UFC On FOX 30 takes place tomorow night in Calgary, Canada and you can see our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card (FOX)
Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier
Poirier got the better of the first encounter between these two for the most part, before an illegal knee from his opponent brought the fight to an abrupt ‘no-contest’ conclusion, and I think he can so so again on Saturday night.
Poirier’s ability to strike from range, aided by a 3″ reach advantage, his power, speed and work on the counter will all serve him well here, as long as he sticks to a patient gameplan and doesn’t overcommit in search of a finish.
Meanwhile, Alvarez’s best chance is to once again tap into Poirier’s tendancy to get lured into a more reckless, dangerous series of exchanges on the feet that he’s likely to come off second-best in due to Alvarez’s remarkable durability and ‘The Diamond’s’ less sturdy chin.
I think Poirier will have learned a lesson from their last encounter however and will be a little more controlled with his own aggression if and when he does get Alvarez hurt, and that will pay dividends with a third round TKO stoppage.
Dustin Poirier to win by TKO in Rd3.
Jose Aldo vs. Jeremy Stephens
Having been stopped in three of his last four fights there have been questions posed as to whether Aldo is now past his sell-by date, but given that his opponents were Max Holloway (twice) and Conor McGregor, together with the fact that he impressed with a decision win over Frankie Edgar inbetween, it seems a little premature to simply write him off at this stage.
Aldo remains a very high-level striker with excellent technique that will only have been enhanced lately by working with renowned boxing coach Robert Garcia.
That should match up well against Stephens, whose striking has improved, but is still building on the base of a hard-hitting brawler and is far less refined and much more vulnerable defensively than the former champion.
I think this is a fight where Aldo’s speed, movement and superior striking will stand him in good stead, enabling him to pick apart Stephens and secure a decision victory.
Jose Aldo to win by decision.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Tecia Torres
Jedrzejczyk is another former dominant champion who has now shown some signs of vulnerability after losing twice in a row to Rose Namajunas. Perhaps even more than Aldo though, it’s hard to believe that Jedrzejczyk is suddenly going to be easy meat for other contenders in the division.
Torres is a good fighter, but she’s coming in at a real height and reach disadvantage here and doesn’t pack the kind of power that’s going to trouble Jedrzejczyk.
Like Torres, Jedrzejczyk is primarily a volume striker, but a more technical one and I see her controlling the range and stunting her opponent’s offensive flurries with sharper combinations of her own to earn a comfortable decision victory.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win by decision.
Alexander Hernandez vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Hernandez quickly finished Beneil Dariush in his Octagon debut, but I don’t expect Aubin-Mercier to prove to be as easy to put away on Saturday night.
That being said, there are some promising signs that Hernandez can pose problems for the Canadian on the feet, but I think it’s going to be Aubin-Mercier’s superior wrestler that’s going to be the key difference between the two in this fight and he’ll outgrapple his opponent over the course of three rounds to walk away with a win on the scorecards.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier to win by decision.
Prelims (FOX) (Predicted winners in bold)
Jordan Mein vs. Alex Morono
Kajan Johnson vs. Islam Makhachev
Austin Arnett vs. Hakeem Dawodu
Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs. Ion Cutelaba
UFC Fight Pass Prelims
John Makdessi vs. Ross Pearson
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Alexis Davis
Matheus Nicolau vs. Dustin Ortiz
Nina Ansaroff vs. Randa Markos
Devin Powell vs. Alvaro Herrera