UFC On ESPN 64 takes place tomorrow night in Mexico City and we’ve got all our predictions for you below.
Main Card
Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno picked up a win last time out to shake off a couple of split-decision losses and now goes up against Steve Erceg, who was defeated in his title challenge last year and was then TKO’d in his next fight.
There had been some concern that the 31-year-old Moreno had become jaded after a lot of tough fights in recent years, but he dispelled that notion in his last fight with Amir Albazi, looking back to his best as he ended his opponent’s five-fight unbeaten run. Moreno has a very well-rounded skill-set and possesses the kind of intensity, conditioning and durability that makes him very hard to beat. His pressure-heavy boxing has always been a strong point for him and he is very comfortable trading strikes and confident in his chin, having gone toe-to-toe with the best in the division without ever being finished. Moreno blends his striking well with his solid wrestling, and he’s an assured grappler too, who has 11 submission wins on his record and is also defensively sound.
The 29-year-old Erceg was regarded more as a talented grappler with good wrestling when he first arrived in the UFC back in 2023 clutching a string of submission wins to his name. However, the unassuming Erceg then went on to put together a three-fight winning streak that also showcased the fact that he had a very capable striking game too, showing off good accuracy, distance management and composure when he exchanges. Still, it was a bit surprising when he was fast-tracked to a title-shot so early in his UFC run, but he gave a good account of himself in a defeat to current champ Alexandre Pantoja, only to then suffer the disappointment of being TKO’d by Kai-France inside of a round last summer.
Erceg has a lot going for him, but coming off a couple of losses it’s not ideal to have to go up against a top-tier talent like Moreno next. I do expect the fight to be competitive though, but I think Moreno’s drive and aggressive intensity in all aspects of the fight will help him to gradually edge ahead in this fight, and eventually lead him to a fourth round TKO finish.
Pick: Brandon Moreno wins by TKO in Rd4.
Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober
Manuel Torres started his UFC run with three wins, but was then TKO’d in the 1st round last September. Now he goes up against Drew Dober, who has lost in his last two trips to the Octagon.
The 30-year-old Torres is a fighter who goes all out for the finish with an aggressive, high-volume striking game that utilizes plenty of kicks backed up by fast punches to overwhelm his opponents. Torres is equally willing to go submission-hunting too though and so his 14 career finishes are equally divided between strikes and submissions. And remarkably, in his 15-3 career to date, Torres has actually only gone past the first round once.
The 36-year-old Dober is a battling, heavy-handed striker who also likes to impose his will on his opponents with forward pressure and puts everything into his power punches, and the results speak for themselves as his last seven wins came via either KO or TKO. Dober also has good cardio and during his career has been recognised for being able to withstand a lot of punishment, but Matt Frevola did manage to TKO him in the first round in 2023, and last time out Jean Silva also TKO’d him, though that was due to a bad cut. Dober also has problems when the fight goes beyond just striking as his takedown defense is suspect and he has been finished by submission several times.
Both fighters have big power and are hittable, so this could one go either way. Torres does also have the advantage on the mat though, and with the cracks perhaps beginning to show for Dober after three losses in his last four fights I’m tentatively taking Torres to battle it out on the feet in the opening five minutes, but then switch things up to win by submission in the 2nd round.
Pick: Manuel Torres wins by submission in Rd2.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
After losing six of his previous eight fights, Kelvin Gastelum got a win under his belt in his only UFC appearance last year. Now he fights Joe Pyfer, who has gone 4-1 since arriving from the Contender Series.
At 33-years-old, Gastelum is back up at middleweight after a brief interlude at welterweight was again aborted due to the weight-cutting issues that also thwarted his previous run there years ago. You can see why Gastelum wanted to go back down because he doesn’t have the right body type for 185lbs, with his short, stocky build and limited reach meaning he’ll be at a 5″ height and 4″ reach disadvantage on Saturday night. Despite that, Gastelum has proven to have speed on his side in this weight class, reasonable power and impressive durability, having still never been stopped by strikes. He’s a fighter who doesn’t appear to have really developed over the years skill-wise, so his striking can be quite predictable, but he benefits from having fast hand-speed.
The 28-year-old Pyfer isn’t the flashiest striker either, but he has solid boxing fundamentals and possesses thumping power in his fists, with a fast KO finish of Marc Andre Barriault last time out being his 9th stoppage win via strikes from 13 career victories. Pyfer has also shown a willingness to utilize wrestling to get the fight to the mat at times, and has a competent grappling game too that’s already led to a victory by submission in the Octagon.
