick: Sergei Pavlovich wins by TKO in Rd1.
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Said Nurmagomedov returns to the Octagon for the first time in over a year, following a submission win over Muin Gafurov that took his UFC record to 7-2. He now faces Vinicius Oliveira, a Contender Series recruit who went 2-0 last year in the Octagon.
Despite his famous surname and hailing from Dagestan, the 32-year-old Said is not related to the famous Nurmagomedov family that includes Khabib, Umar and Usman. And Said is also predominantly a striker with an agile assortment of kicks to all levels from range being the hallmark of his style. He’s accurate and quick but hasn’t proven to be much of a finisher on the feet. Said does also have solid wrestling though and he’s notched up three submission finishes in his last five UFC outings.
The 29-year-old Oliveira is a dynamic striker with 16 knockouts among his 21 career wins, including a flying knee KO in his UFC debut. He’s more aggressive and harder hitting than Nurmagomedov, but is more hittable too and is less effective on the mat, despite having a couple of submission wins to his name.
This fight could prove to be quite competitive on the feet, but I do think Oliveira’s striking threat will lead Nurmagomedov to make more use of his ground game, leading him to a 2nd round submission victory.
Pick: Said Nurmagomedov wins by submission in Rd2.
Farès Ziam vs. Mike Davis
Fares Ziam has won four-fights in a row in the past two-and-a-half years and now faces Mike Davis, who is also unbeaten in his last four UFC bouts, albeit over a much longer five-and-a-half year period due to injuries.
Ziam is a 27-year-old kickboxer who prefers to fight at a measured pace from the outside, picking his moments to land with clean, accurate punches and kicks. He is defensively sound and likes to work from the clinch when at closer quarters, and it’s from there that he earned his first KO win in the Octagon last time out against Matt Frevola courtesy of a well-placed knee. Ziam also appeared to be operating with more purpose and intensity in that fight, which suggests he is evolving as a fighter. And his takedown defense and mat work has shown signs of improvement too, though he has been submitted three times in the past.
The 32-year-old Davis is a fighter who has delivered some good performances, but his struggles with injuries have hampered his opportunity to build real momentum during his time in the UFC. He is a powerful striker with good forward pressure who has earned 7 of his 11 wins via strikes. He can also wrestle when needed, which led to him securing one of his two career submission victories in his last fight.
While Davis poses a greater finishing threat on the feet, Ziam’s technical precision from range and overall progression as a fighter will help him to edge out a win on the scorecards here.
Pick: Fares Ziam wins by decision.
Prelims
Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli
Shamil Gaziev vs. Thomas Petersen
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Bolaji Oki
Terrance McKinney vs. Damir Hadžović
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Bogdan Grad vs. Lucas Alexander
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Jamal Pogues
