UFC 329 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway
Conor McGregor finally returns nearly five years after his leg break against Dustin Poirier, and jumps straight into a major welterweight rematch with Max Holloway, who he previously beat by unanimous decision 13 years ago down at featherweight.
It’s an ambitious comeback at 38‑year‑old after such a long layoff and a brutal injury, but nevertheless McGregor’s trademark swagger and self-belief appears to be intact and, at least on a surface level, appears to be in good physical condition.
Up at 170lbs, McGregor will enjoy some meaningful advantages as he’s the naturally bigger man with previous experience in the weight class, while Holloway has never been beyond 155lbs before. Regardless of weight-class, McGregor has always carried much more stopping power than Holloway, will benefit from a five‑inch reach edge, and in his heyday he had excellent instincts for picking out the right shot at the right time, and was a ruthless finisher.
A big issue for McGregor has been cardio though, especially up at welterweight, and having never quite managed to get that under control in his prime, it’s going to be even harder to address at his age after five years on the sidelines enjoying a party lifestyle. And so that plays into the 34-year-old Holloway’s hands as he’s always been a very well conditioned fighter who uses his finely-tuned technical boxing to deliver crisp, high-volume combinations to the body and head all fight long, while also having good footwork and distance management. Even so, Holloway can still be hittable, which for much of his career wasn’t an issue due to his impressive durability, but he’s been in a lot of wars now, and was KO’d for the first time in his career by Ilia Topuria a few fights ago.
Regardless of the ring-rust, I do still expect McGregor to be a genuine threat early in this fight with his size and power advantage, together with his natural killer instinct. Holloway has been teasing the fact that he wants to take him into deep waters though, and that’s the smart strategy as I find it hard to imagine ‘The Notorious’ having much left in the tank by the third round against a fighter with Holloway’s pace and activity. As such I think Holloway will have a firm grasp of the fight by the championship rounds, but won’t quite be able to deliver a fight-ending blow and so will have to settle for a decision victory.
Pick: Max Holloway wins by decision.
Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Paddy Pimblett will look to rebound from his first UFC loss against Justin Gaethje when he fights Benoit Saint Denis, who comes in off a three-fight winning streak.
The 31-year-old Pimblett had to show off his heart and durability to reach the final bell against the hard-hitting Gaethje, but his efforts look better in hindsight given his opponent’s subsequent TKO beatdown of Ilia Topuria. Pimblett is no stranger to having to battle back from adversity in fights as he’s always had defensive issues and often leaves his chin exposed. However, up until his last fight he’d had a knack for finding a way to win in the end, whether with his own improving boxing game and good power, or with his crafty grappling game that’s earned him 10 submission victories. He’s not going to be able to rely on his strong chin forever though if he wants to continue competing against the best the division has to offer.
The 30-year-old Saint Denis also built his early success around being tough enough to walk through strikes to land his own and apply constant pressure both on the feet and on the mat. However, after a series of stoppage wins, KO and TKO losses to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano respectively forced him to rethink his strategy amid fears that his chin was fading. He’s since leaned more on taking the fight to the mat with his solid wrestling and proven submission ability that had previously been a major component of his success on the regional circuit. And so far that’s worked out nicely for him, earning two submission wins and a ground‑and‑pound TKO over Dan Hooker too. He did also regain a little confidence in his stand-up by KO’ing the notoriously chinny Beneil Dariush in 16 seconds last year, but concerns over his own durability still remain if he gets into an extended fire-fight.
Both men present a threat wherever this fight goes here. However, while BSD might have the edge in wrestling, Pimblett’s grappling is arguably his best weapon, so he won’t be phased by going to the mat. And meanwhile ‘The Baddy’s’ superior durability may well prove to be a major factor in the striking exchanges, which I think will lead him to a 2nd round TKO victory.
Pick: Paddy Pimblett wins by TKO in Rd2.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
Cory Sandhagen returns from a failed title challenge to rematch Mario Bautista, who has won nine of his last 10 fights.
Sandhagen remains the only fighter to have submitted Bautista after catching him in a 1st round armbar back 2019. However, while he his can mix in an occasional takedown and grapple when needed, his game is still largely built around versatile, rangy and active striking ability with kicks at all levels, capable boxing, sharp knees and elbows, and the occasional accurate spinning attack. It’s a skill-set that’s not quite took him all the way to title glory as he’s now fallen just short several times, but it’s been enough to constantly keep him right in the mix, and he’s beaten numerous quality opponents over the years.
