UFC 310 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura
Flyweight titleholder Alexandre Pantoja has made to defenses of the belt so far and now faces a debuting challenger in Kai Asakura, a star in Japan who was previously Rizin’s bantamweight champion.
The 34-year-old Pantoja is a hard-headed, well-rounded and experienced fighter who has proven his worth by defeating other divisional mainstays like Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval multiple times over the years. Pantoja likes to keep the pressure on his opponents wherever the fight goes, and though he’s not the most slick and technical on the feet he makes up for it with his combative boxing and does a good job of winning exchanges at close quarters, albeit aided by the fact that he’s extremely durable. It also helps that Pantoja transitions well from striking to takedown attempts, and really it’s from there that he’s at his best as he has good wrestling, he scrambles well, is often able to take his opponent’s back, and is a proven submission threat. One potential concern for Pantoja is that his high pace often visibly takes a toll on his cardio as the fight goes on, though so far he’s shown an impressive knack for fighting through that, and he’s still yet to be T(KO)’d or submitted in his 17-year career.
The 31-year-old Asakura is likely to be a fresh face for many UFC fans, but he is a star over in Japan, where not only does he hold a 21-4 career record and been a two-time Rizin champion, but is also a well-known Youtuber there with over a million followers. During his career he’s crossed paths with a few notable names, like Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi, and he actually holds both a win and a loss against each of them. Asakura is primarily a potent striker with knockout power in his fists, but he also makes effective use of knee strikes too, and indeed his last two wins came via knees to the body. He is more vulnerable defensively though and has been finished on a few occasions over the years. Asaukra also has decent takedown defense and while his grappling isn’t as good as his striking he is fairly capable.
Going up against Pantoja by itself is a big challenge, but Asakura will also have to contend with the fact that he’s dropping down a division for this title opportunity, as well as it being his first fight in the U.S., having to compete in a cage instead of the ring, and also having never fought five rounds before. With that in mind it feels like the odds are stacked against him here, though with his power he always has a chance. Pantoja’s chin is notoriously difficult to crack though, and with his transitions to takedowns, superior ground game and five-round experience I think he’ll wear out the challenger and eventually find a submission by the fourth round, if not earlier.
Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins by submission in Rd4.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry
The co-main event delivers a welterweight title eliminator between two undefeated fighters, with Shavkat Rakhmonov having gone 18-0 (6-0 in the UFC) in his career to date, while Ian Garry is 15-0 (8-0 in the UFC).
The 30-year-old Rakhmonov quickly stood out from the crowd in the division due to the fact that his polished all-round skill-set and relentless pressure has overwhelmed his opponents and left little sign of any obvious weaknesses. On the feet he has compact boxing and possesses good power, along with a varied kicking arsenal, and while he likes to push the pace he also stays defensively sound and has a good chin. Rakhmonov is good in the clinch as well, and continues to be a menace on the mat with his well-versed wrestling and grappling. So he’s very much the complete package as a fighter, and the results speak for themselves in that regard, with all 18 of his career wins being by either strikes or submission, including 5 submissions and a KO win during his time in the UFC so far.
The 27-year-old Garry is a slick, self-assured kickboxer who likes to operate from distance with good footwork, clean boxing technique and a fluid kicking game. He fights tall and does have a 2″ height advantage here, but he’ll actually be giving up 3″ in reach to Rakhmonov. He has respectable power and can finish fights, but he doesn’t force the issue and in recent fights he’s been a bit more conservative in his approach and looked to pick his shots. Though striking is his forte Garry has generally looked quite comfortable when he’s had to utilize his wrestling or grappling, although he hasn’t yet been much of a finishing threat there, with only one submission win to his name.
If these two hadn’t crossed paths they had the ability to suggest they each had a chance at being a title contender. Of the two it’s Rakhmonov who looked the most likely to go all the way though thanks to having so many strings to his bow. In a pure kickboxing battle Garry might have the edge, but once Rakhmonov draws upon his broader skill-set to get this fight to the mat I think he should be able to control the fight and go on to secure yet another finish by the third round via submission.
Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins by submission in Rd3.
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov
After losing the heavyweight title to Jon Jones last year, Gane has since got back to winning ways by TKO’ing Sergey Spivak and will now try to end the year on a high in a rematch against Alexander Volkov, who suffered a unanimous decision defeat when they first met in 2021, but is currently riding the momentum of a four-fight winning run.
