UFC 307 takes place tomorrow night in Salt Lake City, Utah and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
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Main Card
Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira will look to make the third successful defense of his 205lb title in 2024 when he fights Khalil Rountree Jr, who has won his last five fights.
The 37-year-old is a former kickboxing champion who has enjoyed a hugely successful transition to MMA in recent years, having won the middleweight title and after losing it made a move up to light-heavyweight and seized the belt there too. Every limb is a deadly weapon for Pereira, but his left hook in particular has been responsible for a many knockout finishes, while his calf kicks are hard enough to knock opponents off their feet, and when delivered to the head can also prove to be a lights-out moment. Pereira has consistently been able to prove his credentials as one of the most devastating strikers in UFC history, with the likes of Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Jiri Prochakza (twice) and Jamahal Hill all being finished by either KO or TKO by the Brazilian in less than three years. That being said, while he’s a nightmare offensively for opponents, Pereira can be hit, and he has been hurt at times too, but he does have very good powers of recovery. He’s also getting up there in years now and his strength of schedule may start to take a toll, but for now he still looks very sharp and hungry for more big finishes.
The 34-year-old Rountree is someone who will be ready, willing and able to engage in a striking battle with Pereira as he’s a powerful striker too who has finishes four of his last five opponents by TKO. Rountree will be giving up 3″ in height and reach to the champion, but he is stockier and more muscular. He has good technical muay thai striking and has explosive power in both his punches and kicks, and has even stopping opponents with kicks to the leg and to the body during his current winning streak. Rountree doesn’t have any experience of fighting into the championship rounds though and he did suffer a couple of first round losses via strikes earlier in his UFC career.
As dangerous a striker as Rountree is there is levels to this game and I think Pereira will prove he’s still at the top of the food chain by having the better offensive reads here in the heat of the battle, together with being the more potent finisher and having better durability too, leading to a 2nd round TKO victory.
Pick: Alex Pereira wins by TKO in Rd2.
Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña
Raquel Pennington beat Mayra Bueno Silva at the start of the year to win the vacant 135lb title and now puts her six-fight winning streak to the test against Julianna Pena, who returns to action two years after she lost the belt in a rematch against Amanda Nunes.
A former TUF semi-finalist over a decade ago, Raquel Pennington didn’t seem like the most likely pick to be a future champion with her solid rather than spectacular skill-set. She did well to fight her way to a title shot back in 2018 though, but was completely outclassed by Amanda Nunes, who handed her a one-sided beatdown. Pennington could easily have slipped fallen away after that demoralizing defeat, but instead she showed her mental fortitude to go on an extended winning run that eventually coincided with Nunes retirement, paving the way for a title triumph. Pennington’s game has always been based around her steady, dependable boxing fundamentals, and while she’s hampered by a real lack of finishing power, she has had enough technical craft and toughness to be able to edge out close rounds. And as the years have gone on she’s also leaned into a grindingly effective clinch game to supplement her striking, while she is capable of working for the occasional takedown too.
The 35-year-old Pena was actually on the same season of The Ultimate Fighter as Pennington and actually went on to win it. Becoming TUF’s first ever female winner wouldn’t prove to be her biggest claim to fame however, as in 2022 she shocked the world by unexpectedly ending Amanda Nunes long title-reign at 135lbs. The win showed off Pena’s steely determination, tenacity and hard-headedness as she went toe-to-toe with the Brazilian ace. This was no striking masterclass, but her forward pressure and relentless combinations of left and right hands took their toll against an out-of-sorts Nunes and eventually led her to get the fight to the floor and seize on a 2nd round submission finish. It was a remarkable moment, but Nunes proved it was a freak occurrence by dominating their rematch. Still, Pena’s bullying approach to fighting, durability and unshakeable self-belief has taken her far, and while her striking lacks finesse, she’s still made it work, while she can also battle in the clinch and has a good offensive ground game with aggressive ground-and-pound and a submission threat too.
I think Pennington is a little bit cleaner and craftier on the feet and is also surprisingly sturdy in the clinch. Meanwhile, Pena has more aggression, can hold her own in the clinch and I think is more effective on the mat. In the end I suspect this one might be a bit of a stalemate in the clinch for extended periods and there might not be much to choose between them by the end of the fight, but I’ll lean slightly towards the more savvy veteran Pennington to have done just enough to eek out a decision victory.
Pick: Raquel Pennington wins by decision.
José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo proved he’s still a force to be reckoned with when he made a comeback from MMA retirement at UFC 301 and beat Jonathan Martinez to end the younger man’s six-fight unbeaten stretch, and now he’s going to attempt it again when he comes up against Mario Bautista, who is also on a six-fight winning streak.
In his two years away from the UFC the 38-year-old Aldo pursued his ambition to become a boxer, but despite having been long considered one of the UFC’s best in that department, he didn’t set the world alight there, posting two decision wins against unheralded opponents along with a surprise majority draw against fellow UFC veteran Jeremy Stephens (who he’d previously TKO’d in the UFC back in 2018). That might explain why he’s now back competing in the Octagon now, and to his credit he looked like he’d never left back in May with an assured display of striking against a talented opponent in Martinez. His hands looked sharp, he fired off the occasional fast leg kick (though still not as many as he did when it was such a potent weapon in his heyday), and even gave a rare glimpse of his capable offensive wrestling ability too. And of course Aldo still possesses some of the best takedown defense in the game too.
The 30-year-old Bautista is an industrious fighter who has a well-rounded skill-set and the cardio to help ensure he can push his opponents in all aspects of the game for the full 15 minutes. He has solid striking technique and will apply pressure with his active offensive output. He’s not known as a big finisher on the feet, but he’s still capable of landing impactful blows, particularly with his solid kicks. Meanwhile he transitions comfortably to his offensive wrestling and he has a respectable submission game that a couple of years ago led to three stoppage victories in a row.
In Aldo’s comeback fight it looked his opponent was a bit overawed by him, but I think Bautista will be more composed. And he’s the kind of fighter who builds as the fight goes on and so while Aldo might have some initial success I think Bautista’s intensity and work-rate in the later rounds could pay off here against the veteran, leading him to a decision win.
Pick: Mario Bautista wins by decision.
Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison
The no.2 ranked women’s bantamweight Ketlen Vieira is 3-1 in her last four fights, but standing in the way of a potential title push is a very tough test in the shape of Kayla Harrison, a former Olympic judo gold-medalist and two-time PFL tournament champion who made an immediate impact in her promotional debut at UFC 300 by submitting Holly Holm.
Well-sized for the division, the 33-year-old Vieira is a fairly competent striker, albeit without much of a cutting edge to her work. She fares better at closer quarters as she works well from the clinch with trips and throws and has good grappling control on the mat. That being said, like on the feet she’s not proven to be much of a finisher, with 7 of her 8 UFC wins coming via decision, including five-round victories over former champions Miesha Tate and Holly Holm.
The problem for Vieira in this fight is that her natural strengths lead her straight into the 34-year-old Harrison’s wheelhouse. As an elite-level judoka she thrives in the clinch and in addition to her excellent technique is also exceptionally strong and has the muscles to prove it. Harrison is aided even further by the fact that she’s somehow successfully managed to drop down to 135lbs, despite previously having been dominant at 155lbs. And once Harrison has used her judo to get the fight to the floor she’s proven to have heavy-handed ground-and-pound and good submission ability, resulting in a strong finishing rate with 13 stoppages from 17 career victories.
Harrison has not been shy in letting everyone know she believes she’s a future champion, and it’s hard to argue with that. Vieira has to try to keep this fighting at striking range to have a chance, but I see Harrison quickly managing to close the distance and from there she should be able to ragdoll Viera and dominate the action on top to secure a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Kayla Harrison wins by submission in Rd2.
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
After beating Anthony Smith in a short-notice fight up at light-heavyweight, Roman Dolidze now drops back down to middleweight to square up against Kevin Holland, who decided to return to 185lbs after a run at welterweight last time out and was rewarded with a submission victory.
A strong, thickly built middleweight, the 36-year-old Dolidze is also a respectable all-rounder who has been holding his own in and around the Top 10 rankings. He doesn’t have the most refined striking on the feet and isn’t the most active either, but he’s heavy-handed, has some thumping low kicks and also has the distinction of never having been finished in his career. Dolidze is a good wrestler who can keep his opponent grounded, land heavy ground-and-pound and is also more crafty in the grappling department than you might expect for someone with only 3 of his 10 career finishes coming via submission. One downside though is that Dolidze’s physique and emphasis on power can take a bit of a toll on his energy reserves at times.
The 31-year-old Holland has a longer, leaner frame than Dolidze and will have an extra 5″ in reach to work with in addition to being an inch taller. Holland possesses dynamic striking and does a good job of firing off hard-hitting straight punches alongside kicks from range, while his long limbs can also pay off at closer range courtesy of whipping elbows and jumping knees. There’s some creative flair to his game too at times which can keep his opponents guessing. Holland’s defensive wrestling eventually became a major issue in his last run at 185lbs, and though he has shown improvements to his takedown defense and scrambling ability, being taken down and held on his back for extended periods still remains a distinct possibility. Holland does actually have decent offensive wrestling though and particular on top has some nice submissions.
Dolidze is comfortable striking, but pursuing that strategy here would be a mistake as Holland has the advantage there. On the other hand, if Dolidze sticks mostly to a wrestling-based strategy I think it could be another frustrating night for Holland, leading Dolidze to a decision victory.
Pick: Roman Dolidze wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley
Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo
César Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria
Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez
Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington
Court McGee vs. Tim Means
