UFC Fight Night 289 takes place tomorrow night at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos

Raul Rosas Jr lands his first UFC main event spot after going on a five-fight winning streak, while his opponent Raoni Barcelos has also won five fights in a row.

Rosas Jr made history when he signed from the Contender Series at just 17-years-old. To his credit he’s since shown it wasn’t too-much, too-soon for him as two week shy of his 22nd birthday he’s now 6-1 in the UFC and ranked No.13 at 135lbs. He was physically strong and well-rounded for his age when he first arrived in the Octagon, particularly on the mat with powerful wrestling and assured grappling, and his game has matured since then. These days his striking isn’t as raw and he’s learned to pace himself better, rather than wearing himself out trying too hard to find a finish. That shift has allowed him to win rounds more consistently and has resulted in decision victories over veterans like Vince Morales and Rob Font. He is still a work in progress though, particularly on the feet, but given his age there’s still plenty of room left for steady development.

Barcelos is at the opposite end of his career at 39-years-old, but has defied the odds by navigating past a bad losing slump between 2021–2023 to go on a lengthy late-career winning run. And he’s not just been handed easy fights either as he handed highly rated prospect Payton Talbott his first loss, as well as beating the likes of Montel Jackson, Ricky Simon, and Cody Garbrandt too. He’s no longer as fast or relentless as in his prime, but Barcelos remains athletic, well‑rounded, and pushes a good pace. Barcelos mixes crafty, high‑volume striking with well‑timed takedowns, and on the mat he offers solid jiu‑jitsu and effective ground‑and‑pound. He also remains hard to finish, with just one loss to strikes and one by submission in his 14‑year career, and also has a good knack of doing enough to get the nod on the scorecards, winning 11 of his 14 fights that have gone to a decision, including in his last four bouts.

Picking a near‑40-year-old bantamweight to win against someone not far of 20-years his junior always carries risk, but Barcelos’ experience, better striking and competitive grappling give him a real chance here. Rosas Jr had cardio issues in his only career loss to date and has never fought five rounds before, and with Barcelos knowing how to push a good pace without gassing himself out I think he could find his way to a decision victory here.

Pick: Raoni Barcelos wins by decision.

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek

Rodolfo Vieira comes into this fight off two losses to fight Robert Bryczek, who has gone 1–2 in the UFC so far.

The just-turned 37-year-old Vieira remains one of the most credentialed grapplers on the roster. He’s finished nine of his 11 career wins by submissions, and his arm‑triangle in particular has become a go-to move during his UFC run, accounting for four of his five UFC stoppage wins. He has functional wrestling to get fights to the mat, but there’s not much to his striking beyond his jab, while his cardio is unreliable, and last year he suffered his first KO loss against Bo Nickal. As such, across his seven years in the UFC, he’s struggled to find consistency and has only manged to put together a 6-5 run.

The 36-year-old Bryczek brings a pressure‑heavy, aggressive style built around his physicality, heavy boxing combinations and mean ground‑and‑pound. That led to a run of success on the regional scene with a flurry of first‑round finishes earning him a UFC call‑up. However, at this level he’s found the going tougher, with a TKO win over Brad Tavares being bookended by two decision losses. It’s shown that while he does hit hard, he tends to overcommit to his strikes, while he can be taken down and controlled and doesn’t have the most convincing cardio either.

Bryczek is certainly the more potent striker here, but Viera’s ground game is clearly superior, and with Cam Rowston having considerable control time against Bryczek on the mat last time out I can see Vieira doing likewise on his way to a 2nd round submission finish.

Pick: Rodolfo Vieira wins by submission in Rd2.

Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura

Brady Hiestand returns after a long layoff after a three‑fight winning streak to fight Rinya Nakamura, who comes in off a win and a loss last year.

