UFC On ESPN 69 takes place tomorrow night in Atlanta, Georgia and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
Kamaru Usman will attempt to break out of a three-fight losing slump when he fights Joaquin Buckley, who has now won six fights in a row over the past couple of years.
Prior to his latest defeats Usman had won his previous 19 fights in a row, so this is very much unchartered territory for him. The last-minute KO loss to Leon Edwards that ended his title reign at 170lbs was certainly a bitter pill to swallow given that he’d been winning the fight up to that point, but it’s worth noting that Usman only lost their rematch by majority decision, and was also defeated by the same narrow margin in a fight up at middleweight against Khamzat Chimaev. That suggests that he’s still a tough fight for anyone, even if the results haven’t been going his way. It’s been 20 months since he last fought though, and so he’s now 38-years-old and has been known to be dealing with knee issues for years now. He’s an excellent wrestler, but doesn’t use that as much these days, while he kicks less too, and does seem a bit more susceptible to getting hurt in his fights now. He’s still a very well-rounded fighter overall though, has solid striking fundamentals that focus more on volume than all-out power, and he can work effectively from the clinch too.
The 31-year-old Buckley is a muscular yet agile fighter with explosive striking ability that enabled him to rack up some stunning highlight-reel finishes early in his UFC career. Buckley was suffering a few losses to strikes along the way though and there was a sense he could end up settling for being an entertaining but flawed fighter who wouldn’t be able to stay consistent enough to make a serious push up the rankings. However, Buckley had other ideas and made a concerted effort to refine his game, pacing himself better and mixing in some offensive wrestling too, giving him more options to win a fight even if he couldn’t find the big finish he was hoping for. And the results speak for themselves as winning has now become a habit and he’s still getting more than his fair share of knockout wins. And with victories over Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque in the last year alone, it’s clear he’s now a threat to anyone in the division.
While Buckley’s cardio management is better these days he’s still yet to go beyond the third round in a fight, and Usman may see that as a window of opportunity. However, to do so he has to first survive the early rounds against a much harder-hitting, faster and more versatile striker, and that could be a tall order. I can see Buckley landing heavy kicks to Usman’s legs early in the fight, while looking for an opening to land a finishing blow, and I do think there’s a good chance he does just that by the third round to win by TKO.
Pick: Joaquin Buckley wins by TKO in Rd3.
Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick
Ex-115lb champ Rose Namajunas has so far been unsuccessful in her attempts to push for title contention at 125lbs, with the latest setback being a decision loss to Erin Blanchfield. Nevertheless, she’ll now stay in the division to take on Miranda Maverick, who has won her last four fights.
Ever since a lackluster performance in her title-losing rematch with Carla Esparza in 2022 it feels like Namajunas hasn’t been quite the same fighter. A move up to flyweight afterwards likely has something to do with that as she lacks power and physicality in this division. At the same time there’s also a question over the 32-year-old’s mentality too as her offensive volume has dwindled and she seems more cautious and less determined to succeed than she was in her prime. She is still a talented fighter though with clean, accurate striking ability and good footwork, while she continues to be a crafty grappler, albeit with more of an emphasis on control than submission-hunting, despite that having previously having been a strong point of her game.
The 27-year-old Maverick went 4-3 during her first three years in the UFC, but has since managed to stay in the win column over the past couple of years. IHowever, it should be noted that she’s not faced a ranked opponent during her current unbeaten run, so this is a big step up in competition for her. Maverick has good physicality that benefits both her wrestling and clinch-work, while she also likes to grapple and has won almost half of her fights via submission. She lacks that kind of a finishing threat on the feet though, and while she has a solid set of skills overall, she has had a tendency in the past to come off second-best when taking a step up in competition.
Namajunas may have lost some of her spark in recent years, but I think she’s still skilled enough to emerge victorious here as she’s the significantly better technical striker of the two here, and while her opponent’s strength may be a concern, Namajunas is also the slicker grappler too, so I’ll take her to eek out a decision win here.
Pick: Rose Namajunas wins by decision.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski
Edmen Shahbazyan started the year with a 1st round TKO victory and now fights Andre Petroski, who is on a three-fight winning streak.
The 27-year-old Shahbazyan is a fighter who has been trapped in a cycle of winning a fight and then losing the next for a few years now. Shahbazyan arrived in the UFC at a young age showing a lot of potential with his hard-hitting offensive weaponry and good finishing instincts that often led to him breaking down opponents in the first half of the fight. However, as time went on it became clear that if he didn’t find that finish then he had a tendency to run out of steam and become vulnerable to being finished himself. And unlike this event’s headliner Joaquin Buckley, Shahbazyan has never seemed to be able to figure out a way to address those weaknesses and become more consistent. As such, aside from a solitary decision win in his UFC debut nearly 7 years ago, Shahbayzyan’s entire consists of either having won fights in the first round-and-a-half, or losing every bout that went beyond that point.
The 33-year-old Petroski has gone 8-2 in the UFC so far thanks to being a relatively solid all-rounder. Petroski is physically strong and is at his best when he’s using his wrestling ability, but he has worked to improve other aspects of his game over time. As such he’s a competent grappler and has has developed better striking fundamentals, though there’s still concerns about his defense and durability after he suffered back-to-back TKO losses a couple of years ago.
