UFC 326 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira
Max Holloway defended his BMF title last year by beating Dustin Poirier, and now he fronts UFC 326 against Charles Oliveira, who’s coming off a submission win over Mateusz Gamrot.
The 34-year-old is a beloved fighter who remains one of the UFC’s best strikers thanks to his high-level boxing, relentless volume, dailed-in distance management, high fight IQ, and exceptional durability. Despite his infamous last second KO win over Justin Gaethje he’s not traditionally a one-punch finisher, but he has a great knack for wearing down other leading fighters with his accurate, calculated combinations over time, opening up the possibility for finishes in the later rounds, or decisive decision victories. He also benefits from having excellent takedown defense, and has only lost via submission once.
The 36-year-old Oliveira is also held in very high regard by fans for his consistently entertaining fights over the years, and his ability to find a finish is second to none. The facts speak for themselves as the former lightweight champ already holds UFC records for most finishes (21), most submissions (17), and most bonuses (21), making him a very worthy contender for the ‘BMF’ title. Oliveira’s grappling is lethal and endlessly creative, but meanwhile his muay thai has developed to gives him enough firepower on the feet to be a threat there too, while also creating openings for scrambles or takedowns. His offensive style does leave opportunities for his opponents though, and so as well as being stopped via strikes several times he’s also been rocked on numerous occasions, and has a few losses via submission too.
Their first meeting over a decade ago ended early due to a freak injury, so this rematch feels long overdue. Stylistically, it’s a fantastic fight, but in the end I do lean towards Holloway here. His takedown defense will be crucial to help keep the fight upright, and from there he has the advantage with his sharper, wiser and more effective striking, together with having the sturdier chin, leading him to a third‑round TKO.
Pick: Max Holloway wins by TKO in rd3.
Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder
Caio Borralho’s seven‑fight UFC streak ended in September after a defeat on the scorecards to Nassourdine Imavov. He now faces Reinier de Ridder, whose own rise stalled after a TKO defeat to Brendan Allen brought a halt to a 4-0 run.
The 33-year-old Borralho had been in a strong run of form before the Imavov fight, but that matchup exposed some of the flaws in his game. While he’s athletic and has good bursts of explosive speed to land single strikes from range, there’s not much depth to Borralho’s striking when going up against a seasoned striker like Imavov, and his lack of volume was a real problem. Imavov did well to also shut down his wrestling, which is a key component of Borralho’s game. When he can gets fights to the mat, Borralho is strong has good grappling control, which he can use to patiently grind out wins, though he is also capable of working for submission finishes too.
De Ridder entered the UFC as a former two‑division ONE FC champion and quickly established himself with four wins in the space of less than a year. De Ridder is at his best with his high-level grappling game on the mat, where he shows good composure and has proven finishing ability, with 13 career submission wins to his name. He’s also been more willing to strike in the UFC than expected, given that his kickboxing can be quite stiff, but he’s shown he can still make it work at times, and he does have good knee strikes. The bigger issue is his cardio though, which failed him badly against Allen, and not for the first time in his career.
Borralho’s striking should play better here against de Ridder’s slower, less athletic and less polished stand‑up, while his stronger wrestling base gives him a good chance to steer clear of his opponent’s BJJ threat. With the conditioning edge also in his favor, I see Borralho winning by decision.
Pick: Caio Borralho wins by decision.
Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr
Rob Font suffered a loss last time out and now faces the 21‑year‑old Raul Rosas Jr, who rides a four‑fight winning streak into his biggest fight yet.
Font’s form has had more downs than ups in recent years. After dropping four of five fights by late 2023, he did manage to rebound with wins over Kyler Phillips and Jean Matsumoto, but then suffered another setback against rising prospect in David Martinez last September. Now 38, Font finds himself in a gatekeeper role against an opponent 17 years younger than him on Saturday night. Font’ game still revolves around his boxing, and in particular his seasoned jab. As such he’s not a knockout puncher, but he uses pace, pressure and volume to his advantage, and can mix in an occasional takedown. He remains very durable, having never finished via strikes in 31 fights, and despite being vulnerable to takedowns he’s only been submitted once.