The 34-year-old Gane remains an imposing physical specimen, while also being uncommonly athletic and light on his feet for his size. He’s also an intelligent fighter who cuts a composed figure in the Octagon, opting not to just charge in swinging for the fences and instead favoring a more calculated, technical kickboxing style from a safe distance, with fast footwork and a 6ft 5″ frame and 81″ reach enabling him to get in and out of range without being hit too often in return. He has good cardio too, so while he does at times flash knockout power, he is more often than not content to just outpoint opponents over the course of a fight. Meanwhile, Gane has at times been able to show off some offensive wrestling and submission chops, but in recent times his defensive flaws on the mat have been exposed, with Francis Ngannou able to outwrestle him and Jon Jones tapping him out in less than a round.
Two years older than Gane at 36, Volkov is another heavyweight who likes to operate from range with his seasoned technical kickboxing ability. He’s tall at 6ft 7″ and has bulked up his previously lean frame over the years, which seems to have paid off as he has more power in his well-executed kicks and punches these days. Like Gane he doesn’t go all out for a finish though and is adept at piecing together combinations and gradually outstriking his opponents. Volkov prefers to keep the fight upright as possible, and has less to offer on the mat than Gane.
The last time these two fought it was a measured, tactical kickboxing fight and I don’t think much has changed in the years since to suggest that will be any different this time around, unless Gane lands one of his takedown attempts this time around. In the end I think Gane will again be able to be a bit quicker and craftier in order to secure another decision win.
Pick: Ciryl Gane wins by decision.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie
After being KO’d for the first time 12 months ago, Bryce Mitchell now returns to action against Kron Gracie, who has lost his last two fights.
The 30-year-old Mitchell gained a lot of traction early in his UFC run after racking up a six-fight winning streak, with his grappling ability being his best weapon, even resulting in a rare ‘twister’ submission victory. Truth be told that’s actually his only submission win in the UFC so far, but his control on top and good scrambling ensures he’s always difficult to deal with on the mat. Meanwhile his striking is distinctly less polished and more scrappy than his ground game, but it’s still functional. He’s generally quite fearless in his approach, but it’ll be interesting to see whether that’s changed now that he’s been KO’d and was coming off a tough loss to Ilia Topuria before that.
As the son of the legendary Rickson Gracie, it’s no surprise that the 36-year-old Gracie is a highly skilled grappler who made his mark on the BJJ scene before turning his attention to MMA. He started well with five submission wins in a row, including in his UFC debut, but he’s found the going tougher since. Cub Swanson exposed his limitations beyond BJJ back in 2019 and after that unanimous decision loss he disappeared for four years, only to re-emerge in 2023 and put a very underwhelming performance against Charles Jourdain. Whether another 18-months down the line he can start to make up for the short-comings in his striking and wrestling remains to be seen, but it seems like a big ask at this late stage in his career.
Both fighters here favor a grappling-orientated fight, but in Gracie’s case it tends to be his only option for success, whereas in this particular match-up Mitchell should prove to have the broader skill-set, and as such I’d expect him to keep this on the feet and comfortably outstrike Gracie to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Bryce Mitchell wins by decision.
Nate Landwehr vs. Doo-Ho Choi
Nate Landwehr earned a knockout victory earlier in the year and now fights Doo-Ho Choi, who is coming off his first win inside the Octagon in eight years over the summer.
The 36-year-old Landwehr became something of a cult favorite among fans for his all-action style, employing a high-volume striking style that shows little regard for technique or his own safety as he pressed forward eating punches to land his own. Thanks to his heart, stubborn determination and durability that worked out for him better than might have been expected, but a couple of first round losses early in his UFC run suggested there had to be a better way. And over time Landwehr has gradually tried to reign in his reckless ways, at least to an extent, while also having decent wrestling chops and even securing a couple of submission wins along the way.
Choi is another crowd-pleaser who made an immediate impression when he arrived in the 2015, with the youthful looks of ‘The Korean Superboy’ being in direct contrast to his knockout power and savage offensive bursts that led to KO wins in his first two Octagon outings. It was a very risky style though that quickly caught up with him, being TKO’d twice during a three-fight losing slump. Injuries and military service then kept him out of action for several years, before returning last year as a more mature fighter, picking up a draw and a win so far. The 33-year-old is still a good athlete with speed on his side, but he’s not as wild as before and is also more willing to make his mark on the mat as well as the feet these days.
I’m going to pick Choi to win on the scorecards here as I do feel there’s still untapped potential with him, and if he fights wisely he should be the quicker, cleaner striker. That being said it’s not a confident pick as Landwehr is tough to beat, and if they just choose to brawl then he’s likely to be the more durable of the two.
Pick: Doo-Ho Choi wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Dominick Reyes vs. Anthony Smith
Vicente Luque vs. Themba Gorimbo
Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling
Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle
Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van
Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin
Clay Guida vs. Chase Hooper
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Łukasz Brzeski