This feels like a fight where both fighters approach has a chance of being successful. Shahbazyan’s early intensity and power could certainly trouble Petroski on the feet here, but knowing that he’s very likely to pursue his advantage in the wrestling department early in the fight to stay safe and wear on his opponent’s energy reserves. In the end I’m leaning towards Petroski to successfully manage to implement his gameplan, enabling him to tap out a tiring Shahbazyan by the end of the second round.
Pick: Andre Petroski wins by submission in Rd2.
Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos
Cody Garbrandt returns after over a year out since his submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 300 to fight Raoni Barcelos, who has won his last two fights.
The 33-year-old Garbrandt’s fall from grace since his bantamweight title-winning heyday over 8 years ago is well documented at this stage, with brutal losses, frequent injury woes and other ailments having resulted in a once pristine 11-0 record having now been tarnished by six losses in his past nine Octagon appearances. At his peak he was a very talented striker who could also wrestle, and while he might not be quite as sharp and confident as he was back in his heyday, he is still a big threat offensively and continues to have good speed and carry finishing power in his fists. Durability remains a major issue for him however, and his long injury absences mean we’ve not really seen him manage to add new strings to his bow over the years.
At 38-years-old Barcelos is becoming an elder statesman of the division, and not so long ago it looked like he might be about to slide out of the UFC after suffering four losses in five fights. However, the experienced veteran has since managed to turn things around with back-to-back wins, including a win over the heavily-hyped Payton Talbott last time out. Barcelos has always been a fast-and-furious style fighter who takes advantage of his well-rounded offensive threats to challenge his opponents both on the feet and on the mat. He has to pace himself more these days and isn’t as quick as he once was, but he still has good athleticism and skill. He’ll have to be careful of Garbrandt’s power when exchanging on the feet, but Barcelos does a good job of transitioning between striking and wrestling, and on the mat he’s a skilled grappler with good ground-and-pound too.
Garbrandt is the harder-hitter of the two and can still be quick with his delivery, so if he can keep this fight upright he’ll be a constant threat. However, even though he is older, Barcelos is more durable and will be willing to mix up his approach, which I think will be the key for him here as by focusing more on his grappling I think he can work his way to a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Raoni Barcelos wins by decision.
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Cody Brundage
The undefeated Mansur Abdul-Malik has gone 2-0 in the UFC since joining from the Contender Series and now fights Cody Brundage, who fought to a win and a no-contest over the course of the last 12 months.
The 27-year-old Abdul-Malik is a big, athletic 185lb’er who has a strong wrestling base and can work for thudding ground-and-pound on the mat. However, Abdul-Malik prefers to be upright where he can use his 79″ reach to launch his punches with both power and speed. His technique still needs refinement, but so far he’s finished all eight of his career fights inside the distance, with seven of those coming via strikes. However, that does mean that almost four years into his pro-career, Abdul-Malik hasn’t made it to the third round of a fight yet, so we don’t know how his cardio will hold out if he can’t find a finish.
The 31-year-old Brundage’s recent record has to be taken with a pinch of salt as those he’s technically only been beaten once in five fights, that does include two fights having ended prematurely due to him having been the victim of illegal blows to the back of the head. Brundage has a fighting style that doesn’t really stand out from the crowed, relying on a striking game that doesn’t have a whole lot of depth and tends to lean on his natural power, while he is also a reasonably capable wrestler too and can work for the occasional submission finish. He’s not the best defensively on the feet though and isn’t the best when forced to work off his back.
Abdul-Malik has a large 7″ reach advantage to help aid him in the striking department here, and while he’s less experienced I think he is the better fighter here and will trouble Brundage on the feet and then finish him with ground-and-pound on the mat in the 2nd round.
Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by TKO in Rd2.
Alonzo Menifield vs. Oumar Sy
Alonzo Menifield suffered two knockout losses in a row last year, but started 2025 off better with a split-decision win. Now he goes up against Oumar Sy, who has won his first two UFC fights to extend his career recrd to a perfect 11-0.
The 37-year-old Menifield was actually scheduled to fight Sy back in March, and that looked like a daunting match-up at the time given his prior two KO defeats, but in a twist of fate his opponent withdrew on short notice due to an injury and so he fought the debuting Julius Walker instead. That proved to be a more favorable match-up for Menifield to find his feet again, though he didn’t pass that test with flying colors as he only ended up winning by split-decision. As such it’s questionable how much confidence that will have built as he now squares up to Sy again. It’s only in this recent spell that durability has suddenly become a major concern for Menifield as he was actually unbeaten in five fights leading into 2024. A stockily built, muscular middleweight, Menifield has very heavy hands and can deliver solid kicks too, while his ground-and-pound was equally impactful and is backed up by an occasional submission threat. Cardio has been an issue for Menifield at times though, and that’s led to him slowing his pace a bit more over time, though even last time out he still looked tired towards the end.
The 29-year-old Sy is an imposing middleweight at 6ft 4″ with one of the biggest reaches around at 83″. That gives him 4″ in height and 7″ in reach over Menifield, but while Sy is certainly a capable striker with good athleticism, he’s not the deadliest finisher around with four finishes via strikes to his name so far. With that being said, Sy benefits from having a well-rounded skill-set as he has good wrestling and grappling ability that’s led him to four submission victories.
Despite Menifield’s potentially vulnerable chin, Sy will also have to be wary of his punching power, and so I would expect him to make use of the full extent of his MMA game here to ensure that he comes away with a decision victory.
Pick: Oumar Sy wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho
Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa
Ricky Simón vs. Cameron Smotherman
Philip Rowe vs. Ange Loosa
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