Rosas Jr signed for the UFC via the Contender Series at just 17-years-old, has gone 5‑1 so far, albeit not fighting the toughest level of opposition. Now 21, he’ brings ‘s still at his best when he’s able to utilize his talent for grappling, while his wrestling is an asset too and aided by his natural physical strength. His striking remains a work-in-progress and his pacing has been an issue at times, but he’s clearly improving from fight to fight, which bodes well for the future.
This match-up represents a significant step up in opposition for Rosas Jr, but he’s still at an age where he’s continually improving, and the fact that Font’s takedown defense is a weak point plays in his favor, so I favor him to control enough of the fight on the mat to earn a decision victory.
Pick: Raul Rosas Jr wins by decision.
Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson
Drew Dober claimed a much‑needed TKO win last time out, while fellow veteran Michael Johnson has unexpectedly revived his career with three straight victories.
The 37-year-old Dober had lost four of his last five fights before his win back in October, and the most worrying part for a fighter known for his granite chin was that three of those defeats were by TKO. When he’s not eating too many punches for his own good, he’s certainly a dangerous brawler though, racking up 15 knockout wins, and having claimed finishes in each of his last eight UFC victories. His all-round game is limited though, with his takedown defense being shaky, while he’s also been submitted four times in the UFC. And now durability concerns add another vulnerability into the mix.
The 39-year-old Johnson is one of the division’s longest‑serving fighters, competing in the Octagon since winning TUF Season 12 back in 2010. It certainly was far from certain he’d make it this far though given that he’s only mustered a 16-15 record along the way. His recent late-career run of form is a reminder however that on his day he is still is a capable fighter. He still brings fast hands and footwork for his age, has good boxing, respectable power, and solid takedown defense. ong‑standing issues remain though as there can be lapses in his decision‑making, while he’s had a glaring vulnerability to submissions over the years, and he’s not as durable as he once was.
Both men are aging and have their flaws, but Johnson’s cleaner technique, speed and footwork advantage may well just give him the tools to avoid Dober’s power strikes and edge out a decision win.
Pick: Michael Johnson to win by decision.
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira
It’s ‘Robocop’ vs ‘The Hulk’ in the main card opener as Gregory Rodrigues come in after back-to-back victories to rematch Brunno Ferreira, who is on a three-fight winning run.
The 34-year-old Rodrigues is a former decorated BJJ black belt who also has wrestling credentials, who then moved on to competing in MMA. Despite that skill-set, Rodrigues loves to battle it out on the feet. And to be fair he has proven his worth there too as his boxing has improved over time and his power is clear to see, with six of his nine UFC wins coming via strikes. He has good athleticism and likes to apply pressure, but he can overdo it and leave his chin exposed, which has led to three losses via strikes in his UFC run. He showed a bit more tactical discipline against Roman Kopylov though, but it would still be good to see him take more advantage of his ground game.
The 33-year-old Ferreira is an explosive striker who already demonstrated his one-punch power by KO’ing Rodrigues in the first round of their short‑notice fight back in 2023. He’s not a technical striker or grappler, but Ferreira is fully committed on every strike he throws, can also use his judo to aid takedown attempts, and is a threat via ground-and-pound and submission on the mat. That’s led to 14 of his 15 career victories ending inside the distance, and he’s particularly dangerous early in the fight.
Rodrigues is the better all-round fighter here, but his defensive lapses make Ferreira’s power a constant danger again. Still, if he avoids brawling, Rodrigues has what it takes to emerge with a decision victory.
Pick: Gregory Rodrigues wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long
Donte Johnson vs Dusko Todorovic
Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes
Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar
JooSang Yoo vs Gaston Bolanos
Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato
