UFC On ESPN 65 Predictions

UFC On ESPN 65 takes place tomorrow in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy

Josh Emmett won his last fight with Bryce Mitchell by KO, but that was 17 months ago. Now he returns to fight the unbeaten Lerone Murphy, who has put together 7 wins and a draw during his time in the UFC so far.

The recently turned 40-year-old Emmett took last year off to let his body recover after having suffered a lot of injury issues over the years. A former interim-title challenger in the division, Emmett is known for being very heavy-handed by 145lb division standards, particularly with his powerful overhand right. There’s not a whole lot of variety to his striking, but his commitment to landing hard punches, together with having good conditioning and generally having solid durability has served him well. He also has a good wrestling game, though he tends to just use that to keep the fight standing.

Murphy is still an athletic specimen at 33-years-old and makes good use of his technical boxing ability to land swift, accurate punches (aided by a 3″ height and reach advantage here), will mix in kicks and knees and stays mobile with good footwork. Murphy has good fight IQ and can change his approach depending on how things are going, but generally he’s the type of fighter who is content to outland his opponent over the entirety of a fight rather than wading in looking for a finishing blow. Murphy is also well-rounded enough that he can work for takedowns and he has solid ground-and-pound, but though he can grapple too he’s yet to register a submission win.

Emmett’s punching power and tenacity will always make him a threat, but he’s really getting up there in years now, and it’s tough to continue to compete at the highest level in the lighter weight classes where speed, reactions and cardio are so crucial. Those are qualities the younger Murphy certainly has, and as a calculated striker who can operate from range and stay defensively sound I think he can get the better of the exchanges in a competitive fight to edge his way to a decision win.

Pick: Lerone Murphy wins by decision.

Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito

After a winning run to start his time in the UFC, Pat Sabatini has now settled into a pattern of ‘win one, lose one’ in his last four fights as he now gets ready to face Joanderson Brito, whose own five-fight winning streak came to an end with a split-decision loss to William Gomis.

The 34-year-old Sabatini shines on the mat with good wrestling and and an even better grappling game that offers him good control and has led to 12 submission finishes from 19 career victories. The problem for Sabatini is that he’s less convincing on the feet, and his durability has become a concern after his two latest defeats both came via 1st round TKO, so he prefers to get the fight to the mat early and often.

The 30-year-old Brito is an athletic fighter with a well-developed all-round game that enables him to pursue finishes wherever the fight goes. And he’s had good success in doing so, with 15 of his 17 wins being by either strikes or submission over the years. On the feet he fights with intensity, showcasing fast hands and footwork and good power, though he can be a bit overzealous at times. It’s a similar story elsewhere as he’s happy to commit to his wrestling and is an active grappler who will hunt for choke-based submissions and is comfortable scrambling.

Sabatini is the more composed grappler of the two, which could enable him to capitalize on mistakes from Brito’s more aggressive mistakes. That being said, I think Brito can be competitive there, but will likely seek to keep the fight upright where he has a big advantage, and will make that count with a 1st round TKO finish.

Pick: Joanderson Brito wins by TKO in Rd1.

Cortavious Romious vs. Lee Chang-ho

Contender Series recruit Cortavious Romious is coming off a loss in his UFC debut, while Lee Chang-Ho makes his second appearance after winning the ‘Road To UFC’ Season 2 in his debut last year.

Romious took two attempts to make it to the UFC after suffered a 29 second TKO loss in his Contender Series debut in 2023. He fared better in his second fight last year though in order to get signed. The 31-year-old is only 5ft 4″, but packs a lot of muscle into his stocky, athletic frame and utilizes that to fire off strikes with speed and power. He’s had to learn the hard way not to just give into his brawling instincts though, which put him at risk and compromised his cardio. And Romious actually often prefers to grapple anyway, having six wins on his record, including the last three coming via armbar. That being said, he can be a bit too willing to work off his back and risk losing rounds when a finish isn’t forthcoming.