A runner-up on TUF 29 back in 2021 when he was just 22-years-old, Hiestand has been held back by injury woes in the years since. He damaged his ACL, meniscus and MCL while on the TUF show, leading to over a year out, and would go on to tear his ACL again in 2024 and then suffering a re-tear, leading to him having been sidelined for the past two-and-a-half years. It’s tough to bounce back from injuries like that, but physically and psychologically, so it’s hard to know how he’ll perform on Saturday night. Hiestand has never been a fighter that competes like he’s overly concerned about his safety though as despite not being the most technically polished striker he’s always willing to fire off strikes. In fact can be drawn into a full-on brawl, which is concerning as he has been hurt in fights. That being said, Hiestand also has a nice blend of wrestling and grappling that he does make use to his advantage.

The 31-year-old Nakamura won Road To UFC Season 1 and has gone 3–1 since. He’s an explosive athlete with a strong background in freestyle wrestling. He likes to strike though and has genuine finishing power, clocking up six finishes from 10 career wins, with most of those coming in the first round. He can be hit though, and his loss to Muin Gafurov showed he can lose his way when he’s not in the driving seat, but he did rebound from that defeat with a 62‑second TKO finish of Nathan Fletcher last time out.

Given Hiestand’s extensive injury history and long spell of inactivity, it’s tough to feel confident about his chances here. Nakamura also has the bigger power on the feet and good wrestling to help dictate where the fight happens, which I think leads him to a 2nd round TKO finish.

Pick: Rinya Nakamura wins by TKO in Rd2.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs. Ilimbek Akylbek uulu

The TUF 34 bantamweight final features Mehemmedeli Osmanli (11–1) taking on Illimbek Akybek Uulu (9–3).

The 22-year-old Osmanli Osmanli has been competing since he was 15 and has shown off his submission prowess by securing six of his 11 career wins on the mat. That doesn’t include his two victories on TUF, where he showed his natural self-confidence by calling out Daniel Cormier’s top pick and then tapping him out in the first round. He went one better next time out by pulling off an ultra-rare buggy choke submission in the semi-finals. That’s not all though as he he’s actually confident striking too and owns three TKO wins.

Uulu is only slightly older at 23, but brings more experience at a higher level, including a three-fight run in ONE FC. He’s a strong wrestling on top and also has five submission wins, but his striking is a weaker part of his game, and he was TKO’d twice in ONE FC. On TUF he leaned heavily on his wrestling grind out a split and a unanimous decision. Tensions then flared when he and fellow finalist Osmanli had to be separated after a heated exchange in training, which brings an extra element of rivalry to this match-up.

Osmanli is the better striker here and if that forces Uulu to wrestle I think he could find himself caught in a submission there too.

Pick: Mehemmedeli Osmanli wins by submission in Rd2.

Melissa Amaya vs. Valesca Machado

Melissa Amaya comes into the TUF 34 women’s strawweight final with an 8–0 record, while Valesca Machado has gone 15–4 in his career to date.

The 31-year-old Amaya wasn’t one of the leading picks coming into the season despite her undefeated record, but she made a strong impression by earning an upset win over Michael Bisping’s No.1 pick in the quarter-finals. She further enhanced her reputation by then surviving an absolutely brutal armbar in the semifinals that tore muscles in her limb, before rallying to win by TKO. She’s proven to have a balanced skill set, with capable striking, solid grappling, reliable cardio, and unquestionable mental toughness. She’s had more tha her fair share of physical setbacks though, from past knee injuries that derailed her track-and-field career, through to an ongoing SI joint problem that flared up during TUF.

The 30-year-old Machado has more experience under her belt, including numerous fights for Invicta FC, and even a Contender Series appearance back in 2021 that she lost by unanimous decision. She’s a fast, aggressive striker who throws frequent boxing combinations with good power that can trouble her opponents, while she also has strong clinch work too. She’s never been finished in 19 fights, but she doesn’t always get it her own way when going to the scorecards, with a 9-4 record on those occasions.

Amaya has made the most of her TUF run, but I think Machado’s more impactful offense, stronger physicality and durability will help her to a decision victory here.

Pick: Valesca Machado wins by decision.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Rodolfo Bellato vs. Christian Edwards
Luis Hernandez vs. Sedriques Dumas
Josiah Harrell vs. Elves Brener
Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simón
John Castañeda vs. Alateng Heili
Norma Dumont vs. Ailín Pérez
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui