UFC On ESPN 70 takes place this coming Saturday night in Tennessee and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira
It’s been over a year since Derrick Lewis’ last fight, a third round TKO win over Rodrigo Nascimento, and now he returns to headline Saturday night’s event against Tallison Teixeira, who is unbeaten in his 8-0 career so far, including a quick TKO win in his UFC debut early in the year.
Now 40-years-old, Lewis may be coming off a win, but in general his form hasn’t been overly convincing in recent years, having gone just 3-5 since 2021, which includes three losses by T(KO) and one by submission. Lewis’ famed punching power is still very much in play though as he currently holds the record for most knockouts in UFC history after racking up 15 finishes via strikes. These days it tends to be lower tier opponents like Rodrigo Nascimento, Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Chris Daukus that fall victim to his knockout blows though, while better opposition has been able to either get the better of him on the mat or take advantage of his aging chin. Lewis’ cardio has always been an issue, and with age and injuries that’s not going to get any better, but he does still have a knack for being able to unleash sporadic moments of dangerous offense even when he looks completely spent.
15 years ‘The Black Beast’s’ junior, the 25-years-old Teixeira is still very young by heavyweight division standards, where the entire Top 10 rankings consist of fighters in their 30’s or older. With that in mind it’ll be interesting to see how far Teixeira is able to go in the end as he certainly has a good physical base to work from, being 6ft 7″ tall with an 83″ wingspan. Teixeira has also shown he’s a big threat on the feet by winning seven of his eight wins so far via strikes in the first round, including a KO win in his sole Contender Series fight and then a 35 second TKO stoppage of Justin Tafa in his UFC debut. Teixeira uses his long limbs to good effect, working in knees and elbows in with his punches and kicks, and he does have a black belt in BJJ too. While he is undefeated there are still concerns though as he doesn’t do a good job of protecting his chin, and we’ve no idea at this stage how he’ll look if he has to fight beyond the first round.
Teixeira has passed ever test so far with flying colors, but this is a big step up in competition, and while he shows a lot of promise for the future, I do fear this could be a painful lesson for him that he needs to tighten up his defense, as Lewis will only need one big punch to end the fight, and I do think he’ll find the younger man’s exposed chin here to win by first round KO.
Pick: Derrick Lewis wins by KO in Rd1.
Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim
Stephen Thompson is coming off four losses in his last five fights as he now prepares to fight Gabriel Bonfim, who has taken his career record to 17-1 after winning his last two UFC fights.
At 42-years-old, Thompson is now at the twilight stage of his career and his recent results have showed that, including being KO’d by Joaquin Buckey back in October of last year. That being said, as a disciplined fighter with elite striking credentials, ‘Wonderboy’ has withstood the test of time better than most, continuing to remain in good physical condition, while still being able to effortlessly unleash kicks to all levels as well as having very good fight IQ and distance management. However, his finely-tuned fighting style does rely on fast reflexes, speed and timing, and even a slight decline in those attributes can have consequences, making it more difficult to steer clear of incoming strikes than it used to be, and meanwhile his takedown defense seems to be weakening too.
At 27, Bonfim is in his prime years with a well developed set of his skills. His strongest suit is on the mat as he’s a very assured grappler who already has 13 submission finishes in his career, proving to be particularly adept with chokes, and he also has the wrestling ability to get the fight where he wants it. That being said, Bonfim is also more than willing to work on the feet with his pressure and high-tempo technical kickboxing, piecing together his combinations well with good speed. In general cardio has not been too much of a factor for Bonfim, though he did fall into the trap of expending all his energy trying to finish the very tough Nicolas Dalby a couple of years ago, which resulted in his only career loss. He’s bounced back from that well since though.
We’re likely at that stage now where any fight Thompson takes could potentially be his last, and with that in mind this isn’t perhaps the kind of match-up he’d be hoping for, as Bonfim’s pace, pressure and clear advantage in terms of wrestling and grappling means he won’t have the kind of space he likes to operate from, and instead will have to focus more on defending takedowns. And I think he may struggle to stop Bonfim from bringing him to the mat, at which point I think a 2nd round submission finish will follow.
Pick: Gabriel Bonfim wins by submission in Rd2.
Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia
Calvin Kattar is in the midst of a four-fight losing slump ahead of his next fight against Steve Garcia, who is at a completely different stage in his career having won five fights in a row.
It’s been a tough time for the 37-year-old Kattar as he also had to contend with an 18-month layoff due to an ACL injury during the past few years as well, but he can perhaps take some solace from the fact that his defeats came against high-level fighters like Josh Emmett, Arnold Allen, Aljamain sterling and most recently Youssef Zalal. Kattar is still a tough fighter though who has only been finished once in his career, and that was due to the knee injury that caused his ACL layoff. That being said, it could be argued that he’s been too tough for his own good at times, most notably in a brutal one-sided, five-round beatdown against Max Holloway in 2021. On the plus side Kattar is a good boxer who has respected power and has the cardio to push a hard pace for as long as the fight lasts. Kattar also has solid takedown defense to keep the fight where he wants it, but that means he’ s not much of a threat when the action does hit the mat.
The 33-year-old Garcia is a big featherweight who thrives on his aggressive, yet still accurate volume-striking. He tends to put everything into his punches and has hard-hitting ground-and-pound as well. That’s worked out well for him up to this point as he’s racked up five stoppage wins in the UFC so far, and 14 of his 17 career victories overall have come via strikes. Things haven’t always gone Garcia’s way though as he has been beaten twice in the UFC and also twice during a stint in the Bellator promotion earlier in his career too, and he can be outwrestled at times.