Gastelum is still very tough, but he’s getting to that stage where he’s not quite as quick on his feet or fast to the punch, and so I think the harder-hitting Pyfer will have the better moments in the stand-up action here, landing some big punches along the way, but then have to settle for a decision win.
Pick: Joe Pyfer wins by decision.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales
Raul Rosas Jr has gone unbeaten in his last three fights and now takes on Vince Morales, who made a comeback to the UFC last year, but has gone on to lose twice.
Rosas Jr immediately grabbed headlines in the UFC by becoming the youngest fighter ever at 18 after signing from the contender series. He’s now 20 years-old and holds a 4-1 record in the promotion, but is sensibly still not being pushed too much by the matchmaker as he’s still a work-in-progress. Rosas is physically strong and has good skill and control in the grappling department, while he’s also a solid wrestler too. His striking has been less convincing, but he is now showing encouraging signs of some technical improvement improvement. He is still a fighter who struggles to pace himself effectively though, and while going full-steam ahead is still working out for him in most cases, it’s something he will have to become more strategic with as he faces better quality opposition.
The 34-year-old Morales had a previous run in the UFC that began in 2018, but after only mustering a 3-5 campaign he was released in 2022. However, Morales then went on a five-fight winning streak in other promotions he was given a second-chance in the UFC that so far hasn’t gone his way, losing twice on the scorecards. Morales is a capable all-rounder though who uses his boxing to seek out counter-striking opportunities, while he can also wrestle and has shown some versatility in his submission game over the years. Morales is less convincing defensively than offensively and also can take time to work his way into fights at times, leaving him with a patchy 16-9 record overall.
I think this is a fight where Rosas fast-starting approach will be advantageous, and his grappling control will give him the edge he needs to ensure he emerges with a decision win.
Pick: Raul Rosas Jr wins by decision.
David Martínez vs. Saimon Oliveira
David Martinez brings an 11-1 record to the Octagon as he gets ready for his UFC debut, while fellow Contender Series recruit has lost both his fights in the promotion so far, leaving his record at 18-5.
The 26-year-old Martinez should be a fun addition to the UFC ranks as he’s a talented striker with a dynamic muay-thai striking game that’s already produced 9 finishes from 11 career wins. He fires off fast-kicks, has substantial power in his punches and also has the ability to effectively execute more exotic techniques, such as the spinning wheel kick KO he delivered in his final Combate fight before making it to the Contender Series. That knockout came in the fourth round, highlighting the fact that he is able to pace himself and remain dangerous from the first round to the last. Martinez also has shown good takedown defense, but we don’t have much to go on in terms of his ground game yet.
Before this fight even starts the 33-year-old Oliveira has a number of concerns given that he hasn’t fought in two years, is coming off a knockout defeat and has yet to prove he belongs in the promotion by earning a victory. Stylistically this fight is a known quantity for him though in that he too has a muay thai striking style, although he’s not as dangerous as Oliveira, and while he also likes to mix in eye-catching techniques, he’s more reckless with them. Oliveira does seemingly have an advantage over Martinez on the mat though as though he’s not much of a wrestler he does have proven submission ability, accounting for 11 of his 18 victories so far.
I think Oliveira’s lack of wrestling will make it difficult to get Martinez down though, and with Martinez being much more effective and potent with his striking I think he’ll earn a 2nd round TKO finish here, if not earlier.
Pick: David Martinez wins by TKO in Rd2.
Ronaldo Rodríguez vs. Kevin Borjas
Ronaldo Rodriguez is 2-0 in the UFC so far and now opens the main card of Saturday night’s show opposite Kevin Borjas, who by way of contrast is 0-2.
The 25-year-old Rodriguez has so far proven to be a well-conditioned fighter with a solid skill-set. He’s not the most mobile or active striker, but he will apply pressure and look to counter-strike with good power, while also having good durability. Rodriguez is also a decent wrestler and has already found some success with his grappling game by clocking up a rear-naked choke win in his UFC debut.
The 27-year-old Borjas is focused more firmly on his striking and also likes to pressure, but has more of a volume-orientated approach that paid off for him on the regional circuit, with eight wins coming from strikes. He doesn’t have much of a ground game though, which is concerning.
Rodriguez may look to gradually work his way into this fight on the feet and look to land his heavier punches on the counter, but I think it’s his advantage on the mat that will eventually be his path to victory, leading to a second round submission win.
Pick: Ronaldo Rodriguez wins by submission in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Édgar Cháirez vs. C.J. Vergara
José Daniel Medina vs. Ateba Abega Gautier
Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa
Loopy Godinez vs. Julia Polastri
Rafa García vs. Vinc Pichel
Jamall Emmers vs. Gabriel Miranda
MarQuel Mederos vs. Austin Hubbard