The 33-year-old Bautista doesn’t have the most dazzling technique, but he’s a well‑rounded, hard‑working and hard-headed fighter who has the conditioning to push a good pace for all three rounds. He’s not much of a finisher on the feet, but he makes up for that with pressure and volume, strong clinch work, and will work in takedowns too. And on the mat he’s shown more of a cutting edge, with seven submission wins, including his finish of Vinicius Oliveira earlier in the year.
I think Sanhagen can match Bautista’s pace and has a significant striking advantage here, while he can also handle himself on the mat too, leading him to a win on the scorecards this time around.
Prediction: Cory Sandhagen to win by decision.
Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
Brandon Royval lost both his fights last year, while Lone’er Kavanagh comes in off a breakout win over former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno.
The 33-year-old Royval has generally been a durable fighter over the years, but he was KO’d by the heavy-handed Manel Kape in the 1st round last time out. That is a potential concern when you consider that he’d also had to cancel a fight early last year due to suffering a couple of concussions in quick-succession during training, though he did make it to the final bell in a five-round war with Joshua Van a few months later. Royval’s not a fighter who is likely to veer away from his all-action style as his whole game is built off of maintaining a frenetic pace wherever the fight goes. On the feet Royval throws everything but the kitchen sink at his opponents with varied, high-volume attacks that often seem off-the-cuff and unpredictable. Despite that he’s actually never been much of a finisher on the feet, but he’s just as energetic on the mat, and from there his constant scrambles can lead to submission finishes, having picked up 9 over the years.
Kavanagh has built steady momentum from a successful stint in the Cage Warriors promotion through to earning a KO win on the Contender Series and then two decision wins in the UFC. However, a KO loss to Charles Johnson last summer threatened to derail the 27-year-old’s momentum. Instead he was handed a big late-notice opportunity to headline a fight opposite former champ Moreno and took it in his stride, with his fast, technical kickboxing being complimented by good composure, patience and conditioning to best him over five rounds.
Royval will force exchanges, but Kavanagh’s slicker technique and composure will enable him to land the cleaner strikes and could even lead to a late stoppage, though I’ll say he wins by decision.
Pick: Lone’er Kavanagh wins by decision.
King Green vs. Terrance McKinney
King Green has quickly compiled a three‑fight winning streak since last December, while Terrance McKinney comes off a 24‑second KO of Kyle Nelson and is 3–2 in his last five Octagon appearances.
There had been a concern that veteran campaigner Green was running out of steam sufering three first‑round losses in a four‑fight stretch, not so long ago, including two by KO. However, despite being about to turn 40-years-old in a couple of months, Green has managed to fight of Father Time for now with convincing wins over the likes of Daniel Zellhuber and Jeremy Stephens. Green continues to be a crafty competitor whose unorthodox defense, punches from unexpected angles, accurate counters and ability to set traps can make him difficult to deal with, while he’s also capable on the mat too. His style does rely heavily on speed, reflexes and durability though, which becomes harder to pull off at his age, and so it’s perhaps not a coincidence that four of his six losses via strikes have come in the past few years.
The 31-year-old McKinney is a fighter with only one goal – to try to end his fights as quickly as possible, even if that puts him at risk of being finished himself. 26 fights into his career he’s still never gone to a judges decision, with only four fights making it beyond the first five minutes. MckInney comes rushing out the gates swinging for the fences, with explosive punches, kicks, knees, elbows all being thrown with reckless abandon, while he will also eagerly transition to wild scrambles that can set up submission opportunities. That’s led to nine wins by strikes and nine by submission, including several stoppages inside of the first minute. However, his lack of defense and live-by-the-sword, die-by-the-sword approach means that he can also easily run into a fight-ending strike or submission himself, leading to an 18-8 career record overall.
Green usually thrives when he can bait opponents into engaging on his terms, but McKinney shows little interest in what his opponents are doing and will just attempt to steamroller them regardless of what they are trying to do. As such, while it’s very risk, his early ferocity and power will severely test Green’s aging chin, and so while the fight could go badly for him if the fight goes beyond the first few minutes, I’ll take MckInney to claim an early TKO victory.
Pick: Terence McKinney wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov
Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison
Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yañez
Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III
Tracy Cortez vs. Wang Cong
Damian Pinas vs. César Almeida
Ryan Gandra vs. Zachary Reese
Alessandro Costa vs. Cody Durden
