Below you’ll find all our predictions for this weekend’s UFC On ESPN 61 event from Las Vegas.
Main Card
Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak
After submitting Tai Tuivasa earlier in the year, Marcin Tybura now headlines UFC On ESPN 61 in a rematch with Sergey Spivak, whose three-fight winning streak was ended last September when he was TKO’d by Ciryl Gane.
The 38-year-old Tybura emerges victorious by unanimous decision the first time these two heavyweights fought in February of 2020. Since then he’s continued to perform well, putting together a solid 7-2 run, although as has often been the case in his career, his two defeats came when he took on upper-tier talent in Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov. Tybura has the kind of solid but not spectacular set of skills that’s proved to be a thorn in the flesh of low to mid-tier heavyweights though, with a measured rather than reckless approach to striking that makes up for his relative lack of speed and power by sticking to solid fundamentals backed up by respectable cardio and durability, as well as being comfortable in the clinch and wrestling departments too.
Spivak finds himself in a similar spot as he’s also had a nice run of form in the years since they last fought, going 6-2, and also finds himself emerging with his hand raised against fighters of a certain level, but then coming up short against the division’s leading fighters like Aspinall and Ciryl Gane. Spivak does have time on his side though as he’s still just 29-years-old, which is relatively young for a heavyweight with this much experience. And he has shown signs of growing confidence and minor technical improvement over the years, though it has to be said he’s still quite heavy-footed and lacks finesse on the feet. He has found success on the mat though with good grappling and capable wrestling, which has led him to be more of a finisher than Tybura when it comes to submissions and ground-and-pound.
This could be one of those passing-the-torch moments where the younger man overcomes the veteran gatekeeper, but I still feel like Tybura has the better striking of the two and is good enough with his clinch and wrestling to stifle Spivak’s attempts to get his ground game going, so I’ll take Tybura to again beat him on the scorecards here.
Pick: Marcin Tybura wins by decision.
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Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal
Damon Jackson shook off back-to-back losses in 2023 when he earned a split-decision win over Alexander Hernandez in April and now he takes on Chepe Mariscal, who has won all three of his fights in the promotion.
Jackson celebrated his 36th birthday this week, so he’s starting to get up there in years, but he’s never been the most athletic fighter anyway, or the hardest hitting or durable, and instead has made the most of his grit and determination to push himself beyond his limitations. He will have a size advantage here though, being 4″ taller with an extra 2″ in reach. He likes apply a lot of pressure, both via striking and the threat of takedowns too, but can be too willing to get hit in the process, which has cost him at times, leading to four clean KO losses in his career. It can also work out well for him at times too though, particularly on the mat where he’s a threat either on top or off his back with his opportunistic submissions that have provided 15 finishes out of his overall total of 23 career wins.
The 31-year-old Mariscal gained a lot of experience on the regional scene before joining the UFC and actually fought some other fighters who’ve gone on to be established stars along the way, like Gregor Gillespie and Bryce Mitchell. He may have lost to them, but it’s helped prepare him for the big stage and he’s done well there so far. He is aggressive on the feet and hard-headed, though perhaps too much for his own good at times as he has been stopped a few times by strikes over the years. Mariscal is actually quite well-rounded too though, as he’s a solid wrestler and has good ground-and-pound, while he’s also never been submitted.
These are two action-orientated, strong-willed fighters, so it’ll be interesting to see who comes out on top. I think Jackson is a bit more crafty, but on the other hand Mariscal is heavier-handed, more durable and will be presented a target that’s not hard to hit, so I’ll take him to win by KO in the 2nd round.
Pick: Chepe Mariscal wins by KO in Rd2.
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Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
Danny Barlow won his UFC debut by TKO in February and now takes on Nikolay Veretennikov, who comes in as a short notice replacement for Uros Medic to make his UFC debut and holds a 12-4 record on the regional circuit.
A Contender Series recruit, the 29-year-old Barlow holds an 8-0 record and is both athletic and has a physical presence, being 2″ taller than Veretennikov with a sizeable 5″ reach advantage to go with it. He like to strike from range with impressive speed and big power in his hands, while he’ll also mix in some more dynamic strikes and has fast footwork too.
The 34-year-old Veretennikov is a former Fury FC champ and has competed for LFA too. He also had an opportunity on the Contender Series back in 2021 that didn’t go his way, though the fact that his opponent Michael Morales has gone on to put together a nice winning streak in the UFC since perhaps softens the blow a little. Veretennikov is a capable all-rounder, will try to apply pressure and has a good finishing record, with strikes accounting for 9 of his 12 victories.