There’s certainly a path for both fighters to win here in what should be a competitive scrap. Kattar is the tidier striker of the two and has proven to be very durable, but he has been in a lot of wars now and he’s at the age where that could start to take it’s toll. As such, with Garcia likely to start faster and draw him into a hard-hitting, high-intensity battle, I think it’s he who will keep his current momentum going by emerging with a 2nd round TKO victory here.
Pick: Steve Garcia wins by TKO in Rd2.
Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere
Nate Landwehr has the home advantage in his native Tennessee on Saturday night as both he and Morgan Charriere come into their fight having gone 1-2 in their last three fights.
The 37-year-old Landwehr has been known to be a crowd-pleaser due to his all-action style that sees him continually take the fight to his opponent with high-volume attacks, showing a willingness to eat punches to land even more of his own. It seemed like a style that was too careless to work in the UFC, and indeed he was finished in the first round via strikes twice in the early stages of his UFC run, before going on a surprising three-fight winning streak that showed he can be a little more technical sometimes in addition to having some decent submission ability too. However, his form has since declined again and he was TKO’d in his last Octagon outing.
The 29-year-old Charriere is a competent kickboxer who likes to keep the fight on the feet, though he does actually have a black belt in judo and respectable grappling game. Charriere is quite measured with his output, but he is quick, accurate and agile when he does attack, with proving punching power and good kicks to all levels, leading to 12 finishes via strikes form 20 career victories. The downside though is that he can be overly patient at times, which can lead to him losing rounds due to a lack of activity, and he’s paid the price for that at times as 10 of his 11 career defeats came on the scorecards.
There’s a clear contrast in styles in this match-up, pitting Landwehr’s high-volume aggression against Charriere’s more calculated but powerful counter-striking. It could well be that Landwehr’s approach and durability helps him to win rounds and hand his opponent another decision loss, but I think Charriere will find plenty of openings here to land his potent counters, and so I’m taking him to deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Morgan Charriere wins by TKO in Rd2.
Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane
After two losses in a row, Vitor Petrino now moves up to heavyweight to face Austen Lane, who has lost four of his five fights in the UFC.
The 27-year-old Petrino made an instant impression at the start of his UFC run with four victories taking his record to 10-0, but his momentum has since faltered after back-to-back defeats, making up his mind that it’s time to fulfil an ambition to compete at heavyweight. Petrino has very good power and respectable counter-striking ability, while he’s shown that he can work in takedown attempts and implement a hard-hitting ground-and-pound game too. Most of the muscular Petrino’s game operates off his natural strength and power though, and that can take a toll on his cardio, and that leaves a question-mark about how he’ll perform with more weight on his frame.
The 37-year-old Lane is in a bad spot at the moment as not only is he in a losing slump, but he’s also been KO’d in three of his last four fights. That’d be concerning for any fighter, but given that he’s also a former NFL player before he came to the UFC, he was likely already no stranger to concussions. Lane is still a big and athletic fighter though and he’ll have a significant size advantage here, being 4″ taller with an extra 3″ in reach. And it’s Lane’s physicality and power that tend to be his calling card, having won 11 of his 13 career wins via strikes, but he’s not found success making that work during his time in the UFC, with his weak defense, suspect chin and limited ground skills all being significant issues.
Petrino isn’t the most polished striker, but he’s still more skillful than Lane and is better on the mat than him too. And given how weakened Lane’s chin appears to be at this stage I do think Petrino has the punching power to find a 1st round KO finish here.
Pick: Vitor Petrino wins by KO in Rd1.
Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos
Despite winning his last heavyweight by TKO, Junior Tafa has opted to move down to light-heavyweight for his next Octagon appearances against Tuco Tokkos, who is 0-2 in the promotion.
Tafa is a former kickboxer who even had a stint in the Glory promotion, though that delivered mixed results, going 3-4 there. His MMA run has been something of a mixed bag too, including his recent 2-3 stint in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He’ll now hope for more consistency at 205lbs, and a positive sign is that he appears to have got himself in good shape for his divisional debut. Despite his past experience, Tafa isn’t the most technical or flashy kickboxer, but he’s not just a brawler either and does have good punching power, together with heavy leg kicks and has finished all six of his career wins via strikes. He’s not got much of a ground game though and has been finished once via strikes and once by submission during his UFC run.
The story of the 35-year-old Tokkos’ career so far is that he’s been able to find some success on regional promotions, but has come up short when stepping up to the big leagues, having previously gone 0-2 during a stint in Bellator five years ago, and now going winless in his two UFC fights as well. Tokkos is an aggressive striker with brawling instincts that often leave him overcommitting on his power punches, which quickly becomes problematic against more skilled opposition. Tokkos does also have a couple of submission wins to his name, but Oumar Sy was able to submit him inside of a round in his UFC debut.
Tafa’s heavyweight run doesn’t suggest he’s going to make too much of an impact at 205lbs, but physically it seems like the right weight class for him and I certainly favor him over Tokkos, who doesn’t appear to be a UFC level fighter and should be TKO’d by the 2nd round here.
Pick: Junior Tafa wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis
Jake Matthews vs. Chidi Njokuani
Lauren Murphy vs. Eduarda Moura
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Valter Walker
Mitch Ramirez vs. Mike Davis
Fatima Kline vs. Melissa Martinez
