UFC Fight Night 254 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
Marvin Vettori beat Roman Dolidze by unanimous decision a couple of years ago, but now the UFC has decided to run it back, and it’ll be a five-rounder this time. Vettori has only fought once since then, losing on the scorecards to Jared Cannonier before a shoulder injury last year sidelined him, while Roman Dolidize lost his next fight, but has since earned back-to-back wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland.
Both fighters have a pressure-based style, but in their first encounter it was Dolidze who started more aggressively, pressing forward with his harder-hitting punches, while not being overly concerned with what Vettori was throwing back at him. Vettori is known for his durability and battling qualities though and so he absorbed that and stick to his volume-based approach, making good use of leg kicks, to gradually outwork his opponent as the rounds went on to earn his decision victory.
As such, it’s the 31-year-old Vettori who is more likely to welcome the fact that the rematch will have two extra rounds as he has far more experience fighting for 25 minutes than the 36-year-old Dolidze, and naturally has the better cardio. It also means that Dolidze will likely have to come out in the opening rounds with less intensity this time in order to pace himself better, which might hurt his chances of inflicting early damage, but might enable him to stay competitive for longer. It’ll also be interesting to see if either fighter commits more to testing the other on the mat this time around as both can wrestle and offer a submission threat – though while Vettori has far more finishes in that manner, the vast majority came before his time in the UFC.
The fact Vettori has been out of action for a year-and-a-half and had a bad shoulder injury that required surgery is certainly concerning going into this one. Aside from that though I think Vettori has already proven he can take Dolidze’s power, and having outworked him over three rounds it seems very likely he’ll do even better over five, so I’ll take ‘The Italian Dream’ to again win on the scorecards.
Pick: Marvin Vettori wins by decision.
Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Chidi Njokuani headed into last year having suffered three losses in a row, but then went on to win two fights in 2024. Now he looks to keep that run going in 2025 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, who added a win and a defeat to his UFC record last year.
The 36-year-old Nkokuani’s back-to-back victories came after a move back down to a 170lbs, which was an unexpected move given that several years later he’d been forced up after a series of failures to make weight. He seems to have that under control for now though and his large frame for the welterweight division will afford him a 4″ height and 7″ reach advantage over Zaleski this weekend. And Njokuani uses his long levers effectively as thanks to his well-versed muay thai, all eight of his limbs have proven to be capable of ending fights, whether from a distance or at closer quarters. Njokuani also maintains his finishing threat late into his fights, can operate on the mat required and has a good record in fights that go the distance. His 4-3 run in the UFC so far includes two TKO losses though, so durability is a potential concern.
The 38-year-old Zaleski dos Santos is also a veteran striker with a dynamic style courtesy of his Capoeira background, which enables him to unleash flashy striking techniques, including perhaps most memorably a 2018 wheel kick KO finish of Sean Strickland. However, Zaleski hasn’t managed to compiled an 11-4-1 record in the UFC by just spamming those risky crowd-pleasers as he also has a healthy respect for the effectiveness of solid fundamentals, and uses them well alongside a capable grappling game and good durability to maintain a commendable run of form late in his career.
Given the firepower on display both fighters could find a finish here, but are also capable of going the distance too. Njokuani’s size advantage will certainly be tricky to navigate, but while Zaleski is also a couple of years older I do feel he’s the more durable and dependable of the two, and will make effective use of leg kicks and put his opponent’s chin under threat on his way to a decision victory.
Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins by decision.
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
Alexander Hernandez is coming off a split-decision victory, but had lost four out of five fights before that. Now he takes on Kurt Holobaugh, who made a UFC comeback via winning TUF Season 31 in 2023 and has gone 2-1 during his latest run in the Octagon.
The 32-year-old Hernandez showed real promise when he won his first two fights after joining the UFC in 2018. However, Hernandez has struggle for consistency since, only managing an underwhelming 7-7 run in the promotion, though he has beaten the likes of Beneil Dariush, Jim Miller and Francisco Trinaldo along the way. Hernandez has good physicality to go along with his sturdy boxing, respectable power and capable wrestling. He can struggle to pace himself efficiently at times though and so he can get off to a good start, but not always manage to maintain that for the entirety of the fight.
It wasn’t until his current third stint in the UFC that the 38-year-old Holobaugh finally got a win under his belt in the promotion, having been released after a single loss back in 2013 and then going 0-3 when he returned in 2018. Winning TUF has given him a new lease of life though late on his career. Though he’s getting up there in years he still likes to push the pace and apply pressure with his high-volume boxing work to the head and body, while he’s also proven to be a finishing threat on the mat with his good grappling leading to 10 submission victories over the years. There are flaws to his game however as he’s not the most athletic, can be too hittable and his less than stellar takedown defense is compounded by being a bit too willing to just work off his back.
Holobaugh may be able to gain some momentum later in this fight, but I’ll take Hernandez better striking and wrestling in the early rounds to help him edge out a decision win.
Pick: Alexander Hernandez wins by decision.
