UFC 296 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for the final show of the year below.
Main Card
Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
After back-to-back wins over Kamaru Usman took his unbeaten run to 12 fights, welterweight champion Leon Edwards now faces a new challenge in the shape of Colby Covington, who has been out for almost two years since convincingly beating his rival Jorge Masvidal on the scorecards.
Edwards has demonstrated admirably well-rounded skills during his seven-year unbeaten streak. The 32-year-old is a skilled striker who has a somewhat cautious approach, but has very good technique, speed and power in his punches and kicks when he does pull the trigger, while staying composed defensively. He also manages distance well and will have a 3″ height and 2″ reach advantage here. The intriguing thing is that during his UFC run he’s actually shown surprisingly good wrestling ability for a UK fighter and has actively utilised that at times to control opponents on top, while he’s also not easy to take down or keep grounded.
Covington is a strong wrestler who has weaponised his strong cardio to get the most out of his MMA game. that enables him to be relentless in his pursuit of takedowns and clinch work, while on the feet his high-output striking style helps make up for his lack of stopping power and creative flair. Covington’s two-year layoff is a concern though at this stage in his career when he’s now 35 and with there still being some lingering doubts about just how much his previous wars with Usman may have taken from him.
If Covington does still have the ability and desire to perform at his best then his constant pressure could potentially be problematic for Edwards more reserved style. However, I do think that the champ’s superior technique and power on the feet, together with being able to be somewhat competitive in the wrestling department will enable him to fight his way to a decision victory to retain the title.
Pick: Leon Edwards wins by decision.
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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
After winning the flyweight title with a split-decision victory over Brandon Moreno, Alexandre Pantoja now heads into a rematch against Brandon Royval, who has gone on a three-fight winning streak since suffering a submission loss to the champ the last time they fought in 2021.
The first fight between the two proved to be very entertaining, with Pantoja utilizing his wrestling well to bring Royval down and take his back multiple times, while Royval was continually initiating scrambles and threatened well with leg locks at one stage. On the feet the action was also intense and competitive, but in the end it was Pantoja bringing the fight to the mat again in the 2nd round that led to his submission win.
Pantoja will draw confidence from the fact that he’s already proven he can beat the same opponent on multiple occasions, with his latest win over Moreno actually being the 3rd time he’d beaten him (twice in the UFC, once on TUF). And though they have different styles, Moreno does share Royval’s high-octane intensity, which Pantoja has proven he’s very capable of matching.
It’s still a tricky fight though as Royval speed, versatility and creativity on the feet and the mat can create fight-ending opportunities. At the same time though I do think that frenetic style will provide opportunities for the more calculated Pantoja to exploit, and his sizeable wrestling advantage will continue to be a deciding factor, enabling him to get the fight to the floor again and work towards another submission, this time in the third round.
Pick: Alexandre Pantoja wins by submission in Rd3.
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Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson
Shavkat Rakhmonov has gone undefeated in his 17-fight career to date, including five wins in the UFC so far. Now he’ll take off a highly regarded former title contender in Stephen Thompson, who is coming off a TKO victory over Kevin Holland.
At 29-years-old Rakhmonov is a fighter who has shown many strengths and little in the way of weaknesses. He’s a big, athletic middleweight with solid, compact boxing ability that’s complimented by a versatile kicking arsenal and a granite chin. Meanwhile he works very well in the clinch, has good wrestling, thumping ground-and-pound and is a big threat via submissions. All in all that’s meant Rakhmonov has never failed to finish a fight inside the distance, with 8 of his career wins coming via strikes and the other 9 by submission.
At 40-years-old Thompson is certainly a fair distance from his prime years, but to his credit he’s aged very gracefully and still retains a lot of the speed, agility and clean technique that helped him carve out a role as an elite striker in the UFC. His initial karate point-fighting background still informs his approach to fighting all these years later as though he’s capable of spectacular highlight-reel finishes, he’s generally more about staying light on his feet, managing distance expertly and picking the right moments to land, particularly with lightning quick kicks. His reflexes aren’t quite what they once were though so there is more of a chance to land damaging blows than in the past and his lack of a solid ground-game continues to be problematic at the highest level.
Thompson’s age is certainly a factor here, but even putting that aside this is a rough stylistic match-up for him and I think Rakhmonov’s major advantage in wrestling and grappling will come into play as he works his way to a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins by submission in Rd2.
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Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
Just a few months ahead of his 40th birthday, Tony Ferguson will be attempting to dig himself out of a six-fight losing slump when he takes on Paddy Pimblett, who has spent the last year out due to an ankle injury, but now returns looking to add to his four-fight unbeaten run in the promotion.
Ferguson has looked a shadow of his former self in the past few years and in an attempt to turn things around he’s enlisted the help of ex-Navy Seal and ultramarathon runner David Goggins. In typical Tony fashion it’s a quirky choice and perhaps also a questionable one as he’s always had excellent cardio and that’s not the reason for his failing form. Instead it feels like all the wars he’s had in the Octagon have finally caught up to him and as such he can no longer rely on his previous extreme durability to outlast opponents in a war of attrition, which was a key component of his game. In addition, weaknesses in his ground game have been exposed, leaving talented wrestlers and grapplers with a clear avenue to gain the upperhand against him.
With all that being said, even though the 28-year-old Pimblett is still in his prime years and showing signs of genuine star power during his winning run, the reality is that his performances often leave a lot to be desired. He certainly hits hard on the feet, but he’s not the most fundamentally sound striker and he is extremely hittable, which has led to him being rocked several times, before showing good powers of recovery to bounce back and win. Meanwhile, his defensive wrestling in particular is on the weak side, but he does have good finishing instincts via submission that he’s put to good use throughout his career.
In his prime Ferguson was the better of the two and in all honesty I think Pimblett will find the going tough against anyone that’s ranked in the lightweight division. However, at this particular moment in time I feel he can get the job done here due to Ferguson’s decline, leading to a 2nd round submission stoppage.
I suspect Pimblett will quickly run into trouble against virtually anybody that’s ranked at 155lbs, and an in his prime Ferguson was certainly the better, more skilled fighter, but the veteran does look shot at this point, so I’ll take Pimblett to find a submission by the second round.
Pick: Paddy Pimblett wins by submission in Rd2.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Josh Emmett
Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa
Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher
Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski
Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden
Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida
Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev
Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
