UFC Fight Night 291 takes place tomorrow night in Edmonton, Canada and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott
Joaquin Buckley comes in off consecutive losses to headline this event against Mike Malott, who has won his last four fights.
A few years ago the 32-year-old Buckley was riding a wave of momentum, putting together a six-fight winning streak that included stoppage victories over Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque. The 32-year-old is an explosive, muscular welterweight with fast, dynamic striking and big knockout power. His run of form came after notable improvements to his pace and cardio, while even adding some offensive wrestling to his game. However, defensively his ground game has been exposed, with both Kamaru Usman and Brendan Allen managing to comfortably secure takedowns and control him for extended periods. It should also be noted that while Buckley owns an impressive 21 wins by KO/TKO, he has also suffered four stoppage losses by strikes over the years.
Malott is 7-1 in the UFC and finally broken into the rankings after a TKO victory over Gilbert Burns took him to the No.11 spot. The 34-year-old Canadian is a well-rounded fighter who previously served as Team Alpha Male’s striking coach during a hiatus from competing in the years prior to joining the UFC. He brings a composed, technical striking game with respectable power, while he also has capable wrestling and an effective grappling game. That’s all led to twelve of his 16 career wins coming inside the distance, evenly split between knockouts and submissions. However, both of his defeats have come by TKO, and his cardio can look a little less than convincing late on in fights.
Malott has the more well-rounded skill set here and better fight IQ, but Buckley’s power doesn’t fade too much even in the later stages of a fight, so he’s always a threat. Overall, I don’t expect Malott to dominate the wrestling as effectively as Buckley’s last two opponents, but I do think he can mix up his striking with timely takedowns to rack up some control time to help win enough rounds to emerge with a decision victory.
Pick: Mike Malott wins by decision.
Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Erin Blanchfield brings an 8-1 UFC record into this co-main event clash with Jasmine Jasudavicius, who has gone 9-3 inside the Octagon.
The 27-year-old Blanchfield has only managed to fight once a year lately, but she’s made an impression when she has stepped into the Octagon, beating both Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez. Her skilled grappling remains the strongest part of her game, with excellent positional control, assured submissions and capable wrestling, along with some mean ground-and-pound. On the feet, however, Blanchfield is less convincing. She’s always willing to press forward, throw strikes and is tougher than you’d expect, but Blanchfield lacks the power, athleticism and striking polish to match the division’s best stand-up fighters. So far, only Manon Fiorot has been able to fully take advantage of that though.
Jasudavicius has also lost to Fiorot, suffering a TKO loss before rebounding with a decision win over Karine Silva last time out. The 37-year-old shares some stylistic similarities with Blanchfield, relying more on her wrestling, clinch work and grappling than her striking, which likes bite. She’s a grinder who looks to win rounds via control time, though to be fair she’s become more of a submission threat in recent years. That was highlighted by her rear-naked choke finish of Jessica Andrade last year, which earned her a BJJ black belt.
Given their similar skill-sets this could be a closely fought encounter, but I do feel Blanchfield is the more talented grappler and her resilience and determination on the feet gives her the edge there too, leading to a win for her on the scorecards.
Pick: Erin Blanchfield wins by decision.
Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez
Kyle Nelson comes in off defeats in two of his last three outings to take on recent Contender Series graduate Cristian Perez, who will be making his UFC debut.
Nelson has had a turbulent UFC campaign since arriving back in 2018. After going winless in his first five Octagon appearances, he steadied the ship with three consecutive victories. However, his form has declined again more recently, and worryingly his last two defeats both came by first-round TKO. The 35-year-old is an aggressive fighter who likes to blend boxing with wrestling and has the cardio to maintain a solid pace over three rounds. He possesses respectable power and can also threaten with submissions, but defensive lapses have often proven costly and his durability is becoming an increasing concern.
Perez arrives with a 15-2 pro-record and earned his UFC contract at the second-attempt after losing his first Contender Series bout. The 27-year-old Mexican is a good boxer with clean technique and will apply pressure, but his defence can be a little suspect at times. Perez is also comfortable grappling, and will serve up ground-and-pound too. Twelve of his 15 wins so far have come inside the distance, and while his early career often revolved around submission victories, his striking has been front-and-center lately, with each of his last five victories being ended by punches.
Perez has age, speed and durability on his side here, and I think he matches up reasonably well technically here too, which will help him to a TKO finish in the 2nd round.
Pick: Cristian Perez wins by TKO in Rd2.
Marc-André Barriault vs. Kyle Daukaus
After two losses in a row, Marc-Andre Barriault now goes up against Kyle Daukaus, who is seeking to rebound from a 1st round TKO loss against Bo Nickal.