Lee is 30-years-old and has a respectable 10-1 record, but upon close scrutiny he hasn’t always had it all his own way in the fights he’s won up to this point. Lee doesn’t have a significant striking game and instead will look to close the distance to clinch up and work for strikes and takedowns from there. He has solid offensive wrestling and hard ground-and-pound, together with capable grappling – albeit with only one submission win to his name. Defensively he’s less effective though and can be outwrestled at times, but he is well conditioned and has a knack for finding a way to emerge victorious in the long run.

The fact that Lee has already had to work hard to stay in the win column against regional fighters doesn’t inspire confidence. That being said, Romious is flawed too and given Lee’s better cardio and ability to grind out a win if required I think he can take Romious down and stifle him to get the nod on the scorecards.

Pick: Lee Chang-Ho wins by decision.

Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Brad Tavares has only managed to win once in his last five fights and now faces a fellow veteran in Gerald Meerschaert, who is 2-3 in his last five fights.

The 37-year-old Tavares has never been a big star in the UFC, but for a long time his steady, competent, but unremarkable cardio kickboxing style, respectable jab and solid takedown defense helped him put together a solid win-to-loss ratio and stick around in the promotion for the long haul. It’s always felt like he’s struggled to really switch up the gears though to take him to the next level, suffering from a distinct lack of a finishing threat that’s left him with only two stoppage wins in his entire 15-year UFC career. And now time is catching up to him as he’s starting to slow down enough that he’s a bit easier to hit and to take down, and two of his last three losses in the past couple of years have been via TKO.

Meerschaert is the same age as Tavares, and while he’s not been in the UFC for as long as him, he’s still been competing in the octagon for 9 years and is 18 years into his career in total. With 55 fights in total that means Meerschaert has a ton of miles on the clock, but his patchy form of late is not something new as that’s always the way his 12-10 stint in the UFC has gone. Meerschaert has never been the most athletic or durable fighter on the roster, but he’s been savvy enough to make the most of his sill-set and cardio. He likes to operate from distance on the feet, mostly using kicks, and counters pressure by looking to time takedowns, which paves the way to utilizing a crafty grappling game that’s led him to no less than 29 submission finishes from 37 total victories over the course of his career.

I think in this clash of veterans it might favor Tavares stylistically as he is the better striker technically and Meerschaert doesn’t have the speed or power to trouble him too much. And due to Tavares being happy to work on the outside and not being aggressive in his approach I think Meerschaert may struggle to work in takedowns, leading to a point-fighting striking match from range that will lead Tavares to win a relatively dull fight on the scorecards.

Pick: Brad Tavares wins by decision.

Torrez Finney vs. Robert Valentin

The 10-0 Torrez Finney had to win three fights on the Contender Series before finally being awarded a UFC contract. Now he makes his debut by fighting Robert Valentin, who was TKO’d in his promotional debut last year to go 10-4 overall.

The 26-year-old Finney has an unusual build in that he’s a short but very muscular 185lber, yet also has a respectable 75″ reach, meaning that though he’s 7″ smaller than Valentin, he’s only giving up a couple of inches in reach. Finney isn’t all that technical of a striker, but he certainly has the kind of explosive speed and power that can make him a threat. He also uses his physicality to help force fights to the mat with his wrestling, and he can make a big impact with his ground-and-pound. So far 7 of his wins have come via strikes, but he doesn’t have to get a finish to emerge on top as he also has a couple of decision wins in the bag too.

By way of contrast the 30-year-old Valentin is 6ft 2″ tall and has a lean build. Valentin’s striking is a bit of an oddity as he lacks some fundamentals to bring structure to his offense, and tends to favor kicks and elbows. Valentin will look to wrestle and his grappling is his most effective weapon, accounting for 6 of his 10 wins, while he has solid ground-and-pound too.

Despite his size disadvantage Finney’s fast enough to get in to land his strikes and while he’ll need to be careful of Valentin’s submission threat I think he can win the wrestling battle too in order to win via decision.

Pick: Torrez Finney wins by decision.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Martin Buday vs. Uran Satybaldiev
Ode’ Osbourne vs. Luis Gurule
Davey Grant vs. Daniel Santos
Diana Belbiţă vs. Dione Barbosa
Rhys McKee vs. Daniel Frunza
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Istela Nunes
Victor Henry vs. Pedro Falcão
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Talita Alencar