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson
Da’Mon Blackshear has a 3-3-1 record in the UFC so far, including a win last time out as he now squares up against Cody Gibson, who suffered back-to-back losses when he re-entered the UFC in 2023, but has since picked up a couple of victories.
The 30-year-old Blackshear is perhaps a bit better than his indifferent record in the Octagon suggests. For instance, the draw he picked up in his UFC debut was against Youssef Zalal, whose gone on to win seven fights in a row. Four his UFC fights also took place in the space of just six months in 2023, including two bouts on successive weekends. He only went 2-2 during that questionable flurry of fights, but did claim a very rare ‘Twister’ submission win and a TKO along the way. Blackshear is an athletic fighter who is at his best on the mat with good grappling resulting in 10 career submission wins, while he can wrestle too and is a capable striking with speed on his side.
The 37-year-old Gibson initially appeared in the UFC back in 2014, but tough matchmaking meant he lost three of his four fights before being shown the exit door. Gibson performed well on the regional scene for a few years though, which paved the way to a place on TUF Season 31, where he made it to the bantamweight final. Gibson is a fairly well-rounded fighter who likes to stay active and push the pace, whether on the feet or with his solid wrestling and submission threat. Gibson’s cardio can be an issue though, and while he is a respectable offensive grappler he has been submitted a few times.
Blackshear will have a speed advantage on the feet here, but I think it’s his grappling game that will prove to be his best weapon as he locks in a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Da’Mon Blackshear wins by submission in Rd2.
Brendson Ribeiro vs. Diyar Nurgozhay
Brendson Ribeiro’s UFC career didn’t get off to a good start with back-to-back losses, but he’s since earned his first win and now takes on an unbeaten newcomer in Diyar Nurgozhay, who won his Contender Series fight by KO to go 10-0 in his career so far.
The 28-year-old is 6ft 3″ tall, but more signifcantly has a whopping 81″ reach, giving his a 7″ advantage of his Nurghozhay in that regard. Generally speaking Ribeiro’s gameplan has been kill-or-be-killed, going the distance just three times in his 16-7 career to date. Ribeiro’s powerful striking and submission ability has led him to an aggressive approach that’s often resulted in quick finishes. However, it can also lead him into trouble as despite his reach advantage he can get drawn into a close-range brawl and doesn’t have the best durability, having been knocked out a couple of times and TKO’d once in the past few years. One of those was a KO defeat in his UFC debut and perhaps that ‘s been something of a wake-up call as he has been a bit less reckless in his last two appearances, which coincidentally both went to the judges scorecards.
The 27-year-old Nurgozhay also has good finishing ability, but is a much more careful striker than Ribeiro. Nurgozhay is more economical with his output and uses good technique to land effectively on the counter with power, whether with his punches or kicks. Nurgozhay can opt to keep the fight standing with good takedown defense, but he is able to grapple too when required.
Nurghozhay’s shouldn’t have too much difficulty finding a home for his cautious but calculated counter-striking here, and I think he has the power to find a TKO finish in the 2nd round.
Pick: Diyar Nurgozhay wins by TKO in Rd2.
Seung-woo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos
Sweun-Whoo Choi only has one win to show from his previous five UFC fights, putting him under pressure to get a win against new Contender Series recruit Kevin Vallejos, who arrives in the promotion with a 14-1 record.
The 32-year-old Choi is a former bronze medalist at the Muay Thai World Championships while representing South Korea all the way back in 2010. Years later he transitioned to MMA and made his way to the UFC, but has only gone 4-6. Choi is tall for a featherweight and as such will carry a 4″ height and 6″ reach advantage into this fight. He’ll look to utlize his muay thai from range, and in the clinch at closer quarters, has good power, but isn’t the most active striker. Choi’s defense isn’t the best and he can be hurt, which has resulted in a decline in his durability, having been stopped in the first round via strikes in two of last three Octagon appearances, and he’s been submitted twice in the UFC as well.
The 23-year-old Vallejos had been active fighting in Argentina prior to joining the UFC and first attempted to get into the UFC in 2023 via the Contender Series, only to come up against a certain Jean Silva, who has since gone on to become a rising star in the Octagon. To his credit, Vallejos actually took him to the scorecards, and went on to win his 2nd fight on the show a year later via a 1st round TKO. Vallejos has good compact boxing ability and targets the body nicely as well as the head, while he also kicks well too. He’s compiled 10 stoppage wins via strikes in his career so far and is willing to go to the mat too.
Choi is having a tough time of it trying to survive in the UFC as his punch resistance fades and I don’t think it’s going to get any easier for him here as the debuting Vallejos looks to have the power to put him away via TKO in the first round.
Pick: Kevin Vallejos wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
Stephanie Luciano vs. Sam Hughes
You Su-young vs. AJ Cunningham
Carlos Vera vs. Josias Musasa
Daniel Barez vs. André Lima
Josiane Nunes vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Evan Elder vs. MarQuel Mederos
Yuneisy Duben vs. Carli Judice