Barlow is the faster, more athletic and more potent striker here, and when you factor in that Veretennikov also hasn’t had much time to prepare for his UFC debut I think Barlow emerges with another first round TKO finish here.
Pick: Danny Barlow wins by TKO in Rd1.
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Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler
Perhaps still better known as Yana Kunitskaya, but now going by the surname Santos, this UFC veteran is going to try to shake off a three-fight losing slump when she takes on Chelsea Chandler, who has gone 2-1 in the UFC so far.
The 34-year-old Santos hasn’t really been all that active over the past few years as she took 18 months out back in 2021 due to giving birth to her child with husband, UFC fighter Thiago Santos, and after suffering two losses upon her return has since been out for another year. Santos is an experienced fighter though at both 135lbs and 145lbs, primarily utilizing an active taekwondo influenced striking style at range along with being quite strong in the clinch too.
The 30-year-old Chandler is only eight fights into her MMA career. She’s quite rough-and-ready on the feet and so tries to make up for lack of clean technique with aggression, while not showing much in the way of defense. She’ll battle her way into the clinch and try to bully opponents with her wrestling as well as capable grappling, though she only has one submission win on her record so far.
I think there’s a real chance this fight could get stuck in the clinch a lot as they largely cancel each other out, but overall I think Santos’ experience and more effective striking will enable her to eek out a decision win.
Pick: Yana Santos wins by decision.
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Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le
Chris Gutierrez managed to go unbeaten in eight UFC fights by the start of 2023, but has hit some turbulence since with decision losses in two of his last three fights. Now he’ll take on the undefeated Quang Le, who comes in to make his UFC debut as a replacement for Javid Basharat on just a week’s notice.
The 33-year-old Gutierrez works well from range with good volume and accuracy and he’s known to have very good low kicks in particular that can make life difficult for his opponents. Another plus point is the fact that he’s quite defensively sound and that’s helped ensure he’s not been finished via strikes in his 27 fight career so far. Gutierrez doesn’t tend to wrestle much, but is able to operate on the mat when required.
Le is 32-year-old, but actually only turned professional in 2021 after several years on the amateur circuit. He hit the ground running though, going 8-0 since while fighting mostly for the LFA promotion, including two 1st round finishes via strikes this year so far. That being said, overall in his career to date he’s been more likely to stop opponents via submissions than strikes, though he does clearly have power.
Le is at an immediate disadvantage here given the short-notice nature of the fight, and it’s even tougher to make an impact when going up against a dependable, hard-to-beat performer like Gutierrez. As such I’d rule out the likelihood of Le continuing his recent run of quick finishes here, and instead I think he’ll find the going progressively tougher as the rounds go on with Gutierrez being the one controlling the striking action, leading him to a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Chris Gutierrez wins by decision.
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Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou
Two fighters who have yet to get a win in the UFC get a chance to feature on the main card here thanks to the line-up having been ravaged by call-offs in recent days. Toshiomi Kazama was KO’d in 33 seconds by Rinya Nakamura in the ‘Road To UFC’ final that marked his UFC debut, and has since also been TKO’d in the 1st round by Garrett Armfield. Meanwhile, Charalampos Grigoriou made his way to the UFC via the Contender Series last year, but lost by unanimous decision in his UFC debut in March.
Adding to concerns about Kazama’s durability, the 27-year-old was also KO’d by a flying knee in his last fight on the regional scene before making being chosen for a spot on ‘Road To UFC’, so there’s a lot of pressure on him here. Kazama is perhaps too aggressive on the feet for his own good which can run him into trouble, though he is a threat offensively. However, Kazama’s grappling is his best weapon with a good submission game and he also has a judo background too in order to help aid his attempts to get the fight to the mat.
The 32-year-old Grigoriou is an impactful striker who has good power in his punches and lands damaging leg kicks too, and while he is guilty of loading up too much on his strikes he has finished 6 of his 8 wins via strikes. Grigoriou is also able to wrestle too and so far in his career hasn’t been submitted, but his early exertions can take a toll on his cardio in the later rounds.
It would be nice for Kazama to be able to show what he can do on the mat, but I’m not so sure that’s how this fight plays out, with it being more likely that he puts himself in harm’s way on the feet in the opening round and gives Grigoriou the opportunities he needs to finish him in the first five minutes.
Pick: Charalampos Grigoriou wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad
Jhonata Diniz vs. Karl Williams
Youssef Zalal vs. Jarno Errens
Stephanie Luciano vs. Talita Alencar
