UFC 305 takes place tomorrow night in Perth, Australia and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
Israel Adesanya’s shock middleweight title loss to Sean Strickland last year led to Dricus du Plessis then beating Strickland a few months later to win the belt. That now sets up a long awaited title showdown between the two rivals in Australia on Saturday night.
The 30-year-old du Plessis is a powerhouse who has blasted through much of his competition in the UFC so far, notching up five finishes during his 7-0 run in the promotion so far. The muscular middleweight has leaned into quite a brute-force approach on the feet as he’s not the most technically sound striker and has significant defensive weaknesses, but makes up for that by wielding serious knockout power and he’s able to overwhelm opponents with his aggression, intensity and durability. It’s an energetic approach that given his body type you would assume would take a heavy toll on his gas tank, but though he can look winded at times he has a knack for being able to fight on regardless. DDP is also not just a one-trick pony as he also has a solid wrestling game that can be set up by his forward-pressing striking and his impressive finishing rate is almost evenly split between submissions and strikes.
The 35-year-old Adesanya is returning to action after an 11-month layoff, which he took to heal up from undisclosed injuries. It also feels like he needed time to recharge his batteries mentally too as he looked jaded during his loss to Strickland and had also been through two gruelling fights with his nemesis Alex Pereira before that. Adesanya’s striking game is in stark contrast to DDP’s as he has a far more slick, sophisticated and cerebral approach. As a long-time kickboxing ace he is of course highly technical with both his punches and kicks, and he picks his shots with purpose and precision, while also still having knockout potential. He has excellent distance management and footwork too, but he does operate more effectively when he has room to operate and isn’t being constantly pressured. Meanwhile, Adesanya has respectable takedown defense and though he wants to avoid going to the mat he’s not completely lost if he is taken down.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Adesanya is the better striker of the two here. At his best his style matches up very well against du Plessis as he’s the perfect opponent to keep him at bay and exploit the glaring holes in his defense when he comes in on the attack. Doubts do creep in though when you consider Adesanya’s poor performance last time out and the general feeling that after a long kickboxing career and years of fighting at the highest level in the UFC too that he’s feeling the strain of it mentally as well as physically. And meanwhile there’s no such concerns for DDP, who is hungry for success, is fearless in his approach, and will try to make life uncomfortable for his rival by continually applying pressure. I think it’s du Plessis ground game that could prove to be the difference-maker though, threatening with takedowns that will throw Adesanya off his striking game and eventually lead him to a third round submission victory.
Pick: Dricus du Plessis wins by submission in Rd3.
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Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
Former flyweight title challengers meet in the co-main event, with Kai Kara-France trying to bounce back after a couple of losses, while Steve Erceg is just a few months removed from a competitive decision loss to current champ Alexandre Pantoja.
The 31-year-old Kara-France has been out of action for the best part of a year after suffering a bad concussion in training last September that led to him being advised to take a lengthy timeout to recover. That’s clearly a concern heading into his comeback fight then, but in general durability hasn’t been an issue for him during his time in the UFC, though he was KO’d twice right at the start of his career. Kara-France is a talented striker who has hard-hitting, technical boxing, will work kicks to the legs and body nicely and fights at a high pace. He also has good takedown defense and is usually capable of working back to his feet if put down, though he has been submitted a few times.
The 29-year-old Erceg has been a pleasant surprise in the UFC so far. He’s a skilled grappler who takes the back well, has a number of wins by rear-naked choke and also has solid, methodical wrestling ability as well to get the fight to the mat in the first place and keep it there. However, during his time in the UFC he’s also shown off a very competent striking game too, playing off an accurate jab, showing a good sense of distance and reading his opponents well to land without being hit in return. He also does a good job of staying calm and composed in the heat of the moment and has five-round cardio.
Kara-France may still be the more refined striker overall here, but I think Erceg is good enough to stay somewhat competitive, and I feel his wrestling and grappling is good enough to get some key takedowns and enjoy periods of control here. He’ll also have the better cardio late in the fight, so perhaps a submission in the third round might be in play here, but I’ll take ‘Astro Boy’ to secure a decision victory.
Pick: Steve Erceg wins by decision.
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Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
Three victories have taken Mateusz Gamrot to No.5 in the 155lb rankings as he now squares up to Dan Hooker, who has notched up back-to-back wins to reach the No.11 spot.
The 33-year-old Gamrot is an industrious all-rounder whose ground game in particular has proven to be challenging for his opponents to deal with. Gamrot is capable on the feet too though as while he’s not the most skilled or hard-hitting he does maintain a good work-rate and likes to close the distance with swarms of strikes. And that sets him up nicely for takedown attempts, which is where he excels as he is a relentless wrestler who can also grapple and welcomes scrambling opportunities. Gamrot is also well conditioned and has yet to be finished by either strikes or submission.