The 36-year-old Barriault did at least picked up back-to-back Fight of the Night bonuses even in defeat, but the bigger concern is that he has now lost five of his last six fights. His game has always been built around utilizing his high-volume striking, dependable cardio and toughness to apply constant pressure and wear opponents down. He tends to lack one-punch knockout power, he’s often able to break opponents down via sheer output and persistence. However, he’s not all that technical or versatile and so his overall record is underwhelming at just 6-10 in the UFC. On top of that, his durability has also became a concern after consecutive first-round knockout losses in 2024, and though he’s shown since that he can still take a punch, his chin remains a worry given how hittable he can be at times.
Daukaus’ first UFC stint from 2020 to 2022 yielded a disappointing 2-4 record, but four subsequent wins in the Cage Fury promotion earned him another opportunity with the promotion. He made the most of it, securing first-round finishes over Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert before running into Bo Nickal, who stopped him inside a round. The 33-year-old’s most reliable weapon has been his top-side grappling, snatching on 12 career wins by submission, including no less than eight by D’Arce choke. He is less effective fighting off his back however, but has never been submitted. Meanwhile, though he’s not the most quickest or slickest striker he has shown technical improvements over the years. That being said, his swift KO finish of Michel Pereira last year was only the 2nd win via strikes in his entire career, and on the other hand he’s now been finished three times himself in the UFC.
Given both fighters questionable chins this might go either way. I feel Daukaus has become the better striker technically of the two though and while his wrestling isn’t the most reliable, if he can get this fight to the mat at any point I like his chances of securing a submission stoppage.
Pick: Kyle Daukaus wins by submission in Rd2.
Louis Jourdain vs. Timothy Cuamba
Louis Jourdain makes his UFC debut after earning a contract on the Contender Series over a year ago, and will be taking on Timothy Cuamba, who has gone 2-2 in the Octagon so far.
The 29-year-old Jourdain arrives with a 9-3 record derived from the Canadian regional scene. The younger brother of UFC veteran Charles Jourdain, he has spent much of his career training alongside him and comes into this fight riding a four-fight unbeaten stretch. Striking is Jourdain’s strongest suit as he’s a well-versed boxer who even put together a 3-1 professional boxing record. He’s not limited to jus that though as he also throws sharp elbows and has hard low kicks too. His grappling looks less assured by comparison though, and so while he does have a couple of rear-naked choke victories, two of his three professional losses have also come by submission.
Cuamba won the Contender Series back in 2023, but was deemed not ready to compete in the UFC yet, only to then earn a short-notice call-up the following year. Those initial concerns seemed justified after back-to-back losses in his first two UFC appearances, but he bounce back with consecutive victories before suffering another defeat last time out. The 27-year-old is a capable boxer with a reliable jab and solid fundamentals, but he’s also shown some diversity with a couple of finishes coming via flying knee and head kick. He will mix in an occasional takedown attempt when opportunities arise, but wrestling and grappling have not been major strengths for him and so he’s yet to record a submission win as a professional and has been submitted twice himself.
I’d expect to see a striking match here with Jourdain’s more technically polished striking making the difference over three rounds.
Pick: Louis Jourdain to win by decision.
Mandel Nallo vs. Nate Landwehr
Mandel Nallo looks to rebound from a TKO loss in his UFC debut when he takes on Nate Landwehr, who has been defeated in four of his last five fights.
Nallo’s arrival in the UFC came relatively late in his career, with the 37-year-old having previously had an extended run in the Bellator promotion during his 14-4 career. He has a long, rangy frame to the lightweight division that will afford him a three-inch advantage in both height and reach against Landwehr. He makes good use of that physicality by fighting at range with impactful straight punches and kicks, and while he’s not the best wrestler, he does pose a threat on the mat when he brings his grappling into play. Nallo has never gone to a decision in his career, with all 14 of his wins being split between eight knockouts and six submissions. That also means that every one of his defeats has come before the final bell, including three by strikes and one by submission.
Landwehr has been an entertaining fighter to watch over the past six years, but the wild aggression that has made him so exciting may finally be catching up with him. At 38-year-old, Landwehr has now been stopped by strikes in each of his last three outings, bringing his total number of knockout losses in the UFC to five. That’s a real problem, particularly as his style leans more on his toughness than technique, but Landwehr does still have good cardio to pushes a hard pace, and can also be effective in the clinch and has capable grappling when he chooses to use it.
I think it’s going to be tough for Landwehr now that his chin is going and so I’ll take Nallo to land strikes from range early here to find a 1st round TKO finish.
Pick: Mandel Nallo wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz
Julien Leblanc vs. Nick Galanti
Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier
Katlyn Cerminara vs. Mackenzie Stiller
Chad Anheliger vs. Steven Koslow
Melissa Croden vs. Chelsea Chandler
Cody Chovancek vs. You Su-young
