Main Card
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
Veteran welterweight campaigner Gilbert Burns is coming in off two losses in a row to headline this event against Sean Brady, who picked up a submission win over Kelvin Gastelum in his last appearance to 6-1 in the promotion.
The 38-year-old Burns last fight ended badly by KO via Jack Della Maddalena, but it should be stressed that up to that point late in the fight he was on the way to a decision win, having been up a couple of rounds on two judges scorecards against his in-form opponent, who was over a decade younger than him. So it’s clear that Burns is still a force to be reckoned with thanks to his well-rounded fighting ability and vast amount of experience. His BJJ game is his strongest suit and makes him willing to go to the mat with anyone, and despite not being a big welterweight he can wrestle to get the fight there. However, Burns is also comfortable on the feet, has enough power to earn respect from his opponents and likes to apply pressure. Despite his KO last time out he’s generally been quite durable and has good cardio, but he’s at an age where those attributes could be in decline.
The 31-year-old Brady could also be considered a good all-rounder, though it does tend to be his very assured wrestled along with good grappling and clinch-work that stands out the most. He tends to favor controlling opponents, and though he is certainly a submission threat it’d be quite a feat to be the first to tap out Burns. Meanwhile, on the feet Brady isn’t the most feared striker as he lacks the natural power to be a consistent finisher, but he does have a solid mix of fundamental boxing and kicks.
Brady is the better pure-wrestler of the two and I can see him employing a grinding approach on the mat and in the clinch to try to stifle Burns. That’s easier said than done though, particularly with Burns skilled BJJ, and meanwhile on the feet I do think the veteran has a bit more to offer and will push the pace and land the more meaningful strikes. So, while I’m somewhat torn on the pick, I’m leaning towards Burns to prove to still be a tough nut to crack as he keeps up his energy levels into the later rounds to emerge with a decision victory.
Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins by decision.
Jessica Andrade vs. Natália Silva
In the co-main event ex-115lb champ Jessica Andrade will look for her third win in a row in this flyweight fight against Natalia Silva, who has managed to go on a five-fight winning streak since joining the UFC.
The 32-year-old Andrade has done well to shake off a disappointing three-fight losing slump last year in which she was submitted twice and KO’d once. She hasn’t really changed her style though as the short-but-stocky and physically strong Brazilian still relies on being the bully, constantly marching down her opponents with hard-hitting punches and also having the ability to transition into brute-force takedowns that’ll see her slam opponents to the mat and hammer them with ground-and-pound. Her flaws have been exposed over the years though as she’s far too hittable and is susceptible to being submitted on the mat. For a long time she could rely on her durability, but while she’s still mentally tough she doesn’t take strikes as well as she used to, and her lack of adaptability is a big concern, as when she’s hurt she tends to become even more aggressive offensively as opposed to being more mindful defensively, which can compound her problems.
The 27-year-old Silva has a good set of skills that have helped her to a strong start in the UFC. She’ll have 3″ in height and reach over Andrade on Saturday night and will look to take advantage of her speed, footwork and better technique to keep the Brazilian at bay. Silva has had good success with kicks too as in the UFC, having TKO’d both Tereza Bleda and Victoria Leonardo. Silva can wrestle too, has good takedown takedown defense, and though she’s not delivered a submission finish in the UFC so far, she had nice success with that on the regional circuit, with the armbar in particular being a weapon of choice.
Andrade is certainly still capable of winning fights in the UFC, but I think talented fighters will more often than not be able to take advantage of her deeply-ingrained flaws, and I feel Silva’s sharper striking and speed puts her in that category, chipping away at her opponent’s defensive flaws to pick up a decision victory.
Pick: Natalia Silva wins by decision.
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson
Steve Garcia will pit his four-fight winning streak against Kyle Nelson’s three wins and a draw when they fight on the main card.
These are two tall featherweights, with Garcia having only an inch advantage in height despite standing 6ft, though he will be working with 4″ extra in terms of reach. Garcia is a tough, aggressive striker who brings the fight his opponents with good punching power and he has nasty ground-and-pound on the mat too. He’s quite accurate on the offensive and has a strong finishing record, with 13 out of his 16 career wins coming via strikes, including all four of his UFC wins. If opponents can find ways through his offense he can be outwrestled though.
The 33-year-old Nelson’s UFC run got off to a dismal start with four losses in his first five fights, but he’s turned things around since and picked up a notable 1st round TKO finish against Bill Algeo last time out. He’ll attempt to lead the dance with his mix of boxing and wrestling, carries respectable power and despite his long limbs is happy to battle at close quarters. Nelson’s defense isn’t the best though and his bullying style can take a toll on his cardio later in the fight.
