UFC Fight Night 195 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
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Main Card
Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont
It’s a bit disturbing that Ladd is fighting again so soon after a bad weight-cut attempt prior to UFC Fight Night 193 earlier in the month that left her shaking uncontrollably on the scale, forcing her to be withdrawn from her bantamweight bout with Macy Chiasson.
This has been an ongoing issue for Ladd, but if there is some good good news it’s that this newly made fight will be contested at 145lbs, which should make the weight cut a lot easier.
Even so, we don’t know what kind of a toll that previous cut took on her physically, and on top of that she’s also returning to action after an almost two-year layoff due to series knee injuries.
If that affects her ability to secure takedowns then it could be a real problem as her stand-up game leaves a lot to be desired, though once she has her opponent on the mat the whole game changes as she has some of the most ferocious ground-and-pound you’ll see.
Dumont will certainly be hoping she can keep this one standing as she’s a much better striker than Ladd, and she also has past experience fighting at 145lbs. On top of that she was already preparing for a five round fight, so that could give her an extra edge, while on the mat she does have a submission game.
There’s a lot of uncertainties about Ladd, which makes it difficult to pick her with confidence, but nonetheless, she’s the No.3 ranked 135lb’er for a reason and I do still believe that her wrestling and ground-and-pound could prove to be a recipe for success here, leading to a third round TKO finish on the mat.
Pick: Aspen Ladd wins by TKO in Rd3
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Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe
Hats off to Arlovski – at 42 the veteran is still competing at a good level in the UFC, having won three of his last four fights.
Arlovski has been able to prolong his career by utilizing a cautious, defensively-minded gameplan that plays to the strengths of his technical striking ability, forgoing power and high-octane flurries in favor of patient, methodical work on the outside that keeps his chin out of harm’s way and doesn’t drain his gas tank prematurely.
Felipe will keep him on his toes though as he’s 16-years his junior at 26, which is very young by the standards of this weight class. Felipe is deceptively quick given his not very athletic physique and he’s actually a solid striker who has also proven to be very durable so far, though not necessarily being as heavy-handed as some of his counterparts in the division.
This could certainly be another fight when Arlovski’s skill and experience enable him to eek out another decision win. However, I can’t help feeling that it’s only a matter of time before this run he’s on comes to a sudden halt due to his age and chin, and I think Felipe’s ability to stay at least somewhat competitive in the striking battle will leave open opportunities to land hurtful blows that set up a second round TKO stoppage.
Pick: Carlos Felipe wins by TKO in Rd2
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Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez
Just by stepping into the Octagon on Saturday night Miller will break a record by becoming the fighter with the most bouts in UFC history (38).
The 38-year-old has serious work to do after that though as he’s been defeated in three of his last four fights and is coming off back-to-back losses, and is now taking on a newcomer in Gonzalez, who holds a 14-5 career record and is coming off two-wins in a row.
It does feel like Miller’s career is starting to draw to a close as he’s visibly slowing down, which is significant as he wasn’t fast to begin with, and he also seems to have less gas in the tank and is even being outgrappled at times, which is typically his strong suit.
Nevertheless, I do expect him to have the advantage on the mat here too, but Gonzalez does have the ability to trouble him on the feet with his activity and pressure, in addition to a 3″ height and reach advantage.
It does feel like the UFC are starting to have to dig deep to give Miller fights that he can stay competitive in, and I do think this is one that he might be able to seize a win from, with Gonzalez aggression and weak takedown defense enabling the veteran to bring him down and secure a first round submission victory.
Pick: Jim Miller wins by submission in Rd1.
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Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Fiorot has compiled a 7-1 run that’s seen her go undefeated since losing in her MMA deebut, while Silva has a 7-1-1 record, but her loss and draw have come recently during her time in the UFC.
Fiorot is a proven finisher on the feet, which certainly helps her stand out from the crowd at flyweight, with her hard-hitting punches being enhanced by her versatile kicks, leading to potent combinations.
Silva is a capable striker in her own right, but she’s not as potent and is more hittable than Fiorot. That being said, Fiorot is a talent on the mat and will hunt for submissions whether she’s fighting on top or off her back.
I think Silva’s going to struggle to get the fight where she wants it though as Fiorot’s footwork and combinations will give her real problems and lead to a TKO in the final round.
Pick: Manon Fiorot wins by TKO In Rd3.
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Julian Marquez vs. Jordan Wright
Two tried-and-tested finishers on display here, with every win Marquez and Wright have ever had coming before the final bell.
In fact, Wright rarely ever sees the second round of a fight, which certainly speaks to his fight-ending ability, but could also be a weakness if his fast-starting style doesn’t pay off as quickly as usual.
Marquez certainly would appear to have the durability to test him in that regard as he’s never been stopped in his 11-fights to date. He is hittable though as he favors a brawling style that enables him to unleash his heavy hands, while he’s also demonstrated good finishing instincts on the mat via submission too.
Wright will have a 5″ reach advantage to work with though and that suits his karate based striking style that will see him unleash punches and kicks from range. Wright appears to not have as sturdy a chin as Marquez though, having been KO’d twice in the last few years (one was later amended to a co-contest due to a drug-test failure).
This is a fight that’s definitely up for grabs either way as these two provide a stoppage threat whether the fight goes, but though I’m not entirely convinced by Marquez yet, I do think that his power and durability will enable him to get the better of the striking battle and whether it’s on the feet or the mat, I see him claiming a second round TKO victory.
Pick: Julian Marquez wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims
Andrew Sanchez vs. Bruno Silva
Danny Roberts vs. Ramazan Emeev
Sijara Eubanks vs Luana Carolina
Nate Landwehr vs. L’udovit Klein
Danaa Batgerel vs. Brandon Davis
Istela Nunes vs. Ariane Carnelossi