The 34-year-old Hooker is a spirited striker who is always up for a fight. He had a tough time not so long ago in which he lost four out of five fights, but has since bounced back nicely. He’ll enjoy a 2″ height and 4.5″ reach advantage here and he uses his long limbs effectively as he’s racked up finishes over the course of his career b punches, kicks, knees and elbows. His wrestling is actually ok when he chooses to use it and he can threaten with submissions. That’ll be a tough ask against Gamrot though and meanwhile back on the feet a point of concern is that he’s been in a lot of wars and taken plenty of damage over the years, even in fights he’s won, and at this stage in his career that could start to take a toll on him.
I think this is a good stylistic match-up for Gamrot as he’ll have a big advantage on the mat and is likely to utilize that early and often. There’s potential for a ground-and-pound or submission finish, but I think in the end he’ll grind this one out to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Mateusz Gamrot wins by decision.
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Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Tai Tuivasa is in real need of a reversal of fortunes on Saturday night after failing to earn a win in his last four Octagon outings. Now he’ll take on Jairzinho Rozenstruik, whose own form has been inconsistent, but he is coming off a TKO win.
This isn’t the first time 31-year-old Tuivasa’s had to fight himself out of a tough spot as he was also on the verge of being released back in 2019 after three losses in a row, but he then came back in style with five big wins. He’s added a lot of extra miles on the clock since then though, including being KO’d twice in his recent losing slump, while his latest two submission losses also highlight the lack of improvement in his ground game over the years. Still, there’s no doubt Tuivasa’s offensive threat on the feet is still there as he is extremely heavy-handed, he moves well for his size and he does have a basic but capable kickboxing foundation to work from. He’s a crowd-pleaser though and his desire to get a knockout finish tends to lure him into risky brawls, and it’s doubtful if he’ll ever move away from that.
The 36-year-old Rozenstruik is a very experienced kickboxer who has 13 T(KO) wins from 14 career victories in MMA, which just so happens to be the same as his opponent Tuivasa. However, despite that Rozenstruik is not all that aggressive in his approach and in fact can actually appear quite gun-shy at times, preferring to hang out on the outside and wait for an opportunity to counter-strike. Depending on the opponent that can lead to an uneventful fight, but when he does go on the attack he is explosive and powerful enough to end fights in the blink of an eye. He has suffered a couple of quick losses via strikes against Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov though and he has no real ground game to speak of.
While some fighters can mirror Rozenstruik’s cautious counter-striking, I don’t expect that to be the case with Tuivasa, who will almost certainly take the fight to him. And that’s exactly when Rozenstruik is at his most dangerous, and so I think ‘Bam Bam’ could end up in the firing line here as he marches forward in the opening round and gets caught with counter-strikes that lead Rozenstruik to a 1st round KO victory.
Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins by KO in Rd1.
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Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
Li Jingliang has gone back-and-forth between wins and losses in his last six Octagon outings and now fights Carlos Prates, who has made an immediate impact in the UFC with back-to-back KO wins.
It’s been almost two years since we last saw the 36-year-old Jingliang due to him having suffered a nasty spinal injury. It’s actually the 2nd time he’s had to deal with back problems of this nature, but he claims to be fully healed now. We’ll have to wait and see if that’s the case, but before his layoff Jingliang was a sturdy, competitive welterweight. He has a rugged rather than refined striking style and tends to load up on his punches and kicks too much, but nonetheless he has had success with it, with 7 stoppage wins via strikes from 11 victories in total during his UFC run. Jingliang also has a strong chin and has yet to be defeated by strikes, while he can also transition to a more grinding wrestling approach too at times, complimented by solid ground-and-pound and decent grappling.
The 30-year-old Prates is 1″ taller than Jingliang, but has 7″ more in reach. He’s a patient striker who likes to work on the outside, but has proven to be something of a sniper with the speed, power and precision of his strikes having led him to a long string of stoppage wins in recent years, including on the Contender Series and his two fights in the UFC so far.
Jingliang’s spine issue is obviously a worry here, and Prates counter-striking feels like an effective foil for Jingliang’s more unrefined, aggressive stand-up game, so even though ‘The Leech’ has very good durability I think he’ll get into trouble here and end up being finished by TKO in the 2nd round.
Pick: Carlos Prates wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker
Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos
Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos
Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns
Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes
Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn
Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesús Santos Aguilar