I don’t expect either fighter to keep their winning streak going for much longer, but I’ll take Garcia to continue his for now by using his power and reach to take advantage of Nelson’s porous defense, resulting in a TKO finish in the 2nd round.
Pick: Steve Garcia to win by TKO in Rd2.
Matt Schnell vs. Cody Durden
After suffering back-to-back KO defeats in his last two appearances, Matt Schnell now takes on a short-notice opponent in Cody Durden, who steps in for Alessandro Costa on a week’s notice looking to bounce back from a couple of losses.
There’s no shame in losing two two high-level 125lber’s in Steve Erceg and Mathues Nicolau, but being knocked out twice in a row, despite there being well over a year between the bouts is concerning, and even more so when you consider all five of his career losses have been by KO, including back-to-back ones at the start of his UFC run. Schnell’s natural style doesn’t help matters as he has an aggressive, forward-pressing style that can put him in the firing line, but to his credit ‘Danger’ does have good striking, putting together combinations well with respectable power, and he’s even more potent on the mat thanks to his crafty grappling ability, which has resulted in 9 out of his 16 career wins coming via submission.
Not so long ago the 33-year-old Durden was on a four-fight winning run, but he’s since went on to pick up to two losses, including being TKO’d just a couple of months ago. That’s a career-first defeat via strikes however as a bigger stumbling block over the years for Durden has been on the mat, having been submitted three times during his time in the UFC. That’s worrying given Schnell’s submission skills, but wrestling is a big part of Durden’s game, with good takedowns and solid control and scrambling ability. Meanwhile, on the feet he’s a decent boxer, has some power and fights at a good pace.
I’m not comfortable picking Schnell given his chin issues, but to be fair him he typically only loses to very good opposition and if you can’t KO him then he’s a hard man to get the better of. So, given that Durden’s not a stand-out striker, and his submission defense issues, I think this is the kind of fight that work out for Schnell as he fights his way to a submission win in the 2nd round.
Pick: Matt Schnell wins by submission in Rd2.
Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz
Trevor Peek has compiled a 2-2 record since joining the UFC from the Contende Series and will now square up to Yanal Ashmouz, who has gone 1-1 so far.
The 29-year-old Peek was a bit of a wrecking machine on the regional circuit with his wild-man approach to striking that disregards technique and his own personal safety in favor of all-out violence in the shape of aggressive onslaughts of strikes alongside the occasional takedown. 6 T(KO) wins later he arrived on the Contender Series with another TKO win to add to his collection, followed by a knockout victory in his UFC debut. Inevitably this rudimentary approach to fighting could only last so long and he was beaten on the scorecards in his next fight. And a win and a loss since then have also gone the distance as Peek has attempted to at least slightly refine his style, but he’s still very raw.
Ashmouz is also 29-years-old and is also a bit of action-fighter, but there’s more a technical foundation to his work. He has good power on the feet, and while he likes to load up on his strikes he still remains a threat with it late into his fights. He can be taken down, but Ashmouz can operate on the mat when required and is capable in the clinch as well.
I think Ashmouz can match up fairly well with Peek’s intensity, and the fact that he’s just a bit more skilled and polished in most aspects of the game should help him to ride out the storm and emerge with a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Yanal Ashmouz wins by decision.
Rong Zhu vs. Chris Padilla
‘Road To UFC’ season 2 winner Rong Zhu now moves into the UFC properly in a fight against Chris Padilla, who is coming off a submission win in his UFC debut earlier in the year.
Zhu is actually in his second stint in the UFC as he previously had a 1-2 run a few years ago. And though he’s only 24, in total Zhu holds a 25-5 record overall, so he’s got a lot of experience under his belt already. He’s a solidly built lightweight with functional boxing that benefits from his significant power, together with having decent wrestling and submission ability. However, he has been submitted a few times in his career, including once in his previous UFC run.
At 28-years-old Padillo has put together a 14-6 record and has won his last four fights. That being said, prior to that he lost four out of five fights between 2018-2022, so even though he got a win in his first UFC fight it remains to be seen if he’s got what it takes to stick around in the long run. His striking is basic, but he does have a long reach, and he’s a capable wrestler who will attempt to finish by both ground-and-pound and submission.
I don’t have high hopes for either man here, but Zhu feels like he has enough in his locker to get the better of this one, winning the stand-up battle to earn a decision victory.
Pick: Rong Zhu wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Isaac Dulgarian vs. Brendon Marotte
Felipe dos Santos vs. André Lima
Yi Zha vs. Gabriel Santos
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
Andre Petroski vs. Dylan Budka
Žygimantas Ramaška vs. Nathan Fletcher
