UFC Fight Night 238 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
Jairzino Rozenstruik has lost three of his last four fights, including being submitted by Jailton Almeida last time out. Now he goes up against Shamil Gaziev, who won his UFC debut after joining from the Contender Series to go 12-0 as a pro-fighter.
A very experienced kickboxer, Rozenstruik moved on to competing full-time in MMA in 2017 and started strongly reaching 10-0 by the end of 2019, including four wins via strikes in the UFC. He’s struggled to maintain that form since though, manging to go just 3-5 in the past few years. For someone with his striking experience and explosive knockout power he’s become surprisingly gun-shy and can go through large spells of inactivity during his fights, pinning all his hopes on landing a well-timed counter-strike. Beyond that Rozenstruik doesn’t have much to offer, with his ground game being virtually non-existent, though he claims to have worked on it for this camp.
The 34-year-old Gaziev will benefit in this match-up from being significantly more well-rounded, with his wrestling and grappling opening up clear opportunities for him to gain the upper-hand. He is also a solid striker too though and has respectable power, but will need to be careful of defensive lapses given Rozenstruik’s ablility to swiftly attack on the counter.
I don’t see Gaziev looking to stand and trade with Rozenstruik for three rounds and instead expect him to punish him for his lack of skill on the mat. As such takedown entries will be where he could be most vulnerable here, but I’ll take him to successfully bring Rozenstruik down and soften him up with strikes to set up an eventual submission finish in the 2nd round.
Pick: Shamil Gaziev wins by submission in Rd2.
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Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro
Vitor Petrino is undefeated in his 10-fight MMA career so far, including a trio of wins since joining the UFC. Now he prepares to go up against Tyson Pedro, who is coming off a KO victory that leaves him with three wins in his last four outings.
The 26-year-old Petrino has made a good impression in the UFC so far. He’s not the most technical striker, but he’s physically strong, athletic and attacks with aggression and good stopping power. He’s also improving his offensive wrestling to mix in takedowns and also picked up his 1st submission win last year.
The 32-year-old Pedro’s UFC career has been a bit of a mixed bag, starting off nicely but then suffering a few losses followed by a three-year layoff due to knee injuries. He’s since returned to action and gone 3-1, although that may flatter to deceive a little as his recent standard of opposition has been relatively low by UFC standards. Pedro is fairly athletic and has a 79″ reach, enabling him to strike from range with solid straight punches and kicks to the legs and body. He can also wrestle and will attack with both ground-and-pound and submissions on the mat.
There’s not really been much evidence of improvement to Pedro’s skill-set over the years and so I think as his competition level begins to increase again he’ll soon hit his ceiling. As the younger, fresher fighter Petrino is still honing his skills and I see him taking the fight to Pedro here and emerging with a 2nd round finish via TKO.
Pick: Vitor Petrino wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Muhammad Mokaev vs. Alex Perez
The undefeated Muhammd Mokaev is on a five-fight winning streak in the UFC and is only one spot below the 7th ranked flyweight Alex Perez, who is coming off back-to-back losses against top divisional talents in Deiveson Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja.
The 23-year-old Mokaev had an extensive 23-0 run as an amateur and has since gone on to deliver a 12-0 record as a pro, so his credentials are impressive for his age. It shows in his fights too as he has good composure and is an athletic, well-rounded fighter who can pose problems in multiple areas. He’s technically sound on the feet, but is more focused on his very good wrestling and will doggedly work for takedowns and has shown off his submission chops on the mat, which accounts for four of his five finishes in the UFC so far. It’s also worth noting that Mokaev has had a knack for stopping opponents late on in his fights.
After an active 2020 campaign Perez went quiet, only competing once since then and is returning on Saturday night after over 18 months out. While there’s no shame in losing to Figueiredo and Pantoja in his last couple of fights it is worth bearing in mind that both managed to tap him out in just a couple of minutes. Perez is quite versatile and will apply pressure with both striking and wrestling and maintains his aggression on the mat with strikes and submission attempts.
It’s always hard to back a fighter who has been as inactive as Perez in recent years and with his vulnerability to submissions being an issue over the years and Mokaev having had good success in that regard I believe the younger fighter will look to get this fight to the mat and had Perez is third submission loss in a row.
Pick: Muhammad Mokaev wins by submission in Rd1.
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Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan
Umar Nurmagomedov is 16-0 and has won four-in-a-row inside the UFC’s Octagon. Now he comes up against a newcomer in Bekzat Amakhan, who has compiled a 14-1 record on the regional scene.
Originally scheduled to fight a leading contender Cory Sandhagen last year before suffering a shoulder injury, it’s surprising that the highly-touted 28-year-old Nurmagomedov is now facing an unheralded newcomer. Still, the 26-year-old Almakhan does seem to be worthy of a shot in the UFC as he’s a combative striker who attacks with quick punches and kicks and has shown off his stopping power with 12 of his 14 wins coming via T(KO). He is also fairly sound defensively and will look to work in wrestling alongside his striking.
Nevertheless, it feels a bit cruel to be putting Almakhan straight in there with Nurmagomedov, the brother of Bellator champ Usman and cousin of UFC legend Khabib. Sure, Nurmagomedov is currently only ranked No.13 at 135lbs, but the expectation is that he’s on his way to big things at bantamweight. Coming from the Nurmagomedov clan it’s no surprise that he’s a strong wrestler and he has very good submission ability too. Umar impresses though by also being a talented striker who moves very well as he attacks from range with versatile kicks and good punches with the kind of speed and agility that enables him to hit without being hit in return.
Hopefully Almakhan will get another chance to prove himself in the UFC, but in this instance I expect Nurmagomedov to just be too much for him, with his superior ground skills eventually being the key to a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov wins by submission in Rd2.
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Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg
After being KO’d in his last Octagon outing in December of 2022, Matt Schnell finally returns against Steve Erceg, who has won both of his UFC fights so far to go 11-1 overall.
The 34-year-old Schnell is a good fighter who is particularly effective with his grappling and has racked up numerous submission stoppages, but he’s also a willing striker who puts together combinations nicely and attacks with speed. However, Schnell is a little too eager to turn up the heat on his opponents for someone with a suspect chin and so while he’s picked up some nice wins over the years he’s also suffered four KO losses in the UFC, including in his last fight.
The 28-year-old Erceg is less reckless in his approach, showing good composure so far in the UFC. He’s a big flyweight, but isn’t the most agile for the weight class. Nevertheless he has a nicely rounded set of skills, being an assured grappler while also being methodical with muay thai striking from range too.
Schnell can certainly still be a threat, but he’s reaching that stage where he’s moved beyond his prime years, and coming off a layoff with durability concerns I favor the seemingly more steady, dependable Erceg to put in a solid all-round performance to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Steve Erceg wins by decision.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett
Joel Alvarez vs. Ludovit Klein
Vinicius Oliveira vs. Yanis Ghemmouri
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Javid Basharat
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Claudio Ribeiro
Loik Radzhabov vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
